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Dodgers vs. Brewers: NLCS scouting report, prediction

SERIES SCHEDULE (all times PT)

Game 1: Dodgers at Brewers, Monday, 5:08 p.m., TBS

Game 2: Dodgers at Brewers, Tuesday, 5:08 p.m. TBS

    Game 3: Brewers at Dodgers, Thursday, TBA, TBS

    Game 4: Brewers at Dodgers, Friday, TBA, TBS

    x-Game 5: Brewers at Dodgers, Saturday, TBA, TBS

    x-Game 6: Dodgers at Brewers, Monday (Oct. 20), TBA, TBS

    x-Game 7: Dodgers at Brewers, Tuesday (Oct. 21), TBA, TBS

    x – if necessary

    Season series: The Brewers swept, 6-0

    TALE OF THE TAPE (OFFENSE)

    Brewers (NL rank) … category … Dodgers (NL rank)

    97-65 (1st in NL Central) … Record … 93-69 (1st in NL West)

    806 (2nd) … Runs scored … 825 (1st)

    .258 (T-1st) … Batting avg. … .253 (3rd)

    .332 (1st) … OBP … .327 (3rd)

    .403 (6th) … Slugging pct. … .441 (1st)

    .735 (6th) … OPS … .768 (1st)

    166 (9th) … Home runs … 244 (1st)

    164 (1st) … Stolen bases … 88 (12th)

    TALE OF THE TAPE (PITCHING)

    Brewers (NL rank) … category … Dodgers (NL rank)

    3.58 (1st) … Team ERA … 3.95 (8th)

    3.56 (2nd) … Starters ERA … 3.69 (3rd)

    3.63 (3rd)  … Bullpen ERA … 4.27 (T-10th)

    1.23 (T-5th) … WHIP … 1.26 (7th)

    8.94 (4th) … Ks per 9 inns … 9.40 (1st)

    PROJECTED LINEUPS

    BREWERS: LF Jackson Chourio (.270/.308/.463, 21 HRs, 78 RBIs, 21 SBs), 2B Brice Turang (.288/.359/.435, 18 HRs, 81 RBIs, 24 SBs), C William Contreras (.260/.355/.399, 17 HRs, 76 RBIs), DH Christian Yelich (.264/.343/.452, 29 HRs, 103 RBIs, 16 SBs), 1B Andrew Vaughn (.254/.307/.411, 14 HRs, 65 RBIs with White Sox and Brewers), RF Sal Frelick (.288/.351/.405, 12 HRs, 63 RBIs, 19 SBs), 3B Caleb Durbin (.256/.334/.387, 11 HRs, 53 RBIs, 18 SBs), CF Blake Perkins (.226/.298/.348, 3 HRs, 19 RBIs, 7 SBs), SS Joey Ortiz (.230/.276/.317, 7 HRs, 45 RBIs, 14 SBs)

    DODGERS: DH Shohei Ohtani (.282/.392/.622, 55 HRs, 102 RBIs, 20 SBs, 146 runs scored), SS Mookie Betts (.258/.3226/.406, 20 HRs, 82 RBIs, 95 runs scored), RF Teoscar Hernandez (.247/.284/.454, 25 HRs, 89 RBIs), 1B Freddie Freeman (.295/.367/.502, 24 HRs, 90 RBIs), C Will Smith (.296/.404/.497, 17 HRs, 61 RBIs), 3B Max Muncy (.243/.376/.470, 19 HRs, 87 RBIs), 2B Tommy Edman (.225/.274/.382, 13 HRs, 49 RBIs), CF Andy Pages (.272/.313/.461, 27 HRs, 86 RBIs, 14 SBs), LF Kiké Hernandez (.203/.255/.366, 10 HRs, 35 RBIs)

    This isn’t the “Belli vs. Yeli” matchup of 2018 when these two teams also met in the NLCS. The 2025 versions have much more contrasting offensive styles. The Dodgers led the National League in home runs and slugging percentage. The Brewers led in batting average, on-base percentage and stolen bases. Brewers manager Pat Murphy described his lineup as “a bunch of woodpeckers … pecking away ’til they say the game’s over.” Those woodpeckers managed to score 806 runs during the regular season – second in the NL behind the Dodgers.

