By Terin Frodyma on SwimSwam
USA Swimming released the qualifying standards for the 2028 US Olympic Trials in Indianapolis, based on a predictive model that analyzes 15 years of results to set these times.
First, we will be comparing the women’s and men’s US Olympic Trials qualifying standards from every year since 2012 (post-super suit era), including both wave I and II of the 2020(1) trials.
This report will also compare the current 2028 standards to those of the 2024 edition.
The 2028 US Olympic Trials is targeting an athlete attendance of about 1000-1100, similar to the 2024 Olympic Trials. However, there is an area of uncertainty with the inclusion of the 50s stroke.
All US Olympic Trials Qualifying Times (2012, 2016, 2020 Waves I and II, 2024, 2028):
Women 2012 Women 2016 Women 2020/21 (Wave I) Women 2020/21 (Wave II) Women 2024 Women 2028 EVENT Men 2028 Men 2024 Men 2020/21 (Wave II) Men 2020/21 (Wave I) Men 2016 Men 2012 26.39 26.19 25.99 25.65 25.69 25.69 50 FR 22.69 22.79 22.71 23.19 23.29 23.49 57.19 56.49 56.29 55.56 55.79 55.79 100 FR 49.79 49.99 49.74 50.49 50.69 51.49 2:03.19 2:02.39 2:01.69 2:00.24 2:00.89 2:00.79 200 FR 1:49.59 1:49.99 1:49.65 1:50.79 1:51.89 1:52.89 4:19.39 4:17.99 4:16.89 4:13.28 4:15.49 4:15.49 400 FR 3:55.49 3:55.59 3:54.21 3:57.29 3:58.69 3:59.99 8:50.49 8:49.99 8:48.09 8:44.01 8:45.79 8:45.79 800 FR 8:07.99 8:09.69 8:08.95 8:12.99 – – – – 16:49.19 16:44.60 16:45.69 16:45.69 1500 FR 15:36.99 15:39.89 15:35.69 15:44.89 15:49.99 15:53.59 – – – – – 28.89 50 BK 25.59 – – – – – 1:03.99 1:03.39 1:02.69 1:01.49 1:01.89 1:01.79 100 BK 55.39 55.69 55.51 56.59 57.19 57.59 2:17.99 2:16.59 2:14.69 2:12.94 2:13.59 2:13.59 200 BK 2:01.59 2:01.69 2:00.81 2:02.99 2:03.79 2:04.99 – – – – – 32.09 50 BR 28.09 – – – – – 1:12.19 1:11.49 1:10.99 1:09.55 1:10.29 1:10.19 100 BR 1:01.89 1:02.19 1:01.97 1:03.29 1:03.69 1:04.69 2:35.99 2:34.99 2:33.29 2:30.49 2:31.69 2:31.69 200 BR 2:15.39 2:15.99 2:15.28 2:17.89 2:18.39 2:20.79 – – – – – 26.99 50 FL 23.99 – – – – – 1:01.99 1:01.19 1:00.69 59.59 1:00.19 59.99 100 FL 53.29 53.59 53.37 54.19 54.79 55.29 2:16.49 2:14.99 2:14.59 2:12.56 2:13.69 2:13.69 200 FL 2:00.19 2:00.49 1:59.63 2:01.19 2:01.99 2:03.99 2:19.49 2:18.69 2:17.39 2:15.26 2:16.09 2:16.09 200 IM 2:02.59 2:03.49 2:03.02 2:04.09 2:05.09 2:06.59 4:55.89 4:54.99 4:51.79 4:47.72 4:49.89 4:49.79 400 IM 4:23.99 4:25.19 4:23.24 4:25.99 4:27.49 4:30.49Note that blank spaces are years the event was not contested at the US Olympic Trials
In past years, we have tracked which events had the biggest and smallest time changes, both as a percentage and in seconds. This analysis shows which events had the biggest and smallest time changes from 2012 through 2028.
