Here is a chart from Greg Daco at Panthenon and I think it's telling:
If you go back to the start of Trump's term, tariff rates were near zero on Chinese imports. He ratcheted those up to 20% in increments that were met by Chinese escalation and deal-making.
This time, it's gone sideways with tariffs going parabolic, despite Trump floating ideas about deals.
To me, this reflective of every warning about tariffs from 2016 and how they could lead to an uncontrollable escalation.In fact, it's reminiscent of every war-type escalation where initial casualties or threats are ignored until things explode.
At the moment, the White House appears to be trying to reel it in so I think there is still some hope here but I also get the sense that China doesn't want to beg to just get a 54% tariff rate.
Even if we get a roll-back on the 50%, overall US tariff rates are still way too high as it looks like broad 'reciprocal but not really reciprocal' tariffs are set to hit the rest of the world.
If nothing is walked back, the average US tariff rate would be 32.6%, according to CorPay.
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