Mohammad Kakhi | Rakan Khader | Mowaffak al-Khouja
The Islamic State group began threatening Syria’s new government early. After “Deterrence of Aggression” factions took power, the group released a video warning the Syrian state against applying UN laws and charters.
From the outset, the group argued that if the new administration applied UN covenants and laws, it would then be subject to the obligations of war and peace. It also claimed the fall of the former regime at the hands of factions did not fall outside the framework of international will and the global order.
The group did not wait long before launching field operations. On 11 January 2025, the General Intelligence Directorate announced it had foiled an attempted bombing by the Islamic State inside the Sayyida Zaynab Shrine (south of Damascus). In May 2025, the group claimed it targeted seven members of the Syrian government in the Suwayda desert (southern Syria), and bombed a vehicle belonging to the Free Syrian Army in the Tulul al-Safa area (southeastern Suwayda countryside). These were among the first operations the group claimed on its official channels after the Syrian regime fell in December 2024.
After Syria joined the International Coalition in November 2025, the group’s operations in Syria escalated, including in areas controlled by the Syrian government. According to Enab Baladi’s monitoring, the group carried out 18 operations on Syrian territory from 16 October 2025 to 17 December 2025, eight of them in areas under Syrian government control.
Among the most notable operations attributed to the group, and praised in its official newspaper al-Naba without being formally claimed, was an attack in which a member of Syria’s Interior Ministry, two US soldiers, and a US civilian interpreter were killed in Palmyra (Tadmur, central Syria) on 13 December 2025.
The group described Syria’s joining the International Coalition as “merely an open formalization of a step al-Sharaa began secretly years ago,” claiming that “al-Sharaa moved from terrorism lists to becoming a soldier in the crusader campaign against Islam.”
In this dossier, Enab Baladi tracks the political implications of Syria’s joining the International Coalition, examines ways to curb the group’s activities, the reasons behind the rise in its activity in areas under Syrian government control, and how the Syrian state can technically benefit from joining the coalition.
Syria becomes the 90th member of the International CoalitionSyria announced its accession to the International Coalition to fight the Islamic State on 11 November 2025, coinciding with an official visit by Syria’s transitional president, Ahmed al-Sharaa, to the White House, the first visit of its kind by a Syrian president to the United States.
Syrian Information Minister Hamza al-Mustafa said on X at the time that Syria had signed a political cooperation declaration with the International Coalition, affirming its role as a partner in counterterrorism and in supporting regional stability. He added that the agreement was political and did not include any military provisions.
The International Coalition described Syria’s accession as “a pivotal milestone in regional cooperation,” saying it raised its membership to 90 states, strengthening efforts to ensure the enduring defeat of the Islamic State group.
Wael Alwan, a researcher at the Jusoor for Studies Center, said Syria’s joining the International Coalition would have “very positive” effects on the Syrian government’s ability to counter extremist and radical jihadist organizations, especially the Islamic State, through intelligence sharing and training that Syrian forces would receive, in addition to political backing.
For his part, journalist and political researcher Firas Allawi said the most significant positive result of Syria joining the coalition is recognition of the Syrian government as an international actor in the region, and reliance on it in international relations, particularly within alliances. This, he argued, could open the door for the Syrian government to enter other alliances with regional and international states.
Allawi did not believe the accession would have negative consequences, except that it would provoke the group’s sleeper cells, meaning Syrian government forces may become more vulnerable to Islamic State attacks inside Syria.
Syria’s joining the International Coalition could bolster its security and military capabilities in confronting the Islamic State group (Enab Baladi edit).
Gains from joining the International Coalition
Beyond the political gains Syria may reap from joining the International Coalition, such as strengthening ties with the United States and demonstrating that Syria has shifted from a country exporting crises to one fighting them, Damascus expects its security capabilities to improve by drawing on coalition members’ expertise and the logistical and intelligence support these countries may provide, according to experts.
