Oil traders wagered bets worth $580 million just minutes before Trump announced he had “productive conversations” with Iran to end the war, suggesting that the president’s announcement was nothing more than a ploy to manipulate markets.
Fifteen minutes before the president’s unexpected announcement at 7:04 a.m. Monday, about 6,200 Brent and West Texas Intermediate Futures contracts changed hands, the Financial Times reported Tuesday. Trading volumes for the two benchmarks skyrocketed at the same time, and the S&P 500 share went up shortly after the trade.
“The well-timed trades echoed the flurry of large highly profitable bets made on prediction market Polymarket on the timing of the US’s attacks in recent months on Iran and Venezuela,” the Financial Times wrote.
After pledging Saturday to destroy Iran’s power stations and energy infrastructure unless Tehran reopened the Strait of Hormuz, the president swiftly changed course and announced Monday he would postpone all U.S. strikes on such infrastructure for five days, following “very good and productive conversations” between the two countries.
“BASED ON THE TENOR AND TONE OF THESE IN DEPTH, DETAILED, AND CONSTRUCTIVE CONVERSATIONS, WHICH WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE WEEK, I HAVE INSTRUCTED THE DEPARTMENT OF WAR TO POSTPONE ANY AND ALL MILITARY STRIKES AGAINST IRANIAN POWER PLANTS AND ENERGY INFRASTRUCTURE FOR A FIVE DAY PERIOD, SUBJECT TO THE SUCCESS OF THE ONGOING MEETINGS AND DISCUSSIONS,” he wrote on Truth Social.
Tehran denied Trump’s claim, however, stating there had been “no direct contact with Trump,” since the U.S. began bombing Iran almost a month ago, raising serious concerns that the president is saying whatever he wants to prevent gas prices from going up amidst soaring costs nationwide.
Trump’s announcement came just hours before U.S. stock markets opened, and the supposed pause is due to last until the end of the energy sector trading week. The president’s decision caused skyrocketing oil prices to dip almost immediately, though they have risen since then.
The president’s seemingly fake talks with Iran and the newly revealed market chaos likely means his goal of reopening the Strait of Hormuz is—and always has been—out of reach.
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