Cubs Playoff Odds — The Chicago Cubs have dropped the first game of their series in five of their last six matchups (Twins, Yankees, Royals, White Sox, Brewers) and eight of their last twelve. And while they’ve come back to win one or multiple games plenty of times thereafter, last night’s Game 1 loss in Milwaukee hurts twice as much, because it came against the Brewers.
And with that, Milwaukee took back over the NL Central.
NL Central Standings
MIL: 63-43 (0.0 GB) CHC: 62-44 (1.0 GB) CIN: 56-51 (7.5 GB) STL: 55-53 (9.0 GB) PIT: 45-62 (18.5 GB)Now, because the Cubs are still 18 games over .500, they actually hold the second-best record in the National League. And while that (unfortunately) would not grant them a first-round bye, it does still put them well in control of a spot in the postseason. It’s just that for what I believe is the first time this season, the Brewers playoff odds just jumped the Cubs.
Cubs Playoff Odds:
FanGraphs Playoff Odds:
Brewers: 95.4%Cubs: 95.2%
FanGraphs Division Win Odds:
Brewers: 50.2%Cubs: 48.0%
FanGraphs is, however, the low man on the Cubs.
Baseball Reference has a similar gap, but in the Cubs’ favor (99.6% to 99.1%), while PECOTA is still heavily skewed Cubs: 99.0% vs 91.2%.
So … I choose to believe PECOTA is by the far the best and every other playoff projection system is garbage.
Please, go win tonight, Cubs.
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