ROCHESTER, N.Y. – Temperatures across Western New York rebounded into the upper-60s and Rochester saw of high of 68 degrees on Sunday. Dansville also saw a high of 69 degrees! To put this into perspective, Rochester’s average high temperature for November 1st is 55 degrees. This is just a prelude of what is to come this week.
Sunday evening will bring mostly clear skies across Western New York before some clouds move in from the southeast later through the night. The Ohio Valley will continue to deal with rain showers, but surface high pressure will continue to hold off any moisture from moving further into our region. Overnight lows will stay above normal with much of the region staying in the mid to upper 40s. Winds could be a little breezy at times out of the southwest between 10 and 15 mph with a few gusts possible between 15 and 20 mph.
As the center of this surface high pressure drifts off the Mid Atlantic coast, a strong upper-level ridge will continue to amplify and strengthen. This will lead to increased movement of warm Gulf air moving into the Great Lakes region. Monday will likely bring temperatures close, if not to, 70 degrees. Winds will remain out of the southwest at 10 to 15 mph. This area of surface high pressure will hold off rain for Monday. This unusual November pattern continues into Tuesday as a warm front moves southwest to northeast across our region. As the surface low pressure system attached to this warm front moves closer to the eastern Great Lakes, continued southwest wind will enhance warm air movement into the eastern Great Lakes. The warm front could bring some scattered showers in the morning; however, the rest of the day looks dry. Highs continue to remain in the low-70s for Tuesday.
Wednesday could be our warmest day this week, as the surface low pressure system to our west and surface high pressure system to our east work together to funnel even more warm air into the eastern Great Lakes. This will likely result in temperatures climbing into the mid-70s for most. The upper-70s are not impossible for a few spots across Western New York. Right now, most of Wednesday looks dry with shower chances increasing later in the evening. Wednesday night into Thursday, moisture transport could bring scattered to widespread rain showers across the Northeast. These showers may linger into Friday and Saturday, though the exact timing of this system is still to be determined as data remains inconsistent. Even though the Climate Prediction Center’s current 6-10 Day Temperature Outlook predicts our region has a 40-60% chance of seeing above average temperatures through this weekend into the beginning of next week, data is still showing a drastic cooldown from this week’s mid-70s temperatures into the low-50s and 40s by the weekend.
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