Women – Biggest Differences
Largest Percentage Improvements:
100 Backstroke — 2012: 1:03.99 | 2028: 1:01.79 | Improvement: 2.20 seconds (3.44%)
100 Butterfly — 2012: 1:01.99 | 2028: 59.99 | Improvement: 2.00 seconds (3.23%)
200 Backstroke — 2012: 2:17.99 | 2028: 2:13.59 | Improvement: 4.40 seconds (3.19%)
Largest Difference in Seconds:
400 Individual Medley — 2012: 4:55.89 | 2028: 4:49.79 | Improvement: 6.10 seconds
800 Freestyle — 2012: 8:50.49 | 2028: 8:45.79 | Improvement: 4.70 seconds
200 Backstroke — 2012: 2:17.99 | 2028: 2:13.59 | Improvement: 4.40 seconds
Men – Biggest Differences
Largest Percentage Improvements:
100 Breaststroke — 2012: 1:04.69 | 2028: 1:01.89 | Improvement: 2.80 seconds (4.33%)
200 Breaststroke — 2012: 2:20.79 | 2028: 2:15.39 | Improvement: 5.40 seconds (3.84%)
100 Backstroke — 2012: 57.59 | 2028: 55.39 | Improvement: 2.20 seconds (3.82%)
Largest Difference in Seconds:
1500 Freestyle — 2012: 15:53.59 | 2028: 15:36.99 | Improvement: 16.60 seconds
400 Individual Medley — 2012: 4:30.49 | 2028: 4:23.99 | Improvement: 6.50 seconds
200 Breaststroke — 2012: 2:20.79 | 2028: 2:15.39 | Improvement: 5.40 seconds
Women – Smallest Differences
Smallest Percentage Improvements:
800 Freestyle — 2012: 8:50.49 | 2028: 8:45.79 | Improvement: 4.70 seconds (0.89%)
400 Freestyle — 2012: 4:19.39 | 2028: 4:15.49 | Improvement: 3.90 seconds (1.50%)
200 Freestyle — 2012: 2:03.19 | 2028: 2:00.79 | Improvement: 2.40 seconds (1.95%)
Smallest Differences in Seconds:
50 Freestyle — 2012: 26.39 | 2028: 25.69 | Improvement: 0.70 seconds
100 Freestyle — 2012: 57.19 | 2028: 55.79 | Improvement: 1.40 seconds
(Tie) 100 Breaststroke — 2012: 1:12.19 | 2028: 1:10.19 | Improvement: 2.00 seconds
(Tie) 100 Butterfly — 2012: 1:01.99 | 2028: 59.99 | Improvement: 2.00 seconds
Men – Smallest Differences
Smallest Percentage Improvements:
1500 Freestyle — 2012: 15:53.59 | 2028: 15:36.99 | Improvement: 16.60 seconds (1.74%)
400 Freestyle — 2012: 3:59.99 | 2028: 3:55.49 | Improvement: 4.50 seconds (1.88%)
400 Individual Medley — 2012: 4:30.49 | 2028: 4:23.99 | Improvement: 6.50 seconds (2.40%)
Smallest Differences in Seconds:
50 Freestyle — 2012: 23.49 | 2028: 22.69 | Improvement: 0.80 seconds
100 Freestyle — 2012: 51.49 | 2028: 49.79 | Improvement: 1.70 seconds
100 Butterfly — 2012: 55.29 | 2028: 53.29 | Improvement: 2.00 seconds
Now we will compare the most recent Olympic Trials cuts from 2024 to the freshly announced 2028 standards.
At first glance, the women’s standards have little to no change from 2024 to 2028, with the biggest change coming in the 100 fly, moving from 1:00.19 to 59.99.
The men’s times vary much more, with both the 800 free and 400 IM getting more than a second quicker for 2028, and the 1500 free delivering the biggest time improvement in seconds with 2.90.
Women’s Comparison:
Event 2024 Standard 2028 Standard Time Difference (sec) Percentage Change 50 Freestyle 25.69 25.69 0 0.00% 100 Freestyle 55.79 55.79 0 0.00% 200 Freestyle 2:00.89 2:00.79 0.1 0.08% 400 Freestyle 4:15.49 4:15.49 0 0.00% 800 Freestyle 8:45.79 8:45.79 0 0.00% 1500 Freestyle 16:45.69 16:45.69 0 0.00% 50 Backstroke N/C 28.89 N/A N/A 100 Backstroke 1:01.89 1:01.79 0.1 0.16% 200 Backstroke 2:13.59 2:13.59 0 0.00% 50 Breaststroke N/C 32.09 N/A N/A 100 Breaststroke 1:10.29 1:10.19 0.1 0.14% 200 Breaststroke 2:31.69 2:31.69 0 0.00% 50 Butterfly N/C 26.99 N/A N/A 100 Butterfly 1:00.19 59.99 0.2 0.33% 200 Butterfly 2:13.69 2:13.69 0 0.00% 200 Individual Medley 2:16.09 2:16.09 0 0.00% 400 Individual Medley 4:49.89 4:49.79 0.1 0.03%Men’s Comparison:
Event 2024 Standard 2028 Standard Time Difference (sec) Percentage Change 50 Freestyle 22.79 22.69 0.1 0.44% 100 Freestyle 49.99 49.79 0.2 0.40% 200 Freestyle 1:49.99 1:49.59 0.4 0.36% 400 Freestyle 3:55.59 3:55.49 0.1 0.04% 800 Freestyle 8:09.69 8:07.99 1.7 0.35% 1500 Freestyle 15:39.89 15:36.99 2.9 0.31% 50 Backstroke N/C 25.59 N/A N/A 100 Backstroke 55.69 55.39 0.3 0.54% 200 Backstroke 2:01.69 2:01.59 0.1 0.08% 50 Breaststroke N/C 28.09 N/A N/A 100 Breaststroke 1:02.19 1:01.89 0.3 0.48% 200 Breaststroke 2:15.99 2:15.39 0.6 0.44% 50 Butterfly N/C 23.99 N/A N/A 100 Butterfly 53.59 53.29 0.3 0.56% 200 Butterfly 2:00.49 2:00.19 0.3 0.25% 200 Individual Medley 2:03.49 2:02.59 0.9 0.73% 400 Individual Medley 4:25.19 4:23.99 1.2 0.45%Read the full story on SwimSwam: Comparing the 2028 Olympic Trials Qualifying Times to 2024, 2021, 2016, and 2012
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