Josh Allen did not take a snap in Week 7, and he still came out of the weekend in better shape than almost anyone chasing him. The Bills were on bye. Meanwhile, Brock Purdy and Patrick Mahomes both lost for the first time this season, and the NFL MVP odds board reshuffled around a guy who spent Sunday on his couch.
Allen is the MVP favorite at every major sportsbook as of Tuesday morning. He sits at +170 at DraftKings and Caesars, +160 at bet365, +150 at FanDuel, and +140 at BetMGM. Nobody else is close to that range.
Here is where the race stands after Week 7, who moved, and which prices are actually worth a look.
Bills quarterback Josh Allen celebrates a touchdown in a 38-10 win over the Raiders.NFL MVP Odds After Week 7
These are the DraftKings prices as of Tuesday, October 27. The book-by-book spread follows below, because the gaps between sportsbooks are bigger than you might think.
Josh Allen, Bills: +170 Brock Purdy, 49ers: +350 Joe Burrow, Bengals: +450 Trevor Lawrence, Jaguars: +1000 Patrick Mahomes, Chiefs: +1500 Drake Maye, Patriots: +1600 Caleb Williams, Bears: +1700 Jared Goff, Lions: +2500 Jordan Love, Packers: +2800 Jahmyr Gibbs, Lions: +4000Shopping the MVP Board
Futures prices are not uniform, and with odds this long, a few hundred points is real money. A few examples from Tuesday’s board:
Brock Purdy ranges from +350 at DraftKings and Caesars to +500 at BetMGM. Joe Burrow ranges from +450 at DraftKings and BetMGM to +600 at FanDuel. Patrick Mahomes ranges from +1500 at DraftKings and Caesars to +2000 at FanDuel. Caleb Williams is +1200 at BetMGM but +1800 at Caesars.If you like Burrow, why take +450 when FanDuel hands you +600 on the same outcome? Check at least three books before you fire on any futures bet.
Dec 14, 2025; Foxborough, Massachusetts, USA; Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen (17) passes the ball against the New England Patriots in the second half at Gillette Stadium. Mandatory Credit: David Butler II-Imagn ImagesWhy Josh Allen Is the MVP Favorite
The Bills went into their bye at 5-1, and Allen has been the steadiest MVP candidate all season. He beats you with his arm and his legs, and voters love a quarterback who does a little of everything.
Week 7 helped him without him lifting a finger. Allen was +165 at DraftKings a day earlier and is +170 now, so the price barely moved. That tells you the market already had him priced as the clear leader. Purdy’s loss just widened the gap.
Is +170 a good bet with ten-plus games to go? I am lukewarm on it. You are laying a short price on a long season, and Buffalo’s schedule gets real right away with Baltimore coming to town Sunday. If you want Allen, BetMGM’s +140 is the worst number on the board. DraftKings or Caesars at +170 is the one to grab.
Brock Purdy Takes a Hit
The 49ers lost 29-20 at Atlanta on Sunday, their first loss of the season. Purdy threw two interceptions, and San Francisco played without Mike Evans, Deebo Samuel, and Nick Bosa. Christian McCaffrey also got banged up and is dealing with a mild hamstring strain.
Purdy was +225 at DraftKings over the weekend. He is +350 now. One bad afternoon without his top receivers knocked him well off the pace.
Honestly? I think the market overreacted a touch. San Francisco has the bye in Week 8, and Kyle Shanahan said Evans, Bosa, and Samuel have a chance to return after it. If Purdy gets his weapons back, +500 at BetMGM is the price I would rather own than Allen at +170.
Jan 4, 2026; Cincinnati, Ohio, USA; Cincinnati Bengals quarterback Joe Burrow (9) looks to pass against the Cleveland Browns during the second half at Paycor Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Katie Stratman-Imagn ImagesJoe Burrow Is the Biggest Mover
Nobody did more for his MVP case in Week 7 than Burrow. Cincinnati blew out Baltimore 35-13, scoring 35 unanswered points in the second half, and Burrow threw four touchdown passes.
His DraftKings price went from +950 on Sunday morning to +500 on Monday, and it shortened again to +450 on Tuesday. That is a massive move for one game.
