Although the MLB Draft Lottery will not be conducted until the Winter Meetings in December, and although the MLB Postseason is not fully complete, we do already know juuuust about where the Chicago Cubs will be drafting in the first round in 2026.
The 18 teams that missed the postseason are eligible for a draft lottery that can shift around their spot (except for the clubs that have made themselves ineligible by being really bad too many years in a row (Rockies, Nationals, and Angels). After those 18 spots, the postseason teams pick in reverse order of when they were bounced from the playoffs (with various tiebreakers for teams bounced in the same round).
You go through that, and you land at the Chicago Cubs set to pick 24th in the first round in 2026.
There is one asterisk to the Cubs’ spot, though, and it’s sufficiently large for me to say the Cubs probably won’t actually be picking 24th!
Since postseason teams are ineligible for the draft lottery, nothing that happens there will directly move the Cubs’ pick, but there is one thing that could happen that would move another pick in such a way that it could bump the Cubs’ pick up a spot. And, mathematically, that’s very likely to happen.
Because the New York Mets, a lottery-eligible team, spent beyond the second tier of the luxury tax, their first round pick is set to move back 10 spots unless they move up into the top-6 picks. The current neutral spot for the Mets is 17, so if nothing funky happens for them in the lottery – only about a 3% shot of moving up – they will drop back to 27. That will, in turn, move those intervening ten spots up a pick, which would mean the Cubs pick 23rd, not 24th.
So, there is just about a 97% chance the Cubs will be picking 23rd in the first round in 2026, and about a 3% chance they’ll be picking 24th. The difference will all come down to whether the Mets jump in the lottery in December.
At 23, the Cubs would be picking six spots lower in the first round than they did earlier this year. But, hey, a mini-playoff-run ain’t free.
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