I’m not going to do the preamble every time free agent Tarik Skubal comes up this offseason, because you already know the drill: he’s a perfect fit for the Cubs, obviously, but there is nothing in evidence yet for the organization that indicates they will spend to the level required to sign him.
There’s a first time for everything, but, let’s be clear, signing Skubal would be a clear “first time” situation for the Cubs.
Still, they are listed among six potential suitors by Mark Feinsand in his early analysis of the Tarik Skubal free agency:
“With Shota Imanaga, Clay Holmes, Kevin Gausman, Matthew Boyd and David Peterson all likely headed to free agency, Chicago will certainly be looking for starting pitching this offseason.
The biggest question is whether the Cubs will be willing to go outside of their comfort zone when it comes to the cost of acquiring Skubal, who will likely command at least twice as much as the biggest contracts in franchise history.”
To that point, Feinsand goes on to suggest that Skubal’s deal could break the record for largest pitcher guarantee ($325 million) AND largest annual value ($43.33 million). As I’ve said, something topping $400 million or approaching $500 million would not surprise me in the least. Even north of $500 million can’t be a shocker given what has happened to deals at the very top of the market.
And, with apologies, I just don’t see the Cubs committing the largest deal in franchise history (by a mile) to a pitcher. I want them to do it. But I don’t think they will.
The other teams mentioned by Feinsand are the Dodgers, Tigers, Mets, Blue Jays, and Phillies. You could maybe say the Tigers won’t go to that level, and that the Mets, Blue Jays, and Phillies already have so many huge contracts on the books that maybe they don’t want to add another. But you can’t really say too much about the Dodgers (unless you buy the idea that the insurance company investigation stuff will scare the org off from a new gigantic commitment).
From the previous discussion, where Patrick Mooney had discussed Skubal and the Cubs as maybe possibly remotely plausible, and I was guarding my heart:
The specifics there are perhaps less intriguing to me than the speaker. Patrick Mooney is a great reporter, but one thing he is not is a sunshine-pumper. Although he very clearly does not say in there that the Cubs are going to go all out for Tarik Skubal or whatever other phrasing you might want, the mere fact that Mooney is leaving this possibility on the table at the open of the offseason tells me that, at a minimum, he has not heard that the door is ALREADY closed. Which is small. But interesting.
Again, I circle back to everything I said at the top. There isn’t anything in the historical record to which we could point that says the Cubs are likely to get involved in this type of bidding war. Until proven otherwise, that matters more than any dot-connecting we might do with various opinions out there. I’m not denying that.
I suppose I was just surprised that this topic wasn’t dismissed out of hand.
And who knows? Maybe the facility in Arizona near his home helps. Maybe the friendship with Alex Bregman helps. Maybe Tarik Skubal loves Chicago and Wrigley Field. We certainly know the Cubs would LOVE to have him (Michael just wrote about why Tarik Skubal is such a dead-bang obvious need for the Cubs). Maybe all of that is enough to at least have a seat at the table and try to make a competitive offer.
The Cubs have loads of money coming off the books this offseason, and loads of need for impact starting pitching. On paper, they could make this happen. And maybe you’d argue the Dodgers’ ownership issues will reduce their aggressiveness. And maybe you’d argue the Mets’ failings despite the huge payroll make them shift course. And maybe you’d argue the Yankees are overflowing with pricey starting pitching already. And maybe you could make a bunch of other arguments for the highest-spending teams. Maybe if Skubal comes in at the lower-end of estimates ($350 million to $400 million?), the Cubs shock everyone and step up. Again with all the maybes.
I won’t be getting my hopes up any time soon, but just as it’s impossible to poo-poo the spending side of this discussion, it’s impossible to ignore how perfect Tarik Skubal is for these Cubs at this moment in time. How often do you get a shot like this?
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