    There is a shortage of star power in the Brewers’ lineup with only former Westlake High star Christian Yelich (the NL MVP back in 2018) recognizable outside the Milwaukee-Waukesha-Whitefish Bay metroplex. Second-year man Jackson Chourio is an emerging star, though, and Brice Turang and William Contreras help drive the Brewers’ offense. The midseason addition of Andrew Vaughn helped fill a soft spot.

    The Dodgers, meanwhile, scored just enough to win their NLDS over the Phillies. They hit .199 as a team in the four games. Shohei Ohtani was just 1 for 18 against a steady diet of left-handers. Freddie Freeman was 3 for 15. The Brewers don’t have the same caliber or quantity of left-handed pitching to throw at the Dodgers. They will have a hard time keeping them down. EDGE: DODGERS

    STARTING PITCHERS

    BREWERS: RH Freddy Peralta (17-6, 2.70 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, 10.4 Ks per 9 IP), RH Quinn Priester (13-3, 3.32 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, 7.6 Ks per 9 IP), RH Jacob Misiorowski (5-3, 4.36 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, 11.9 Ks per 9 IP), LH Jose Quintana (11-7, 3.96 ERA 1.29 ERA, 6.1 Ks per 9 IP)

    DODGERS: LH Blake Snell (5-4, 2.35 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, 10.6 Ks per 9 IP), RH Shohei Ohtani (1-1, 2.87 ERA, 47 IP, 1.04 WHIP, 11.9 Ks per 9 IP), RH Yoshinobu Yamamoto (12-8, 2.49 ERA, 0.99 WHIP, 10.4 Ks per 9 IP), RH Tyler Glasnow (4-3, 3.19 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, 10.6 Ks per 9 IP)

    When the Brewers swept the season series from the Dodgers, the games were played in a two-week block in mid-July (three games in Milwaukee before the All-Star break and three in Los Angeles right after the break). The Brewers dominated and their starting pitching was the key. In Milwaukee, Freddy Peralta, Jacob Misiorowski and Jose Quintana allowed two runs in 18 innings. In L.A., Peralta and Quintana weren’t as good but Quinn Priester pitched six scoreless innings in his start. Their five-game NLDS will muddle their pitching somewhat, but the Brewers had the lowest staff ERA in the National League because of the strength of their full staff.

    The Dodgers, meanwhile, have won out quickly enough in their first two series to re-set their pitching after each round and not ask any of their starters to do anything overly taxing. Blake Snell will be on six days of rest before an anticipated Game 1 start. Ohtani will have nine days off before a Game 2 start – and, critically for his offensive contributions, a day off after. Yoshinobu Yamamoto and Tyler Glasnow will have a week of rest for their Game 3 and 4 starts. The Dodgers won’t even have to ask anyone to go on four days of rest until Game 5 (presumably Snell). EDGE: DODGERS

    PROJECTED BULLPEN

    BREWERS: RH Trevor Megill (6-3, 2.49 ERA, 30 saves, 6 blown saves, 1.13 WHIP, 11.5 Ks per 9 IP), RH Grant Anderson (2-6, 3.23 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, 9.6 Ks per 9 IP), LH Robert Gasser (0-2, 3.18 ERA, 1.59 WHIP, 7.9 Ks per 9 IP), LH Jared Koenig (6-1, 2 saves, 2.86 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, 9.3 Ks per 9 IP), RH Nick Mears (5-3, 3.49 ERA, 0.97 WHIP, 7.3 Ks per 9 IP), RH Chad Patrick (3-8, 3.53 ERA, 1.28 WHIP, 9.6 Ks per 9 IP), RH Abner Uribe (3-2, 7 saves, 1.67 ERA, 1.04 WHIP, 10.8 Ks per 9 IP), LH Aaron Ashby (5-2, 2.16 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, 10.3 Ks per 9 IP)

    DODGERS: LH Justin Wrobleski (5-5, 2 saves, 4.32 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, 10.3 Ks per 9 IP), RH Blake Treinen (2-7, 2 saves, 5.40 ERA, 1.84 WHIP, 12.2 Ks per 9 IP), LH Alex Vesia (4-2, 5 saves, 3.02 ERA, 0.99 WHIP, 12.1 Ks per 9 IP),  LH Jack Dreyer (3-2, 4 saves, 2.95 ERA, 1.05 WHIP, 8.7 Ks per 9 IP), RH Roki Sasaki (1-1, 4.46 ERA, 1.43 WHIP, 6.9 Ks per 9 IP in 10 appearances, 8 starts), RH Emmet Sheehan (6-3, 2.82 ERA, 0.97 WHIP, 10.9 Ks per 9 IP in 15 appearances, 12 starts), LH Anthony Banda (5-1, 3.18 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, 8.4 Ks per 9 IP), LH Clayton Kershaw (11-2, 3.36 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, 6.7 Ks per 9 IP)

