2025 World Championships Day 6: Men’s 4×200 Free Relay Speculation ...Middle East

By Sam Blacker on SwimSwam

2025 World Championships

We look to have a fascinating race coming up in the men’s 4×200 free relay tonight, with the top four expected teams looking like being a lot closer than we thought heading into the meet. Great Britain will likely break up their golden quartet and leave out Tom Dean, while the pre-meet favorite USA has more questions than anyone over tonight’s lineup. The decision over who makes the cut for several teams could influence this race decisively.

Great Britain- 7:03.98

Jack McMillan emphatically answered the main question around tonight’s lineup, shattering his best time with a 1:45.28 leadoff this morning. Coupled with Tom Dean anchoring in 1:46.35, he is the clear choice to join James Guy, Matt Richards and Duncan Scott tonight. 

The questions now are regarding their order. Do you lead off with James Guy or Matt Richards, in the knowledge that Luke Hobson will try to break them in the first 150? Can you afford to put Duncan Scott anywhere other than on anchor, even though his 1:43-split speed may be best used on the second leg to try to eliminate the gap created by Hobson? Is McMillan best left to leadoff or can he be just as effective on a flying start?

Duncan Scott was rested this morning after his 200 IM exertions over the last couple of days, and did add nearly a second to his semi-final time there as he finished 4th in the final in 1:56.42. Most of that (0.76 seconds) came on fly, where it looked like something went wrong on his start as he surfaced nearly a body length down on the swimmers either side of him. He is in better form than that time suggests, and has already been 1:45.08 this season

This team may be slight favourites after this morning. Realistically they have four swimmers here with floors of 1:45.5s, and they are  likely to be closer to, if not below, 1:45-flat.  Breaking seven minutes for the third summer in a row should be well within reach.

Australia – 7:04.32

Australia looked good this morning, but probably has the most difficult decision of any of the finalists. Flynn Southam will come in tonight, but it isn’t yet clear who for. Sam Short, the second-place finisher from Trials, is also an option but scratched the 800 free final with gastrointestinal issues, and would be a big risk to put straight in tonight.

Max Giuliani should definitely join Southam after anchoring in 1:45.49 this morning, but going off just the heats times it’s between Ed Somerville and Kai Taylor to miss out. Australia may be loath to take off either, after Somerville was 1:44.93 at Trials and given Taylor’s history on this relay (1:44.56 split two years ago) and his phenomenal split in the 4×100 free.

Charlie Hawke had the second best leg this morning in 1:45.83, under his best of 1:46.10, but may be the one sacrificed if Australia go for the highest ceiling possible.

Somerville had some pretty wacky splitting on the leadoff, going 23.72/25.86/27.30/29.98, but that final 50 was him fading hard rather than shutting it down. He may be the most in danger, having missed the semis individually and with only one swim ever under the 1:46 barrier, with Australia’s solid record in the event recently down to their consistency rather than any game-changing splits.

Korea – 7:04.68

Korea went with their strongest lineup in prelims, and all four swimmers will return tonight. Hwang Sunwoo has been good but not great so far, clocking 47.94/1:44.74 in the 100/200 free, but looked controlled through his 1:46.11 leg after flashing some early speed (50.72) through the first 100.

Kim Woomin was right on his best in the 400 free and can be pencilled in for a 1:45-point at least tonight after splitting 1:46.09, and Lee Hojoon looked in better shape than he did individually, splitting 1:46.76 with a 26.96 final 50. He will be the wildcard tonight – they may need him to step up and be 1:45-low or better after looking a bit off so far, nearly two seconds slower than his best in the individual 200.

Kim Youngbeom was big news on the leadoff. He was 1:45.72, a best by 0.41 seconds and now truly is the final piece of this relay. If he can replicate and the next three legs hit their best with sub-1:45 splits, they’ll be incredibly dangerous. This was their 4th-fastest swim ever and 2.39 seconds faster than the Paris final – this team means business.

Italy – 7:05.17

With the squad that Italy brought with them, they really only had one lineup decision – whether to put Thomas Ceccon on as a wildcard option. 

