Although the Ice Man wasn’t able to pull another rabbit out of his helmet on Sunday, Caleb Williams is having one hell of a sophomore season in Chicago.
I’m not breaking any news here, but I want to remind you that after throwing for 330 yards in a shootout against the 49ers on Sunday night, and with one game left in the season, Williams now stands on the doorstep of Chicago Bears history. He is (1) 109 yards away from Erik Kramer’s single-season passing yardage record and (2) 270 yards away from becoming the first 4,000-yard passer in franchise history.
Whether he gets there or not, I think we’re all happy with the QB he’s blossomed into this season. But here’s the thing … he’s also been uniquely unlucky this year in terms of dropped passes and missing yards.
Sergio Estrada-Imagn ImagesCaleb Williams: Bad Luck on Drops
I am not trying to make excuses for Caleb Williams — or say anything bad about his collection of receivers, almost all of whom have gotten significantly better as the season has gone on, especially Luther Burden and Colston Loveland. But this pretty striking stat came across my timeline yesterday, and I thought you should know about it before I build it out a bit.
Most pass yards lost due to drops this season, per @NextGenStats : 1. Caleb Williams – 3702. Matthew Stafford – 3633. Trevor Lawrence – 3204. Dak Prescott – 3195. Bo Nix – 3136. Jordan Love – 2877. Justin Herbert – 2668. Cam Ward – 256 t.co/ltZMS2YmmN
— NFL Researcher (@NFL_Researcher) December 30, 2025All quarterbacks are going to have dropped passes. And it’d be patently wrong to just add that number to his total to push him over 4,000 yards. But whenever you are the extreme of a stat like this, it does qualify as important context.
But there’s a little bit more to it, too. Because it’s not just a few big plays skewing the total pass yards lost due to drops this season. In other words, you could imagine how one or two big plays could skew the data. No, it’s a volume thing, too.
By now, we all know Caleb Williams’ completion percentage is the one “red flag” to which any doubters point whenever they want to pull back on the optimism in Chicago. And to an extent, that’s understandable.
2025 Completion% Leaderboard
1. Drake Maye: 71.7%2. Mac Jones: 69.6%3-4. Josh Allen/Brock Purdy: 69.3%5-6. Kyler Murray/Jared Goff: 68.3%….39. Caleb Williams: 57.9%
Of 41 qualified QBs (min. 135 pass attempts), Caleb Williams’ 57.9% completion rate ranks third worst, ahead of only Shedeur Sanders and J.J. McCarthy.
HOWEVER, his expected completion percentage (65.2%) ranks 12th in the league. And more to the point, that -7.2% gap between his actual and expected completion rate ranks first in the entire NFL.
In other words, no other QB has been LESS lucky (or more unlucky, however you want to say it) than Caleb Williams has been on dropped passes.
1. Caleb Williams is now 8th in the NFL in passing yards (3,730) and 9th in touchdowns (25).He has achieved this despite having the worst completion percentage in the league this season.This is the INEFFICIENT version of him.Whew.#Bears pic.twitter.com/oowPFNrTvQ
— Erik Lambert (@ErikLambert1) December 30, 2025Now, is that because of how hard he throws it, when he throws it, or the rookie pass catchers? Maybe a little bit of everything (except the rookies … because they freakin’ rock). But it stands out, and as Erik Lambert points out above, it’s hardly slowed him down. But for me, the takeaway is that the extreme-ness of his drop% makes some of those 370 missing passing yards feel a bit more earned than for any other QB.
So who’s been the biggest offender among his pass catchers? The backup running back we all love, Kyle Monangai, and a 28-year-old receiver on a one-year contract, Olamide Zaccheaus, who’s been thrust into heavier duty on occasion because of various injuries to the receiver room.
Bears Dropped Passes Leaderboard:
Kyle Monangai: 6 dropped passes (20.7 drop%) Olamide Zaccheaus: 5 (7.7%) D.J. Moore: 4 (4.9%) Luther Burden: 3 (5.4%) D’Andre Swift: 3 (6.5%) Rome Odunze: 2 (2.2%) Cole Kmet: 2 (4.4 drop%) Colston Loveland: 1 (1.4%) Durham Smythe: 1 (16.7 drop%)Ultimately, I hope Caleb Williams blows past the requisite 270 yards this weekend (why not throw in 4 TDs too to tie that franchise record?), so that we don’t have to mention this ever again. But if he doesn’t, I know I’ll have the outlying volume of drops stuck in my mind as yet another reason to really believe he is the guy.
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