Vladimir Putin and his friends in the Kremlin will be watching events unfolding in Iran very carefully. First, because it concerns the fate of an ally in a world where Russia wants to be taken seriously as a global power but is seeing itself weakened by the loss of friends like Nicolás Maduro in Venezuela.
And second, because the Iranian demonstrators’ cries of “death to the dictator”, aimed at Supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, will have carried all the way from Iran’s streets to the red brick walls of the Kremlin – reminding Putin of his deepest fear, that he too might be driven from power one day.
This is likely why Sergei Shoigu, secretary of Russia’s security council, reportedly spoke to his Iranian counterpart, Ali Larijani, on Monday evening. Shoigu told Larijani, according to Russian media, that he “firmly condemned the latest attempt by foreign forces to interfere in Iran’s internal affairs”.
That is one aspect of contemporary politics that Russian and Iranian leaders firmly agree on: that domestic protests against economic hardship and lack of political freedom must be orchestrated from abroad.
Anyone willing to take to the streets in their countries, they believe, must have been inspired by a foreign power.
In this case, that view is strengthened by the US’s stated readiness to launch military action against Iran should the regime kill protesters. Deaths have taken place – Shoigu even offered his condolences – and no US response has followed.
A vehicle burns during protests in Tehran, Iran, on 8 January, 2026 (Photo: Khoshiran / Middle East Images / AFP via Getty Images)But Donald Trump’s warning that the US was “locked and loaded” will not have been seen as an idle threat in either country. After all, the US joined Israel in airstrikes on Iran in June 2025, targeting its nuclear facilities, military sites and government infrastructure.
On Tuesday, Trump posted on Truth Social: “Iranian Patriots, KEEP PROTESTING – TAKE OVER YOUR INSTITUTIONS!!! Save the names of the killers and abusers. They will pay a big price.”
He added: “HELP IS ON ITS WAY.”
For its part, Russia clearly feels a need to show its willingness to support an ally facing the anger of domestic protesters as well as the condemnation of the West.
The choice of Shoigu to make the call was significant. He made his political reputation as Minister of Emergency Situations in the chaotic Russia of the 1990s and later became Minister of Defence – a position he held at the time of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. Shoigu is someone Putin trusts.
Putin has been able to lean on Iran during the Ukrainian conflict. Iranian-made Shahed drones have been among the key weaponry that has rained down on Ukrainian targets, including civilian ones, over the last four years.
Small wonder then that Ukraine’s Volodymyr Zelensky on Monday called on the world to help protesters in Iran “remove those who are responsible for Iran unfortunately being what it has been”.
Russia clearly feels it is important to show its willingness to support an ally facing the anger of domestic protesters as well as the condemnation of the West.
Much of Putin’s presidency has been about crushing dissent. The Iranian government’s survival would be a boost for Moscow not only because of the weapons it supplies it with. As the West imposed sanctions on Russia in the aftermath of its full-scale invasion of Ukraine, trade between Russia and Iran has increased, growing by 16 per cent in 2024 alone.
Iran’s supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has insisted that the Islamic republic would “not back down” in the face of protests (Photo: Khamenei.ir/AFP via Getty Images)If the Iranian regime survives in its current form, Putin will be able to count on the continuing support of a country that has unfailingly backed his war on Ukraine.
Make no mistake, there is a lot at stake for the Kremlin.
Putin’s political image for the last quarter of a century has been about control at home, while also projecting power on the world stage. That means, in part, standing up for your allies, and punishing those – like Ukraine or Georgia two decades ago – that dare to seek a different path from the one decreed by decades of Moscow’s influence.
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Russia’s 2015 military intervention in Syria – a conflict in which it was on the same side as Iran – was seen as a triumph in support of a close ally.
But the short-term victory did not last – and today Bashar al-Assad is living in exile in Moscow. The Times reported earlier this month that Khamenei plans to join him there should the protests drive him out of power and the country after decades in power.
This may be wishful thinking on the part of Western intelligence agencies. But if it proved to be true, Putin’s guests will be constant reminders to the Kremlin leader of the fate he himself most dreads.
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