US Central Command (CENTCOM) commander Admiral Bradley Cooper said on 18 December 2025 that the Syrian government has cooperated with CENTCOM forces on multiple occasions to confront specific Islamic State threats, adding that “these are the tangible security gains that can be achieved on the ground through close cooperation with Syrian forces.”
Experts believe the Syrian government’s accession to the International Coalition could serve as an important boost to its security and military capacity in fighting the Islamic State group, particularly at a time when official institutions are still being rebuilt.
According to Ammar Farhoud, a researcher specializing in politics and non-state armed groups, the most significant gains from joining include access to coalition training programs, which would enhance Syrian forces’ ability to conduct coordinated field operations. This would be complemented by technical support, including electronic devices and equipment that help with surveillance, tracking, and penetration, as well as improved communication between security units. Farhoud added that the cooperation also has a political dimension, granting the security establishment greater legitimacy in the counter-IS file.
Mutaz al-Sayyed, a researcher at the Syrian Center for Security and Defense Studies, said building a coherent security and intelligence apparatus, supported by modern technologies and effective intelligence cooperation with the coalition, would make the government better able to confront a group that has accumulated long experience in clandestine work. He added that direct international support for the army and security services, alongside addressing the social factors that fuel extremism, are a key prerequisite for achieving long-term stability.
For his part, Nawar Shaban, a researcher at the Arab Center for Contemporary Syria Studies, said the practical benefits of joining the coalition remain unclear, whether in terms of the nature of the partnership or the extent of the Defense and Interior ministries’ actual role in ongoing operations, despite what the coalition could offer in expertise and information sharing.
The Palmyra attack effect, a tougher alliance
A Syrian Interior Ministry member, two US soldiers, and a US civilian interpreter were killed, and two Syrian army personnel were wounded, in an attack that Syria’s Interior Ministry and the United States attributed to the Islamic State group in Palmyra (Tadmur, central Syria).
On the impact of the attack on Syrian-American relations, Wael Alwan, a researcher at the Jusoor for Studies Center, said the Islamic State now has a significant opportunity to monitor US patrols after the Syrian government joined the International Coalition. This, he argued, requires considerable caution from the Syrian government, as the group tracks movements in the Syrian desert through operatives embedded among civilians.
The incident is a clear example of the Syrian government’s need for regional and international support to combat extremism and terrorism in Syria, Alwan said, adding that the attack would contribute to strengthening relations between Syria and the United States.
Alwan also argued that the Syrian government has become a key US partner in countering Islamic State activity in Syria, helping shift Syria from a state exporting crises, problems, and extremism into a state that guarantees regional stability, starting with stability in Syria.
Journalist Firas Allawi, however, did not believe the incident would affect US-Syrian relations, at least in the short to medium term.
On the contrary, he said, it could lead to a “closer and tougher alliance” between the United States and Syria, because the Syrian government has strong leverage. It has fought the group before and has pressure points through its knowledge of the group’s leadership, how it fights, how it thinks, and its strategies in the region, according to Allawi.
US forces carried out military strikes against the Islamic State on 20 December 2025, after US President Donald Trump pledged a “decisive” response to the Palmyra attack.
The strikes targeted the Maadan desert area in the Raqqa countryside (northeastern Syria) and the al-Hamad desert in the Deir Ezzor countryside (eastern Syria).
More than 70 targets across multiple sites were hit using fighter jets, attack helicopters, and artillery.
The operation used more than 100 munitions for precise targeting of Islamic State infrastructure sites and weapons depots.
CENTCOM commander Brad Cooper described the operation as “decisive” in preventing the Islamic State from planning “terrorist” attacks against the United States.
A US official told NBC that the US military used A-10 and F-16 aircraft, Apache helicopters, and HIMARS systems, while Jordanian F-16s also provided support.
According to two US officials, the strikes could continue for several weeks, or even up to a month.
