This weekend’s North London derby could have huge ramifications at both ends of the Premier League table. We look ahead to Sunday’s game with our Tottenham vs Arsenal prediction and preview.
Tottenham vs Arsenal: The Key Stats
The Opta supercomputer makes Arsenal overwhelming favourites for Sunday’s derby clash with Tottenham, winning 60.1% of pre-match simulations. Arsenal have won six of their last seven Premier League games against Spurs (D1), including each of the last four. They last won five in a row against them between January 1987 and January 1989. New Spurs manager Igor Tudor has started each of his last five managerial reigns with a victory, at Hajduk Split, Verona, Marseille, Lazio and Juventus.The North London derby is one of the highlights of the Premier League calendar, but few meetings between Tottenham and Arsenal have felt as momentous as Sunday’s clash.
Spurs are only five points above the relegation zone following an eight-match winless spell (four draws, four losses), their worst run within the same campaign since a nine-match stint between August and November 2007.
They are the only Premier League team without a victory in 2026, with this their worst start to a calendar year since they failed to win any of their first 10 games in 1994.
Igor Tudor faces a baptism of fire after replacing Thomas Frank at the helm, on a contract to run until the end of the season. But Spurs are not the only north London side in desperate need of points.
Arsenal looked to be in full control of the title race as recently as 8 February, when Manchester City trailed 1-0 to Liverpool at Anfield – had that result held, the Gunners would have been nine points clear with both teams having played the same number of games.
However, City launched a stirring fightback in the final 10 minutes and followed up that victory by beating Fulham on Matchday 26. Arsenal, by contrast, have thrown away leads in back-to-back draws at Brentford and Wolves, and their lead will be just two points by the time they take to the field for this one if City beat Newcastle on Saturday.
Wednesday’s capitulation from 2-0 up at Molineux was a particularly tough result for Mikel Arteta to take. Following goals from Bukayo Saka and Piero Hincapié, his team were assigned a 98.1% chance of taking all three points, but after Hugo Bueno’s curler and Tom Edozie’s debut goal in stoppage time, they had to settle for one and were taunted by the Wolves fans as they trudged from the field.
Tottenham vs Arsenal
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1 day ago Ali TweedaleIt is fair to question whether Arsenal’s nerves are jangling somewhat. Only Crystal Palace and West Ham (both 8) have dropped more points from winning positions in the Premier League in 2026 than the Gunners (7), who have failed to win from a leading position in three of their last five league games (W2 D2 L1).
It was the first time in Premier League history that a side starting the day top of the table had failed to win after going two goals up in a game against the bottom club. The Opta supercomputer still makes Arsenal title favourites with a 79.7% chance, but that figure has tumbled considerably and will only fall further if they do not win on Sunday.
Arsenal did at least lift their supporters’ spirits by announcing a new long-term contract for Saka on Thursday, after he ended his 15-game goal drought when deployed in a new-look number 10 role against Wolves.
And they have very fond memories of this season’s reverse fixture against Spurs, a 4-1 rout at the Emirates Stadium that saw Eberechi Eze – who almost joined Tottenham in August – score a hat-trick. Eze has six goals in his last four Premier League appearances against Spurs overall, including three in two trips to the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium.
Few teams have required a new manager bounce as much as Spurs, but in Tudor, they have a coach well-versed in providing a quick boost.
Indeed, Tudor has won his first match in charge during each of his last five managerial stints, starting with his second spell at Hajduk Split in February 2020 (also with Hellas Verona, Marseille, Lazio and Juventus).
The only previous instance of a Spurs manager making his bow against Arsenal, however, ended in defeat, as they went down 2-1 in an FA Cup semi-final under Glenn Hoddle at Old Trafford in April 2001.
Tottenham will again be without captain Cristian Romero, who is two matches into his four-game ban, which will be a blow at both ends of the field. Tottenham have scored more Premier League goals via defenders both overall (10) and as a percentage of their total goals (28%) than any other side in 2025-26.
Their lengthy list of absentees also includes Lucas Bergvall, Mohammed Kudus, Rodrigo Bentancur, Dejan Kulusevski and Destiny Udogie, though Pedro Porro and Richarlison may be able to return.
Arsenal could welcome back Kai Havertz and Martin Ødegaard, but Mikel Merino is out for the long term.
Tottenham vs Arsenal Head-to-Head
Arsenal have won six of their last seven Premier League games against Tottenham (one draw), including each of the last four. They last won five league games in a row against them between January 1987 and January 1989.
And things have not been much better for Spurs when only considering home games.
They have lost their last three Premier League games against Arsenal on their own turf, as many defeats as they suffered in their previous 23 (W10 D10). They last lost four in a row against their neighbours between 1952 and 1955.
Arsenal also boast a fine record in London derbies more generally. Since their last league defeat against Spurs in May 2022, Arsenal have lost just one of their 21 away games against fellow London clubs in the Premier League (14 wins, 6 draws), not losing one since going down 2-1 at Fulham in December 2023.
Arteta has won 41 of his 68 Premier League London derbies as manager, the best win rate (60.3%) of anyone to take charge of at least 20 such matches. Overall, only Arsène Wenger (106 from 194 games) and José Mourinho (42/70) have won more London derbies than the Spaniard.
Tottenham vs Arsenal Prediction
Despite Arsenal’s recent wobbles, the Opta supercomputer has very much sided with the visitors ahead of this pivotal match.
The Gunners are assigned a 60.1% win probability, the highest of any team on MD27, while Spurs only won 19.3% of pre-match simulations. The remaining 20.7% were drawn.
While Arsenal remain the supercomputer’s favourites to lift the title, Spurs are only given a 3.3% chance of suffering relegation in our season predictions.
Tottenham vs Arsenal Predicted Lineups
Tottenham: Guglielmo Vicario, Archie Gray, Radu Dragusin, Micky van de Ven, Djed Spence, Yves Bissouma, Pape Sarr, Conor Gallagher, Xavi Simons, Randal Kolo Muani, Dominic Solanke.
Head coach: Igor Tudor
Arsenal: David Raya, Jurriën Timber, William Saliba, Gabriel Magalhães, Piero Hincapié, Martín Zubimendi, Declan Rice, Noni Madueke, Bukayo Saka, Gabriel Martinelli, Viktor Gyökeres.
Head coach: Mikel Arteta
Opta Power Rankings
The Opta Power Rankings are a global team ranking system. They assign an ability score to over 15,000 domestic football teams. This score is on a scale between zero and 100, where zero is the worst-ranked team in the world and 100 is the best team in the world.
Ahead of kick-off on Sunday, here is the Opta Power Ranking for both sides.
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Tottenham vs Arsenal Prediction: Can Debutant Tudor Further Dent Gunners’ Title Hopes in North London Derby? Opta Analyst.
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