Shota Imanaga’s Home Run Troubles Bite the Cubs Yet Again ...Middle East

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There are two things I want to make sure to say here at the top of this post.

First: Shota Imanaga has often been an excellent big league starting pitcher, has the potential to be great on any given day, and is one of the most likable Cubs players of this era. I am rooting for the guy, and he’s done a lot for the Cubs. But at present, he would not be startable on a playoff roster, with the same issues that plagued him late last year – and caused so much doubt about his role in the playoffs – popping up again.

    Second: Javier Assad started yesterday for Iowa, throwing 5.1 good innings. He has a 3.46 ERA in the big leagues this year despite riding the shuttle (level and roles), and a 3.43 career ERA. The strikeout rate remains paper thin, and even the batted ball metrics don’t entirely explain his success, but he’s now done nothing but succeed in the big leagues for 414.1 innings across parts of five seasons.

    I’m not yet making a particular argument with those two points, though it’s fair to note that concern about Imanaga’s homer issues is hardly new, nor is drum-banging to keep Assad on the big league roster ….

    Anyway, Shota Imanaga’s latest start was another clunker, driven once again by mistakes that found the seats. If the stuff isn’t elite and/or the command isn’t pristine, and if you’re a fly-ball pitcher by nature, well, you’re going to give up a lot of home runs. That’s just the game these days, and Imanaga gave up three homers last night to prove the point.

    “He gave up three homers, and two had men on base,” manager Craig Counsell said, per the Sun-Times. “The math doesn’t really work there as far as having a good start. We know Shota is going to give up some home runs. That’s the nature of his repertoire. Three in a start, that’s too many.”

    How many times are we going to hear the same thing? I’m sure Counsell is a bit tired of saying it, no matter how much he likes and supports Imanaga.

    That was his message, by the way, when asked about whether the Cubs were considering bouncing Shota Imanaga from the rotation.

    “He’s not having a bad season,” Counsell said. “He’s having a pretty decent season. I wouldn’t say that at all, no. We need Shota. We need Shota to be good for us. So we have to work at helping him be better.”

    Overall, Imanaga has a 4.01 ERA over 150.1 innings (1% better than average by ERA-), and his strikeout (24.0%) and walk (5.7%) rates remain strong. A pretty decent season? Yeah, I think that’s a fair descriptor.

    But that’s not really the question as we come down the stretch, and the Cubs have to start thinking about how critical every game is. Thinking about how critical every inning is. And thinking about what other arms are available.

    As I said above, we all know the problem: the home runs. And we also know that problem likely isn’t going to just magically go away after three MLB seasons.

    Incredibly, Imanaga’s HR/9 (1.98) is now higher than it was last year (1.93). Only Aaron Nola has a higher mark in baseball this season, but Imanaga has him beat in raw homers allowed (33 to 32). Given how disproportionately impactful home runs can be – one can turn a game completely – that’s 33 times an opponent has had the chance to transform a loss into a win with one swing. It’s kinda like every moment during a Shota Imanaga start is a high-leverage moment for the opponent if the game is within a few runs in either direction. That kind of thing stings bad enough in August. In late-September or October? You truly and completely cannot tolerate it.

    Some dubious history made for Shota Imanaga:

    He's the 1st pitcher in Cubs history to allow 3+ HR in a game 6 times in one season. Old mark was 5 set by Greg Maddux in 2004. t.co/sbhtxcRrZL

    — Jesse Rogers (@JesseRogersESPN) August 31, 2026

    Tonight marks the 6th time this year Shota Imanaga has allowed 3 or more homers in a game.That's the most by any lefty in a single season in MLB history. pic.twitter.com/ZTc0dHSpe3

    — OptaSTATS (@OptaSTATS) August 31, 2026

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