Poll, how Syrians viewed the Palmyra operation
Enab Baladi conducted an online poll on its website about Syrians’ views on the consequences of the Palmyra operation that resulted in the deaths of US soldiers. A total of 924 people participated, and the poll ran from 16 to 20 December.
Forty-three percent of respondents said the Palmyra attack would strengthen cooperation between the Syrian and US governments. Forty-one percent believed the attack would have no negative or positive effect on the relationship. Only 16 percent thought the incident would lead to heightened tensions between the two countries.
Syrian, US cooperation
15 Islamic State sites destroyedUS Central Command (CENTCOM), in cooperation with Syria’s Interior Ministry, carried out a joint operation between 24 and 27 November, resulting in the destruction of more than 15 sites containing Islamic State weapons depots in southern Syria.
Personnel from the Combined Joint Task Force, Operation Inherent Resolve (CJTF-OIR), alongside forces from Syria’s Interior Ministry, took part in monitoring and identifying the storage locations spread across Rural Damascus (the countryside surrounding Damascus) before targeting them through a series of airstrikes and on-the-ground demolitions carried out by engineering teams.
These operations destroyed more than 130 rockets and mortar rounds, in addition to rifles, machine guns, anti-tank mines, and materials used to manufacture improvised explosive devices.
The group’s messages, testing the response
The Islamic State group has stepped up its operations against the Syrian government since Syria announced it had joined the International Coalition, with a total of eight attacks in various governorates within Syrian government-held areas over the past 30 days.
Journalist Firas Allawi believes the group’s renewed activity after a period of dormancy is due to several factors, including the group’s sense of an existential threat after the Syrian government joined the International Coalition, as well as international pressure from the coalition on the group’s areas of influence. This, he said in comments to Enab Baladi, pushed the group to try to leap forward and reactivate its operations in the region.
According to Allawi, the group wants to send a message through these operations that it is present and remains an effective force on the ground, attempting to show that Syria’s accession to the International Coalition will not affect its activities on the ground.
Researcher Wael Alwan, of the Jusoor for Studies Center, believes Islamic State seizes any opportunity to carry out operations that undermine the Syrian government’s stabilization efforts, in an attempt to prove its cells are still active, with the aim of boosting recruitment.
Alwan agreed with Allawi that the group wants to signal it is still present to energize recruitment within its ranks, in addition to the possibility that it is being driven by external actors.
Alwan argued that Islamic State is pursuing its own agenda, as well as the agendas of internal and external actors. These external agendas, he said, want to invest in chaos and prove Syria remains unstable, in an attempt to reshuffle the cards because the interests of these local and external parties are negatively affected by Syrian stability.
The messages behind these operations pose a direct challenge to the Syrian government and a form of internal pressure, Alwan said, while also carrying messages to external parties. The group, he added, is trying to convey, in its own name and on behalf of other actors who invest in it, that it can move and operate, to present the Syrian government as incapable of controlling the security scene.
A new strategy, escalating efforts to confront it
Experts interviewed by Enab Baladi said what Islamic State is doing in Syria does not amount to a return in its previous form. Rather, it reflects a shift to a “security model” based on cells and working in the shadows.
According to Ammar Farhoud, a researcher specializing in politics and non-state armed groups, the group does not have the logistical or military capacity to hold territory or impose spatial control as it did years ago. However, it benefits from Syria’s vast geography, security fragility, and disputes among Syrian actors to reactivate its presence under a security vision that relies on high-impact attacks, not overt control.
Researcher Nawar Shaban Qabakiibo, at the Arab Center for Contemporary Syria Studies, said the “re-establishment” of the group in a traditional sense is unlikely. Still, the current security conditions allow it to carry out scattered attacks as part of what it promotes as an “operations phase,” according to its media discourse, without having the ability to control significant land areas.
“Re-establishing the group in the traditional sense is unlikely, but the current security conditions allow it to carry out scattered attacks as part of what it promotes as an ‘operations phase.’”
