By Matt Egan, CNN
Washington (CNN) — The diplomatic breakthrough between Washington and Tehran is a potential gamechanger for Iran’s war-battered economy, former Trump energy secretary Dan Brouillette told CNN in an exclusive interview.
The 14-point framework agreement, signed by President Donald Trump this week, delivers an immediate lifeline to Iran by allowing the OPEC nation to restart its economic engine: selling oil and fuel.
“It’s enormously helpful to them,” said Brouillette, now a distinguished visiting fellow at Columbia University’s Center on Global Energy Policy.
Brouillette, who served as US energy secretary between 2019 and 2021, said the US blockade of Iran was “very effective” in forcing Tehran to the negotiating table by piling pressure on the Iranian economy.
Inflation in Iran has skyrocketed above 50%. Unemployment is rampant. And basic goods are in short supply.
“The people of Iran need to be optimistic about their future,” Brouillette said. “Part of being optimistic is that they’re going to have some of this infrastructure rebuilt, so they have an economic future.”
‘Too generous’ to Iran
The US-Iran framework has sparked a bipartisan backlash, with some arguing it provides too much support for Iran.
Former Vice President Mike Pence told CNN’s Kaitlan Collins this week that the US-Iran agreement “smacks of” appeasement, while GOP Sen. Bill Cassidy called it the “worst foreign policy blunder in decades.”
Brouillette expressed concern that the US-Iran agreement is “a little too generous” to Iran, including by giving Iran “certain things up front,” such as the right to immediately sell oil. He noted estimates that the sale of oil and fuel could generate $60 billion a year for Iran.
Brouillette noted that in the past, Iran used its financial resources to “fund organizations that were adversarial to their neighbors in the region, as well as to the United States.”
“We’re going to have to keep an eye on that. If they return to funding proxies around the world again, I say all bets are off,” Brouillette said.
Trump warns of ‘bedlam’ if no deal
US officials have stressed that the framework is performance-based and that Iran’s new ability to sell oil could get rolled back if negotiations aren’t productive.
“As they dial up their good behavior, we can dial up the economic relief,” Vice President JD Vance said Thursday. “If they dial down their good behavior, we can turn it off.”
Brouillette, who currently co-chairs the DC-based law firm Torridon Law, said he would have waited on some of the terms in the agreement.
“Perhaps I would have done things a little differently… I want to see more performance, if you will, before I would release sanctioned funds or create some new fund for the rebuilding of Iran,” he said.
However, Brouillette also emphasized that he’s not at the negotiating table with Iran and is only looking at the situation from the “cheap seats.”
Trump said on Wednesday that if the war continued, there would have been a 1929-style “economic catastrophe.”
“We run out of reserves in about four weeks,” Trump said. “There would be a time when you wouldn’t be able to get it, and you want to see bedlam?”
‘Dangerously’ low oil stockpiles
Brouillette said he suspects the shrinking oil reserves – both commercial and emergency stockpiles – likely pressured US officials to reach a deal.
“That situation is real,” he said. “They’re not forever reserves, you know? If you’re drawing down on them, at some point you do reach a point of no return.”
Oil stockpiles at the critical oil hub of Cushing, Oklahoma, have plunged to the bare minimum of what is needed to operate.
“We’re getting dangerously close to that pressure point where we can’t get it out,” Brouillette said, adding that reserves must be quickly refilled.
US intelligence agencies have recently concluded that Iran can effectively shut down access to the Strait of Hormuz at will from now on, sources told CNN’s Zachary Cohen and Natasha Bertrand.
Brouillette said he’s hopeful Iran won’t try to close the Strait of Hormuz again but conceded Iranian officials have already demonstrated their ability to do so.
“Can they do it again? Yeah, of course they can, he said. “I mean, it’s in their backyard.”
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