FPL Challenge GW7 is here and clean sheets are worth double points. With that in mind, we look at the Premier League‘s underlying data to reveal the best goalkeepers and defenders to target this weekend, as well as revealing our full team.
It’s the final FPL Challenge before the October international break, and we head into Gameweek 7 off the back of a mixed bag in GW6. Robin Roefs and Erling Haaland delivered us big returns, but the rest of the squad didn’t quite follow suit.
This week’s rule tweak – inspired by England goalkeeping icon Mary Earps – awards double points for clean sheets. That applies to goalkeepers, defenders and midfielders, but with midfielders only getting a single extra point for a shutout (compared to four for goalkeepers and defenders), it makes sense to stack our squads with those positions to maximise the potential for double points.
Before we reveal our picks, here’s a quick look at the underlying expected goals (xG) numbers. First, here are the defences performing best so far this season. These are the teams we want to be looking at for GW7:
And here are the sides creating the lowest-quality chances, the ones worth targeting for clean sheets.
Goalkeeper
Emiliano Martínez: Aston Villa vs Nottingham Forest (H)
We’re going with Emiliano Martínez between the sticks as Aston Villa host Burnley. As noted above, the Clarets are averaging the lowest xG per game of any Premier League side, and another home game feels like the perfect opportunity for Villa to build on the momentum from their 3-1 win over Fulham in GW6.
David Raya for Arsenal at home to West Ham is also a very strong option, and we wouldn’t argue with anyone picking him instead. Newcastle United’s Nick Pope playing at home to Nottingham Forest is tempting, too. But we’ve already got defenders selected from both of those clubs, and can’t select more than one player from the same team.
Defenders
Riccardo Calafiori: Arsenal vs West Ham (H)
We’re sticking with Arsenal’s Riccardo Calafiori this week. He didn’t quite deliver for us in GW6, but his numbers remain very promising.
Arsenal boast the league’s best defensive record, and back at home in GW7 they look set to deliver another clean sheet for us. In their home games so far – against Leeds, Nottingham Forest and Manchester City – they’ve conceded just once and faced only 13 shots in total, the fewest any side has given up at home in the league to date.
Calafiori offers attacking upside as well. Despite playing just 70 minutes against Newcastle, he added another two shots to his tally, taking him to 12 for the season – the most of any defender in the league.
Marcos Senesi: Bournemouth vs Fulham (H)
Marcos Senesi has been a fantasy revelation at the heart of Bournemouth’s defence this season. He’s the only player to have collected the maximum two defensive contribution points in all six games this season, and with three clean sheets and two assists to boot, he is the highest-scoring defender in the game.
Andoni Iraola’s side kick off GW7 at home to Fulham on Friday, where they’ve been formidable. The Cherries have conceded just 0.41 xG per game at the Vitality Stadium, tied with Arsenal for the league’s best mark.
Kieran Trippier: Newcastle vs Nottingham Forest (H)
Tino Livramento looked to have suffered a serious knee injury against Arsenal. With the young full-back sidelined, Kieran Trippier should have a clear run in the starting XI. Newcastle rank second only to Arsenal in the underlying defensive metrics, and Nottingham Forest are still winless under Ange Postecoglou, having just failed to score in defeat at home to Sunderland.
Trippier retains a share of corner duties as well, and this has helped him surprisingly lead all Newcastle players for chances created per 90 (2.1).
Forest have conceded 30 shots from set-pieces this season, with only West Ham (34) allowing more, so there’s potential for attacking returns here too.
Midfielder
Bruno Fernandes: Manchester United vs Sunderland (H)
Bruno Fernandes burned plenty of managers last week with a missed penalty against Brentford, but until we get confirmation that he’ll be removed from penalty-taking duties, we have to assume he’s still the go-to man. He leads Manchester United players for chances created (16) and open-play chances (12), ranking behind only Jack Grealish in both those metrics among all players across the league.
Our prediction model has Fernandes forecasted at 0.26 assists this weekend – the fourth-highest of any player – and he’s thrived against newly-promoted sides historically, with five goals and six assists in his last nine appearances against them.
Antoine Semenyo is another strong option and was hard to leave out. He’s scored eight of Bournemouth’s last 15 goals and is currently the highest-scoring midfielder in the game.
Forward
Erling Haaland: Manchester City vs Brentford (A)
It’s tough to look anywhere else up front. Erling Haaland remains the focal point of Manchester City’s attack and continues to produce elite numbers, scoring two more in the midweek draw at Monaco in the Champions League.
Viktor Gyökeres has a promising fixture at home to West Ham, but with our Arsenal slot already taken, we’re sticking with the big Norwegian up top.
Opta Analyst’s Team Reveal: Gameweek 7 FPL Challenge Picks
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FPL Challenge GW7 Picks: Best Goalkeepers and Defenders to Target for Clean Sheets Opta Analyst.
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