Nawar Shaban Qabakiibo,
researcher at the Arab Center for Contemporary Syria Studies
For his part, researcher on Islamist groups Mounir Adib said the group’s dormant cells have begun to stir, benefiting from the multiple fronts the Syrian government is dealing with. This gives it room to carry out high-impact operations in the short term, without a fixed territorial presence.
Researcher Mutaz al-Sayyed, at the Syrian Center for Security and Defense Studies, said what is happening is closer to the persistence of the group’s ideology than the return of its solid organizational structure. The group, he added, operates through individuals or cells that embrace its ideology, exploiting the fragility of the new security apparatus in an attempt to prove it has not completely disappeared, without that meaning it has regained its previous capabilities.
A US soldier shakes hands with a Syrian soldier, 12 November 2025 (CENTCOM)
Syrian government faces a security test
The Syrian government is facing a security test amid limited capabilities and accumulated challenges, as the geography that security agencies are required to cover has expanded, and as they have moved from operating within a narrow scope to dealing with the entirety of Syrian territory.
Researchers who spoke to Enab Baladi said the nature of the threat itself makes confrontation more difficult. The Islamic State group now operates through small cells that are skilled at concealment and strike in unexpected places, making countering it more dependent on intelligence capabilities and preemptive operations than on conventional military campaigns.
Since 2019, the Syrian government has been confronting a group that has accumulated long experience in clandestine work. This requires strengthening the work of security agencies in monitoring sensitive areas, particularly along the Aleppo Damascus corridor, in addition to deepening cooperation with the International Coalition and benefiting from previous experiences in Idlib and al-Tanf, according to Ammar Farhoud, a researcher specializing in politics and non-state armed groups.
Farhoud added that efforts are also needed on the ideological and community levels to prevent people from being drawn into the group’s recruitment propaganda, which exploits the religious sentiments of society.
For his part, Mutaz al-Sayyed, a researcher at the Syrian Center for Security and Defense Studies, said the government is still in a phase of recovery and rebuilding and lacks a cohesive security structure and sufficient resources. Building an effective security and intelligence apparatus, supported by modern technologies and direct international support, remains a fundamental condition for confronting this threat and ensuring long-term stability.
SDF and fighting the group, will the card be taken away?Fighting the Islamic State group has been one of the main reasons the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) have existed in their current form. It is also the primary reason for their relationship with the United States and for receiving US support.
After the former regime fell, relations improved between Damascus and Washington, recently culminating in Syria joining the International Coalition to fight the Islamic State. This development threatened to undercut the SDF in this file, but the Palmyra attack reshaped the equation.
SDF welcomes the accession
The SDF welcomed Syria’s accession to the International Coalition to fight the Islamic State. Its commander, Mazloum Abdi, said the move represents a “pivotal step” toward strengthening joint efforts to eliminate the group and ensuring it does not threaten the region.
At the same time, this welcome was met with questions about whether the counter-IS file could be taken out of the SDF’s hands now that the government has entered the scene, and as it receives broad support from Washington, particularly at the political level.
Political researcher Anas Shawakh said several military and security factors indicate serious and accelerating coordination between Syrian forces and the International Coalition as partners in counterterrorism operations, noting that operations in this context are moving at a rapid pace.
As for whether this card could be pulled from the SDF, Dr. Tariq Hemo, a researcher at the Kurdish Center for Studies, said the forces controlling northeastern Syria supported Damascus joining the coalition.
Hamo told Enab Baladi that the SDF welcomed Syria’s accession because unifying efforts against the Islamic State, which threatens the Syrian state, Syrians, and the political process in Syria, is also an SDF demand and strengthens its role.
He added that there has been talk of establishing a joint operations room between the government and the SDF after the Palmyra attack, noting that the SDF will be part of the Syrian army (if integration takes place) and that it will be the army that fights “terrorism,” regardless of labels.
