With only a couple of days before Greeley’s special election, voters are poised to decide whether to keep land-use rules for two major projects on the western edge of the city.
Though Greeley Demands Better and Greeley Forward, the two issue committees supporting and opposing the ballot item, pull focus to Cascadia and Catalyst as a whole, the ballot item only focuses on the projects’ zoning.
Cascadia is a private residential and commercial development that’s set to surround the Catalyst entertainment district, which is set to include a hockey arena, a luxury hotel and a water park — all of which would be owned by the city.
A “yes” vote would repeal the zoning , which could temporarily delay the projects, while a “no” vote would retain the zoning and allow the projects to continue as planned.
Each option comes with its own set of consequences and potential hurdles for the city to overcome. Acting City Manager Brian McBroom said the city is working on an updated comprehensive financial picture that will be presented on March 3 to help guide the city through whatever happens after the election.
Though this election could change the financial outlook of the projects, McBroom said their future will ultimately be determined by the city council.
What happens if 1A passes?
The passage of 1A would revert zoning for the approximately 834-acre property north of U.S. 34 and east of West County Road 17, where the Catalyst and Cascadia projects are set to be developed. Both Catalyst and Cascadia would revert to their previous holding agriculture zoning designation, and some project work could continue, but construction would not.
If 1A passes, city staff plan to immediately begin presenting alternative zoning designations for the property. While the ideal zoning is already in place, McBroom said, there are alternative zoning options that would allow construction to begin and keep the project timeline largely intact.
“If the election is successful, we would have to get back in front of council, walk through those options with them and see what they want to do,” he said. “We would essentially follow council’s direction in that regard. It could be either that we do nothing or explore some kind of replacement zoning on our 100 acres (for Catalyst).”
The project’s zoning is an important piece of the city’s debt repayment plans, which could be adjusted on March 3. In May of last year, the city council approved the issuance of $115 million in certificates of participation, or COPs, “mortgaging” 46 city-owned buildings to The Zions Bancorporation, National Association. The city plans to pay off the COPs through a $832 million debt issuance for nonprofit bond financing.
Louisiana-based nonprofit Provident Resources Group is issuing the $832 million debt for the project to both fund construction and pay back the COPs. However, that debt is planned to be paid off with revenue generated by the Catalyst and Cascadia developments, and McBroom is doubtful that Provident will issue the debt if construction cannot proceed, which would likely delay repayment of the COPs and require additional interest payments the city isn’t prepared to make.
“I suspect Provident will likely not proceed until we get replacement zoning in place. So that would delay the timing of bond issuance,” McBroom said. “It’s best to get that zoning in place, I think, before the project continues to move forward.”
The city is scheduled to make a payment toward the interest-only portion of the COPs on March 1, totaling nearly $3.3 million, according to Greeley Communications Director Winna Ironkwe. Two additional interest-only payments are scheduled for Sept. 1, and then Jan. 1, 2027. The first interest and principal payment is set for Sept. 1, 2027, which the city would have to budget for if it does not acquire nonprofit bond financing.
No matter the financial situation, the way the COPs were issued does not put the 46 buildings “mortgaged” at risk of being lost if the city has difficulties paying Zions back, city officials said. If 1A passes, the city will need to find a repayment source for the COPs, and the Catalyst project would be delayed until the council approves a different zoning, waits a year to reapply for the current zoning or decides to cancel the project altogether.
However, with a majority of the council strongly in favor of the project, officials have signaled they are unlikely to cancel the project even if 1A passes.
What happens if 1A fails?
If the ballot measure fails, the zoning will remain in place, allowing the projects to continue as planned. However, the city would still have the option to take an off-ramp before it enters a moral obligation with Provident Resources Group without legal repercussions, according to McBroom.
In the event of the project’s continuation, the standard development risks would apply, namely that revenue could under-deliver and make debt repayment difficult. Under the moral obligation agreement, the city would be asked to step in with additional funding to support the debt repayment. However, as the debt would be taken out by Provident, the city could decide not to lend its aid, though doing so would have a significant negative impact on the city’s credit.
Greeley Demands Better, which is endorsing a “yes” vote, often cites this as the project’s largest risk and argues that the city’s own third-party study found that the Catalyst financing plan is not feasible. The project’s debt service, estimated at $41.5 million annually, cannot be covered by the city’s proposed revenue sources in the first nine to sixteen years, according to the study.
City staff and the feasibility study clarify that the estimated debt gap does not include additional revenues from surrounding commercial and residential activity, such as sales, property and lodging taxes, which could offset the gap in the early years. McBroom also reassures that there are several “pots” of revenue that will be used to repay the project’s debt, such as public improvement fees and an annual $12 million economic development payment.
Proponents of the Catalyst project, such as Greeley Forward, say the larger potential revenue picture far outweighs early costs. Latest project revenue estimates indicate Catalyst could generate $11 million in additional sales tax revenue and $2.9 billion in economic activity over 10 years, creating 1,385 jobs per year.
McBroom, however, casts some doubt on those estimates, noting that the city’s current financial forecasts are based on the four independent studies it commissioned over the summer. The city did not request that these third-party consultants make conservative or aggressive estimates, leaving room for the project to perform better or worse than currently predicted.
“The primary information we’re using in the financial model on the revenue side are the market studies,” McBroom said. “What we asked the companies that did the market studies to do is give us the best information they have, rather than asking them to use aggressive estimates or conservative estimates.”
No matter how the debt repayment shakes out, though, McBroom reiterated the city will not raise taxes, as it could not do so without a vote. Though the city could source debt repayment from other city funds, current safety nets would be used first, such as potentially issuing 20-year certificates of participation on city buildings again, according to the Catalyst Speak Up Greeley page.
How to vote
Ballots went out earlier this month, and voters may return their ballot by dropping it off at one of four secure, 24-hour drop box locations:
Aims Community College Cornerstone Building, 5401 W. 20th St. Greeley City Hall, 1000 10th St. University of Northern Colorado University Center, 2101 10th Ave. Weld County Election Office, 1250 H St.Ballots must be received by the city clerk by 7 p.m. Tuesday to be counted. Voters who have not received a ballot or need a replacement may obtain a ballot at Greeley City Hall. For more information, go to bit.ly/SpecialElection26.
Follow the Greeley Tribune’s ongoing coverage of the Cascadia development and stay up to date on all project milestones at greeleytribune.com/cascadia.
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