Nico Hoerner, Creating Value, and the Many Ways to Win ...Middle East

I had Nico Hoerner and the nature of a valuable player on the brain for two reasons this morning.

For one, the Red Sox-Brewers trade involving Caleb Durbin necessarily called to mind the topic of the Cubs trading Hoerner in his walk year for long-term value. How do you actually value one year of Hoerner, though, when the market may not see his impact as meaning quite as much to them as it would to the Cubs? Seems like that was always the primary disconnect here, but also there just seems to be the residual resistance to believing a guy without gaudy power numbers can be one of the 30 most valuable position players in the game (as Hoerner consistently is).

For another, I had Nico Hoerner’s value on the brain this morning because I was thinking about Tony Gwynn. No, no, no, I am not comparing the players. Instead, it was just the discussion about how Gwynn was an awesome player IN ADDITION to being an awesome contact hitter. He wasn’t merely able to make a ton of contact – he was able to be extremely productive in a way that was intimately connected to his elite contact ability, without losing the rest of what a good hitter needs at the plate.

That concept – that there are more than just a couple ways to be a valuable hitter at the plate, including elite contact ability, so long as you’re productive beyond merely making contact – made me think of Hoerner at his best. He plays elite defense at an important spot, runs the bases well, makes consistent contact on a plane that generates a high BABIP, ekes out a little power (with more to come?), and accepts walks. The total package is quite valuable, even if its shape is very different from most top-tier position players in the current era.

Then I got a third reminder of Nico Hoerner today, via this piece from Patrick Mooney at The Athletic.

Hoerner offered a quote that was not only on point overall about this year’s Chicago Cubs team, but also reminded me of this concept of the many different ways to have value, and, ultimately, the many different ways to win.

“It was an amazing playoffs and World Series,” Hoerner said, per The Athletic. “You had really high-contact, low-power guys with success. You had the home runs for the Dodgers that ended up being the difference. Amazing infield play in (Game 7). Savvy veteran pitchers. You had young guys throwing 100. It had everything. So it was a healthy reminder, I think, that there’s not one way to go about having success, even at the highest level.

“As far as how that reflects for our group, I do think we have the ability to win in a lot of different ways. Our roster is well-balanced, and that ended up being the teams that had success.”

The Cubs as a team have a lot of ways they can get it done. Nico Hoerner as a player has a lot of ways he can get it done.

For both teams and an individual player, that diversity of skill and approach not only pushes the upside higher, but it also can smooth out the inevitable troughs of a season when the match-ups aren’t great or the weather isn’t helping or the wrong guys have bumps and bruises. All the eggs in one basket means you could be in serious trouble if that basket has a hole (again, as a team or even just as an individual player).

That old maxim, “Speed never slumps,” isn’t necessarily exactly true, but it kinda gets at this concept enough to make the point. Some skills (for some players) are more susceptible to rises and falls throughout a season, and the broader your base of above-average skills, the less likely you are to feel the deepest sting of a slump. Speed is one of those skills. So is defense. So is contact.

We probably don’t emphasize this point enough when we focus so specifically on a guy’s wRC+ or his Defensive Runs Saved or even his WAR. It’s absolutely OK if a guy puts up a monster overall season on the strength of one super-elite standout element (not like you’d ever complain about a guy who can’t do much else besides hit 100 homers in a season). But for the guys who simply do a whole lotta good that adds up to great? There might be extra value there. Certainly feels like it’s the case with Nico Hoerner.

Or maybe I’m just relieved that the trade rumors are probably over now …

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