The Bengals host Tennessee on Sunday, which sets up nicely for another big stat line. That is exactly the problem with buying now, though. Everybody can see the soft schedule spot, and the price already reflects it. FanDuel at +600 is the only Burrow number I would consider.
Patrick Mahomes Falls Out of the Top Tier
Kansas City lost 20-3 at Seattle on Sunday night. It was the Chiefs’ first loss, and three points is about as ugly as it gets for this offense. Mahomes has gone two straight games without a touchdown pass.
He drifted from +950 to +1500 at DraftKings overnight. The Chiefs go to Denver on Sunday with a division lead that is shrinking fast.
Is this a buy-low spot? Maybe, but I need to see a functioning passing game first. Kansas City has been without Rashee Rice, and the offensive line has been patched together. A long price on a broken offense is still a bad bet.
Caleb Williams and the Chicago Case
Now for the one Bears fans care about. Chicago beat New England 30-24 last Thursday night at Soldier Field to get to 5-2. Williams went 22 of 33 for 308 yards and two touchdowns. It was his second straight 300-yard game since coming back from his hamstring injury.
His DraftKings price has been flying. He was +6500 before that game, +2200 by Monday, and +1700 on Tuesday.
The narrative is building, too. MVP voters care about stories, and a young quarterback carrying the Bears into the NFC race is a good one.
The catch is the price shopping. BetMGM has him at +1200, which is the worst number available. Caesars has him at +1800. If you are going to take a swing on the Bears quarterback, take the bigger number. Chicago heads to Seattle on Monday, November 2, and a win there would push this price down again.
Other MVP Names to Watch
Trevor Lawrence sits fourth at +1000 after Jacksonville’s bye. He did not have to do anything to hold his spot, much like Allen.
Drake Maye slid to +1600 after the loss in Chicago. Jared Goff moved to +2500 after Detroit beat Green Bay 20-17 on a walk-off field goal. Jordan Love is +2800 on the other side of that game.
Jahmyr Gibbs at +4000 is the only non-quarterback in the top ten. History says that is a long shot for a reason. Voters almost always pick a quarterback.
How to Bet NFL MVP Odds
If you are new to futures, the MVP market works differently from a game bet. Your money is tied up until the award is announced after the season. That matters.
Shop every book. The gaps on this board run several hundred points on most players. Bet small. A futures ticket is a long-term hold, not a weekly play. Think about narrative, not just stats. Team record and storyline drive the vote. Avoid chasing a price right after a big game. Burrow at +450 is less attractive than Burrow at +950 was on Sunday morning.My overall lean? The value sits behind Allen, not on him. Purdy at +500 with a healthier roster coming back is the best number on the board right now.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who is the NFL MVP favorite after Week 7?
Josh Allen is the favorite. His price ranges from +140 at BetMGM to +170 at DraftKings and Caesars as of Tuesday, October 27.
What are Caleb Williams’ MVP odds?
Williams is +1700 at DraftKings. He is as short as +1200 at BetMGM and as long as +1800 at Caesars.
Why did Joe Burrow’s MVP odds move?
Burrow threw four touchdown passes as Cincinnati beat Baltimore 35-13 in Week 7. His DraftKings price shortened from +950 to +450 in two days.
Why did Brock Purdy and Patrick Mahomes drop?
Both lost for the first time this season in Week 7. Purdy threw two interceptions in a 29-20 loss at Atlanta, and Kansas City scored three points in a 20-3 loss at Seattle.
When is the NFL MVP announced?
The MVP is announced after the regular season, before the Super Bowl. That means any MVP bet stays open for months.
Responsible Gambling
Futures bets are fun because they give you a rooting interest all season. They also tie your money up for months. Only put down what you can afford to have locked away and possibly lose.
Set a budget for your whole season of betting, not just one weekend. Keep futures to a small slice of it, since you will not know the result until winter.
Treat betting as entertainment. Use the deposit limits and time-out tools your sportsbook offers, and if it stops being fun, take a break and talk to someone you trust.
21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER. Responsible Gaming Resources
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