Which NFL Playmakers Have the Best Chance to Win the Receiving Triple Crown in 2025? ...Middle East

Based on recent history, a third triple-crown season might be just around the corner in the NFL. But who has the best chance to accomplish it? To find out, we dug into the numbers.

It’s one of the most coveted titles among offensive players. 

No, it’s not as exciting as the NFL MVP, but winning the receiving triple crown is a clear indication of dominance, as the winner leads the league in catches, receiving yards and touchdowns.

After a 16-year drought, there have been two triple crown winners in the past four seasons: Cooper Kupp for the Los Angeles Rams in 2021 and Ja’Marr Chase for the Cincinnati Bengals in 2024. The NFL is much more of a passing league than ever, and we may see more of these types of seasons in the future.

Therefore, a third triple-crown season might be just around the corner. But who has the best chance to accomplish it? To find out, we dug into the numbers.

A 16-year sample size is not large enough to make a definitive projection for 2025. So we’ll expand our data sample to all receivers who finished in the top five in receptions, yards and touchdowns in a single season from 2018 to 2024.

There are 18 such receivers during those seven years, including the two recent winners and a few repeat names like Amon-Ra St. Brown, Davante Adams, Stefon Diggs, Tyreek Hill and Michael Thomas.

Based on these players’ stats, we can calculate an average baseline of metrics that should be able to help predict what a receiver might need to win the triple crown. 

Receivers can only control so much. Quarterback performance and offensive design also play massive roles in triple crown success. 

Just look at Chase’s 2024 campaign: QB Joe Burrow ranked No. 1 in well-thrown rate (89.3%) and top-six in catchable pass rate (80.3%) – how often a pass is deemed catchable by the receiver. The Bengals offense finished top-four in offensive success and pass success rates while leading the league in overall pass rate (67.9%).

A receiver can be great but can’t flourish if the offense doesn’t pass the ball often or isn’t good at passing, which means the quarterback also needs to be great. 

This will factor into our predictions almost as much as a receiver’s abilities. So let’s look into the baseline stats from the quarterback and offensive system, which a receiver can’t control as much.

Of course, there are exceptions. In 2021, Cooper Kupp posted historic usage numbers (713 routes, 230 targets, 32.3% share), which helped overcome below-average metrics from quarterback Matthew Stafford and coach Sean McVay’s offense. Volume can sometimes make up for mediocre efficiency.

Now that we’ve established the thresholds, here’s how 2024’s top receivers stack up heading into 2025.

Strong Candidates

Terry McLaurin, Washington Commanders

McLaurin is one of the few receivers who checks all three triple-crown boxes: elite separation metrics, a promising young quarterback and a capable offensive system.

He ran the seventh-most routes in 2024 with 617 (tied with Garrett Wilson) and garnered 140 targets, which tied for 14th. While his volume wasn’t elite, McLaurin made up for it with great separation numbers: 67.1% burn rate, 13.09 burn yards per target and 75.7% open rate. 

McLaurin’s quarterback, Jayden Daniels, ranked No. 1 in open-target rate (how often the targeted receiver is open) as a rookie (84.5%) and ranked in the top 10 in catchable-thrown ball rate (81.1%) among 37 quarterbacks with at least 250 passing attempts. However, his well-thrown percentage of 77.8 ranked 35th. 

If Daniels can take another step forward in Year 2, it would only help McLaurin’s chances.

The Commanders offense didn’t reach the pass-heavy threshold (58%), but some of that can be attributed to offensive coordinator Kliff Kingsbury trying to slowly bring his rookie quarterback into the fold. Washington still finished with a 43.6% offensive success rate and a 45.8% pass success rate – both of which meet the mark.

Brian Thomas Jr., Jacksonville Jaguars

Thomas flashed elite upside as a rookie, and everyone’s eyes will be on him this year because of the new-look Jaguars offense. He excelled with 13.4 burn yards per target and a 75.9 open percentage, even with subpar quarterback play.

Thomas also had the fourth-highest RAC% (percentage of receiving yards that come after the catch) of any player with an average depth of target of 10 or more yards and only one player was higher in both average depth of target and RAC% (Jameson Williams of the Detroit Lions). That means that Thomas is elite in RAC% considering the types of targets he typically gets.

New head coach Liam Coen’s 2024 Tampa Bay offense ranked in the top three in both offensive and pass success rate, which bodes well for Thomas and QB Trevor Lawrence if he can bring that to Jacksonville.

While the Jaguars added Travis Hunter in the draft, they moved on Gabe Davis and Evan Engram, players who took targets away from Thomas. With Hunter learning as a rookie, Thomas should be heavily featured and easily increase his production in 2025. 

Potential Contenders

Some notable names were left off the above list, including Amon-Ra St. Brown and Justin Jefferson. These receivers nearly match the triple crown blueprint but have one key variable working against them.

Justin Jefferson, Minnesota Vikings

For Jefferson, it’s his quarterback. While Kevin O’Connell can produce quality receiver play (Jefferson led the 2022 season in receptions and receiving yards), the offensive success rates didn’t reach any of the thresholds. Additionally, quarterback J.J. McCarthy is a complete unknown given he hasn’t played an NFL snap.