Although a medal on this relay is not out of the question, he will have the 100 fly semis tonight and did not look in top aerobic form in the 200 back yesterday.

None of the four legs this morning did anything to justify leaving them off tonight, and Carlos D’Ambrosio swam yet another 1:45-point on the leadoff, his third of the meet, as he went 1:45.89.

Filippo Megli, Marco de Tullio and Stefano di Cola were all 1:46-point and should all have some time to drop. Megli almost exactly matched his individual swim from the semi-finals, so  expect to see him at least in the 1:45s.

Italy should go with the same quartet they swam this morning, and quite probably in the same order. There were questions over this team after missing the final in Paris last year, especially after their fastest swimmer last season, Alessandro Ragaini, missed the squad, but they will be in the mix tonight.

USA – 7:06.09

The U.S. may not be the favourites any more, and have a lot of lineup questions right now. Luke Hobson is a lock and should lead off, but outside of that almost anything is on the table.

Henry McFadden should be in after having the fastest split this morning in 1:45.51, but Gabe Jett faded hard this morning without particularly looking as though he was taking it easy, splitting 1:47.90 on the anchor and nearly being caught by both China and Israel. He was 1:45.60 from a flat start in the semi-finals, nine-tenths of a second slower than his best, so is likely to be on the finals team anyway, but it may be a close decision.

Chris Giuliano led off this morning in 1:46.43 and is probably shading Rex Maurer for a spot if the decision comes down to the two of them, but both were off what they threw down at Nationals this morning. 

Carson Foster is the real wildcard though. He looked solid in the 200 fly, albeit slower than at trials, but looked well off the boil in the 200 IM and wound up scratching the final. USA Swimming did not announce why, and only announced that scratch 15 minutes before the 200 IM final was swum. If he’s been rested for this he’ll be in, but putting the 5th-place finisher from Nationals straight into finals is a big decision at the best of times. 

Hobson-Foster-McFadden-Jett may be how things shake out, but either or both of Giuliano or Maurer could slot in on legs two and four there. It may depend on whether the coaches are choosing to go for the highest ceiling possible and the gold, or hedge their bets with the highest floor and guarantee a medal. 1st through 4th could be a lot closer than expected tonight, and a single bad split may have a big effect.

China – 7:06.15

China has a single decision to make, but a consequential one. Pan Zhanle, their fastest 200 freestyler this year with a season best of 1:45.45, has not been too hot so far in Singapore, but is the only swimmer who would come in.

For whom is the question? Pan was 1:47.46 in the 200 on Day 2, and they had a full house of 1:46s this morning. Fei Liwei or Wang Shun are the most likely swimmers to go, but it doesn’t look like a surefire upgrade.

Expect Pan to be on, as he is their best chance to contend, but whichever one of these four is left off in that case may be justified in thinking they shouldn’t have been.

Israel – 7:06.29

Israel set their National record in the heats last summer in 7:08.43 as they snuck into the final in joint-8th with Germany, but beat them outright this year as they were 7:06.29 for 7th. All four swimmers could return, with Gal Cohen Groumi the only option to come in after he split 1:45.57 in Paris, but he will have the 100 fly semis tonight and hasn’t broken 1:47 this season. 

Yoav Romano would be the man to go in that case after he split 1:46.92, and there’s nothing to be lost by putting Groumi on and going for broke this afternoon. A 7:04 is on the cards if they can all back up their swims. Expect that one change but it wouldn’t be a shock for them to run it back instead.

France – 7:06.88

France has the option of using Leon Marchand here. Whether they do or not will have major repercussions, with his freestyle looking stronger on the 200 IM than it did in 2023, where he anchored this relay in 1:44.89.

The relay looked solid this morning, especially Yann le Goff’s 1:45.78 anchor leg, but it’s tough to see where they would pick up much time outside of adding Marchand. They don’t have anyone else who can come into this team, and even with him, their ceiling is probably mid-pack in the final rather than fighting for a medal. 

Expect the foursome from this morning to return, but Marchand for Corentin Pouillart is the play if not.

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