He believes the SDF can offer its expertise and long experience in confronting the group, and said a new phase of cooperation is likely to emerge.
Palmyra attack, who benefits?
The Palmyra attack reshaped the equation in this file. Washington dealt with it positively in terms of its policy toward Syria, despite the fact that the attacker had joined government forces. However, the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) handling of the incident raised many questions, along with talk that it may have benefited from the attack to portray itself as the ideal force fighting the Islamic State group, and the primary partner relied upon in this regard.
Anas Shawakh said the SDF tried to frame the incident as strengthening its image as a trusted and effective partner for the International Coalition.
At the same time, he argued that the operation, despite the human losses it caused, had a positive effect in favor of Syrian government forces, as it reinforced the concept of partnership between them and the International Coalition.
From another angle, Shawakh said the Palmyra operation undermines the narrative promoted by the SDF, or by other local and international actors, that seeks to portray the Syrian government or Syrian forces as being linked in one way or another, infiltrated, or having ties with the group.
He added that the casualties among Syrian security forces confirm the doctrinal, security, and military hostility toward the Islamic State group.
Researcher Tariq Hemo disagreed, saying the Palmyra operation did not benefit the SDF or the Syrian government. He described it as a “terrorist operation” that harms the political process and serves no one but the Islamic State group.
He said the SDF wants stability, dialogue, and resolving outstanding issues with Damascus through peaceful means, without betting on any external parties.
How did the SDF respond?
Two official statements were issued by the SDF regarding the operation. The first, published on its official channels, expressed condolences for the US soldiers. The second came from its commander, Mazloum Abdi, in a post on X, and included condolences for members of the General Security forces, which the official statement did not mention, as Shawakh noted.
“We express our regret over the injury of a number of General Security members and US soldiers after they came under gunfire in the Syrian desert while carrying out their duties.
The increase in these attacks requires more resolve and joint efforts at the national level in combating terrorism and its cells.
We wish the wounded a speedy recovery.”
Mazloum Abdi Commander of the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) 13 December 2025
Shawakh said the difference between the two condolence statements indicates the presence of two currents within the SDF. The first is represented by Mazloum Abdi, and the second is the current that fully steers the SDF leadership and does not want to open any positive steps toward Syria’s new government.
For that reason, Shawakh argued, the SDF leadership statement was negative toward the participation of Syrian security forces in this operation, while Abdi, through his post, tried to play the role of the one taking a positive initiative with the Syrian government.
Islamic State fighters, 19 December 2025 (al-Naba newspaper)
What is the fate of Islamic State detainee prisons?
The issue of prisons in northeastern Syria holding Islamic State fighters, overseen by the Autonomous Administration, the civilian umbrella of the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), remains under discussion and subject to ongoing debate. The question centers on whether the Syrian government will take over this file after the SDF managed it for years.
Tariq Hemo, a researcher at the Kurdish Center for Studies, said Islamic State detainees have been held for years in prisons run by the Autonomous Administration, with the International Coalition also present and overseeing the process.
He added that the SDF wants to ease this burden by finding an exit and a solution for these fighters, especially non Syrians, such as having their home countries take them back.
Hemo said the file is complex and weighs heavily on the SDF. Any rapprochement with the government in this regard would be “a good thing,” he said, noting that the presence of a US guarantor would help facilitate it, and stressing that the SDF is open to dialogue.
The SDF runs several prisons holding Islamic State fighters in Raqqa and al-Hasakah governorates, with their number estimated in the thousands. In addition, around 50,000 residents, including the group’s fighters and their families, live in displacement camps, most notably al-Hol and al-Roj.
The SDF regularly carries out operations in al-Hol and al-Roj camps against active Islamic State operatives. Meanwhile, the government says some of the individuals who carried out attacks in areas under its control came from the two camps.
Syria joins the “International Coalition”, the state faces off against the Islamic State group Enab Baladi.
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