Weather forecasters are growing more confident that a “historic” El Niño could unfold in coming months, which could have big impacts on the Chicago area’s weather.
According to the latest updates from the Climate Prediction Center, forecasters now believe there is a “greater than 90% chance” that a “very strong” El Niño pattern could develop in the Northern Hemisphere, and that it could persist through the coming fall and winter.
What’s more, forecasters now believe there is a 69% chance of a “historic” event that would shatter records, which date back to 1950 according to CPC data. Some experts have begun calling this year’s event a potential “Super El Niño,” and it could have massive impacts on weather across the entire hemisphere.
What could such a pattern mean for the Chicago area, and what exactly is going on in the Pacific Ocean? Here’s what you need to know.
What is an El Niño pattern?
An El Niño weather pattern occurs when the trade winds in the Pacific Ocean weaken, allowing warmer ocean water to be pushed to the east, toward the west coast of the Americas.
Those warmer waters can push the Pacific jet stream further south, which ultimately can have big impacts on North America, including the Chicago area.
A so-called “Super El Niño” features even warmer water pushing that jet stream further to the south, which can allow warm, dry air to flood over large swaths of the United States, according to the National Weather Service.
What is causing the stronger-than-normal event?
Climate change and warming oceans are likely at least partially to blame for the strength of this year’s developing pattern, and while there’s no guarantee that pattern will persist, confidence is growing that it will indeed have impacts on weather patterns in the United States.
What impacts could a “Super El Niño” have on the Chicago area?
Even the strongest of El Niño patterns isn’t guaranteed to impact weather in all parts of the United States, according to experts.
That caveat aside, strong El Niño events do have a chance to have significant impacts on the Chicago area’s weather, especially during the fall and winter months, according to researchers at the University of Illinois.
During those events, the Chicago area typically sees drier and warmer weather than usual, which could mean above-average temperatures and lower-than-average snowfall, according to officials.
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