    The Brewers traded their All-Star closer (Devin Williams) to the New York Yankees last winter – and just replaced him with another (Trevor Megill). The Brewers’ bullpen got even better with Marina High product Megill and Abner Uribe providing a dynamic 1-2 closing punch. Look for Aaron Ashby and Jared Koenig to get the call when Murphy goes for a left-on-left matchup against Ohtani or Freeman.

    season emergence of Roki Sasaki has been a godsend for Roberts, who might still be putting salve on the burn marks from his previous calls to the bullpen. But Sasaki can’t pitch every night, and the more demanding schedule of a seven-game series will require Roberts to close his eyes and pick someone else to trust. EDGE: BREWERS

    BENCH

    BREWERS: OF Brandon Lockridge (.231/.276/.299, 0 HRs, 11 RBIs, 10 SBs with Padres and Brewers), OF Isaac Collins (.263/.368/.411, 9 HRs, 54 RBIs, 16 SBs), 1B Jake Bauers (.235/.353/.399, 7 HRs, 28 RBIs), IF Andruw Monasterio (.270/.319/.437, 4 HRs, 16 RBIs), C Danny Jansen (.215/.321/.399, 14 HRs, 36 RBIs with Rays and Brewers), 1B Rhys Hoskins (.237/.332/.416, 12 HRs, 43 RBIs)

    DODGERS: IF Hyeseong Kim (.280/.314/.385, 3 HRs, 17 RBIs, 13 SBs), C Dalton Rushing (.204/.258/.324, 4 HRs, 24 RBIs), OF Alex Call (.267/.361/.385, 5 HRs, 31 RBIs with Dodgers and Nationals), C Ben Rortvedt (.152/.240/.205, 1 HR, 10 RBIs with Rays and Dodgers), OF Justin Dean (.000/.000/.000, 0 HR, 0 RBIs)

    Roberts indicated the Dodgers will carry an extra pitcher for the best-of-seven NLCS after going with 11 (plus Ohtani) against the Phillies. That means someone from the bench has to go – Dalton Rushing, Hyeseong Kim or Justin Dean. The Brewers, meanwhile, have gotten significant contributions from rookie Isaac Collins and veteran Rhys Hoskins (who lost his first-base job to Andrew Vaughn) at various times this season. EDGE: EVEN

    MANAGERS

    BREWERS: Pat Murphy, third season (2nd with Brewers), 232-188 (.552), third postseason 4-4, .500

    DODGERS: Dave Roberts, 10th season, 944-576, .621, 10th postseason 58-44, .569 (four pennants, two World Series titles)

    Roberts and Murphy have some history. When the Padres fired Bud Black as their manager in June 2015, Roberts (Black’s bench coach) took over – for one game. Murphy was managing the Padres’ Triple-A affiliate and was promoted to take over as interim manager a day later. That was the first of two times the Padres skipped over Roberts, who got the Dodgers’ managerial job following the 2015 season. Murphy didn’t get the job in San Diego either. He moved on to Milwaukee, where he spent seven seasons as Craig Counsell’s bench coach before stepping in when Counsell left for the Cubs. Both have their work cut out for them this series. Murphy has to continue getting the most out of a less-talented roster. And Roberts has to continue getting the most out of his uber-talented roster. EDGE: EVEN

    SERIES PREDICTION

    The Brewers had the best record in baseball this season – no, really, they did. But their 97-win regular season has not come with the usual predictions of postseason success or favored status among the field. “I’m grateful for the guys we’ve had in the room. They’ve been doubted every year. Everyone,” Murphy said in the afterglow of Saturday night’s NLDS-clinching victory over the Chicago Cubs. “There’s no one predicting the Brewers playing the Dodgers in the (NLCS).” Congratulations to Murphy for playing the “No-One-Picked-Us” card before the series even begins. The Brewers are a fundamentally sound, well-rounded team that dominated the Dodgers in July. This is October, though. That underperforming July squad has been replaced by an experienced, playoff-tested team playing like we all thought they could. DODGERS IN SIX

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