Amon-Ra St. Brown, Detroit Lions

St. Brown clears two of three parameters (quarterback play and receiver metrics) rather easily and ranked in the top five in receptions, yards and touchdowns in each of the past two seasons. The problem here is his offensive system. Normally, it would also clear the bar. But we simply don’t know how new offensive coordinator John Morton will call plays in 2025.

CeeDee Lamb, Dallas Cowboys

Lamb’s offensive and quarterback numbers just miss the mark, but the team passes at a high enough rate to put him close to the top group. Lamb has the targets and routes but also doesn’t cross the receiver metric thresholds like some of the other names listed. Finally, his 30.5% target share in 2024 will likely be lessened by the addition of George Pickens.

Garrett Wilson, New York Jets

Wilson’s numbers didn’t pop in 2024, but he should be a featured receiver in Tanner Engstrand’s offense. He and new quarterback Justin Fields also played college ball together, which can’t hurt. Fields even had good enough well-thrown and catchable-thrown ball rates (83.4 % and 82.1%, respectively) during his six weeks as a starter in 2024.

Dark-Horse Contenders

There are a few players who could see a major leap and become true threats this year, either because of quarterback changes, offensive adjustments or just yearly progression.

Nico Collins, Houston Texans

Collins checks nearly every important receiver metric except volume, but that can be attributed to his 2024 injury as well as the presence of Stefon Diggs and Tank Dell. Collins is primed for a bigger role in 2025 with Diggs gone and Dell possibly missing the season with an injury, albeit with some uncertainties.

For one, quarterback C.J. Stroud wasn’t an effective passer in 2024. His 78.6% well-thrown rate and 75.6% catchable-ball rate ranked far too low to support a triple crown receiver. The Texans, though, hired a new offensive coordinator in ex-Rams assistant Nick Caley, which could be a huge boon for Stroud and Collins.

Receivers have thrived in McVay-style offenses. Kupp played under McVay with the Rams, while Chase played for Zac Taylor, who came from McVay’s staff. If Caley lives up to his potential, Collins is a good bet to see a huge boost in production across the board.

Malik Nabers, New York Giants

Nabers was an absolute dynamo as a rookie in 2024. His 170 targets rivaled Chase and his 32.3% target share trailed only Puka Nacua. However, New York’s offense and quarterback situation could stymie his ability to lead the league in 2025.

Russell Wilson is the projected Week 1 starter, and his 2024 numbers weren’t awful when it came to well-thrown rate and catchable-ball rate (84.0% and 78.6%, respectively). But he is now in a new offense, one that finished with a 34.8% offensive success rate and a 36.0% pass success rate. Those ranked 31st and 28th in 2024, respectively. 

That won’t cut it for a triple crown contender unless the Giants do a complete turnaround. The threat of Jameis Winston or Jaxson Dart is another factor to consider here, but it’s unclear if that would hurt or help Nabers.

Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Seattle Seahawks

Smith-Njigba has the necessary receiver metrics with a 75.9% open rate and a .930 catch rating (a rating from 0-1 that indicates how well a receiver successfully catches throws that are considered catchable). Though his burn rate and target shares were low last season, those could change in 2025 with a new offensive system under Klint Kubiak, a new quarterback in Sam Darnold, and no Tyler Lockett and DK Metcalf to steal looks.

Kubiak’s system and Darnold’s ability are the biggest question marks. 

Brock Bowers, Las Vegas Raiders

Yes, a tight end has a shot. Bowers finished third in receptions and eighth in yards as a rookie in 2024 with Gardner Minshew, Aidan O’Connell and Desmond Ridder as his quarterbacks and Luke Getsy and Scott Turner calling plays.

Now, Bowers will have Geno Smith under center and an offense led by Chip Kelly with Pete Carroll as his head coach. Smith had great numbers in Seattle a year ago (86.8% well-thrown rate and 81.4% catchable-ball rate), and Carroll’s offenses passed 62.3% of the time on average from 2018 to 2023 when he was the head coach of the Seahawks. 

Bowers’ burn rates aren’t great (55.6% and 8.69 burn yards per target), but he had a 74.5% open rate and a .941 catch rating. Without a clear receiver on the offense, Bowers should continue to see a ton of targets and potentially push for a triple crown if he remains healthy. 

Honorable Omissions 

We’d like to mention a few receivers who didn’t make the cut, either because of their offensive system, quarterback play or uncertainty around their development potential. 

Puka Nacua and Davante Adams are the biggest names, as they have dominated statistically in the past, but the Rams also don’t pass enough relative to other offenses to give either a good shot at the crown.

Others like Drake London, Zay Flowers and Ladd McConkey have good individual metrics as well but also don’t play in offenses that pass enough to build massive receiving numbers.  

Finally, there’s Marvin Harrison Jr. He could be a dark horse contender because Kyler Murray and the Arizona Cardinals clear the thresholds that could foster a triple crown receiver. However, Harrison’s numbers weren’t promising enough last season to forecast a big enough rise in 2025.

Triple crown seasons are rare, but the blueprint is clear: high usage, elite efficiency, and a quarterback and system that support top-end passing volume. Players like McLaurin and Thomas Jr. are already close – and with a little help from their teams, could be next in line for a historic season.

As we get closer to the 2025 season, the door is wide open for a new name to claim the crown if Chase takes a step back. 

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Which NFL Playmakers Have the Best Chance to Win the Receiving Triple Crown in 2025? Opta Analyst.

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