Against all expectations, World Cup debutants Cape Verde are into the last 32 after drawing all three of their group-stage games. This is how they did it.
Let’s all admit it. They were only here to make up the numbers.
Before this World Cup kicked off, few of us would have given Cape Verde much chance of making a splash in North America.
When they qualified for the tournament for the first time, they became the smallest country by land area and the second smallest by population ever to do so. The fact that they were later outdone by Curaçao – an even smaller nation – in both respects took nothing away from Cape Verde’s achievement, but nor did it make them any less a minnow on this grandest of stages.
And when the World Cup began, they were barely given a hope. When the Opta supercomputer ran 25,000 simulations of the tournament, Cape Verde made it out of the group just 32.9% of the time. Only three teams in the whole tournament were given a lower chance of qualifying for the knockouts.
The expansion of the tournament to 48 teams for this edition opened up the very real possibility of getting out of the group as one of the best third-placed teams, but it was still a tall order. No debutant had made it into the knockouts since Slovakia did so in 2010.
Drawn in Group H alongside Spain and Uruguay, they faced two teams they were widely expected to lose to, and even Saudi Arabia, who beat eventual champions Argentina at the last World Cup, were no pushovers. Even with the new format allowing eight out of 12 third-placed teams to qualify for the last 32, Cape Verde faced a tough task.
But after three draws and a nervous wait at full-time after Friday’s stalemate with Saudi Arabia to find out if Spain had held on to beat Uruguay in the other game in the group, Cape Verde finished in second place to power through.
As it turned out, they didn’t even need the safety net of third place, beating two-time world champions and fourth-placed side in 2010, Uruguay, to second spot behind Spain.
The goalless draw with Saudi Arabia followed a historic result in their first ever World Cup game against Spain on Matchday 1 and a 2-2 draw with Uruguay last time out. Against all odds, Cape Verde have become the first debutant to go unbeaten in the group stage at the World Cup since Senegal in 2002.
The first two of their games followed a predictable pattern: Cape Verde had 25.7% possession against Spain and were outshot 27 to six, while they had 34.8% of the ball against Uruguay and faced 17 shots while attempting just 12.
Against Saudi Arabia, though, Cape Verde, now at home at the World Cup, asserted themselves. They had 51% possession, 15 shots to the Saudi’s seven, and registered 1.39 xG to their opponents’ 0.39.
They missed chances to win it, too. Vozinha became only the third goalkeeper in World Cup history to keep more than one clean sheet after turning 40, following Peter Shilton (three) and Dino Zoff (two). And now, with progress to the knockouts confirmed, there is a chance – albeit a slim one – that he adds to that tally.
Having confirmed their spot in the last 32, Cape Verde will face reigning champions Argentina, led by the terrifyingly in-form
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