The setting for Kemi Badenoch’s speech in which she attacked net zero targets, describing them as “impossible”, was the offices of a swanky business advisory firm in London’s King’s Cross. Here was a clear signal that the Leader of the Opposition’s vibe is shifting from spiky doyenne of right-leaning think-tanks to a pragmatic figure, challenging Labour’s view of the route to British prosperity.
An hour of all-out war followed on the “green tech” revolution and a trashing of the UK’s “world-leading” (Ed Miliband) role at all those environmental summits.
This was Kemi on a kill mission and the target was the UK’s pledge to achieve net zero carbon emissions by 2050.
It’s certainly a theme of the moment: the new Trump administration’s first move was to withdraw from the Paris agreement to limit global temperature increases to 1.5°C. Germany’s incoming leader, Friedrich Merz, is equivocating about his approach to limiting emissions by pursuing “intelligent solutions, not ideological ones”.
On Tuesday, it was Britain’s turn for a “policy reset”, as Badenoch put it. But real policy remains in the hands of the Labour Government and Ed Miliband, the intense Energy and Climate Minister, who fits in Badenoch’s “zealots” category. He took a not-so-bad environmental idea of limiting climate harm – and then messed up by having a target to deliver on it.
So Badenoch’s attack was cannily two-pronged: that the pursuit of net zero policy was doing damage to the economy and would “bankrupt” the UK, but also that it wasn’t deliverable anyway – a fool’s errand when consumers really want cheaper energy.
An obvious wrinkle was that green policy has long roots in the Tories’ recent past, foregrounded by David Cameron, Boris Johnson and Theresa May, all of whom viewed UN-agreed climate targets as a way to ensure the party retained appeal to voters fretful about the impacts of climate change – and as a passport to UK importance at global gatherings.
This meant Badenoch skipping lightly around the issue of why this particular sacred cow was now being led to slaughter, with a brusque explanation that she had been bound by “collective responsibility” when she gave lukewarm support to the 2050 target in previous years.
In truth, anyone familiar with Badenoch knows that she has been a sceptic for some time. The difference is that she has now decided that it is an issue on which she can move beyond the serried ranks of grey-haired Tory chaps applauding the speech, and take the fight to Labour on a topic Keir Starmer has his own reasons for wanting to keep at the edge of Labour priorities.
The Prime Minister’s own style of argument is more focussed on Reform-tempted voters than planet-savers. Badenoch’s assault prods him to choose between keeping net zero largely out of the limelight or doubling down on the public argument when he would rather be honing his appeal on other matters.
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Blind faith that Labour will do the right thing is unforgivably naive
Read MoreOne way or another, this will be a pivotal moment in the evolution in the rocky Badenoch journey through opposition. It plays to one of her strengths, which is to provide blasts of ideas outside the established centre ground of politics – ideas which move towards Reform ideology but also challenge Starmerism.
Her calculation is that voters, even if they tend to declare themselves very motivated by addressing climate change, are happy with procrastination when the sacrifices run too close to their own lives or well-being. And there is a sore spot to poke at here: Miliband’s desire to have net zero at the heart of the Government’s agenda has come under challenge, given the deluge of other urgent priorities, from healthcare to defence.
In the big picture it can always be argued that pretty much every bad thing or stress in the choppy international system is made worse by a failure to curb man-made climate change. That will remain as true as it was yesterday, last year or a decade ago. But the risks are less obvious in the daily lives of people in the northern hemisphere than many other adversities they face.
As a result, Labour has backed into a dicier argument that net zero is a wholehearted benefit to the economy. But the gains are far off and the persistent question of when and if consumer and energy bills will fall is worrying Labour strategists.
So in essence, the Tories foresee a growing backlash against the idea – a bet on the futures market of scepticism about net zero, a lot of it real and a good chunk driven by those who are ideological zealots on the right against the whole idea.
Green energy is slow to become cheap, because it needs transitional support and consistent investment. The geopolitical clash of the gods and mortals matters too: oil and gas prices could stabilise if a Ukraine deal sticks and the Middle East settles. It also might not – and governments are bad at placing this bet well.
Badenoch can lean on (non-ideological) bodies like the Royal United Services Institute who warn that in a time of security threats, the rush to net zero ramps up dependency on lithium-ion supply chains and, ultimately, reliance on China for support to deliver infrastructure and materials for a renewables shift. Yet for many years Conservatives hostile to green measures made the argument that, as China was not serious about addressing climate harms, so the West should not feel obliged to do so either. Having it both ways feels cynical.
Notably, Badenoch, while attacking the Government’s target, said that she did believe in combating climate change but gave no target or clear aim of her own, on the grounds that she disapproved of the methodology behind Labour’s. This is definitely “opposition-itis”: asked how seriously she took the environment and her own behavioural shifts, she cited not buying her children as many clothes as they might like.
“Stay mean, go green” might be a small part of the puzzle, but it doesn’t help figure out the bigger one. If the politics of opposing net zero are an attractive weapon to bash Labour, what do today’s Conservatives really want when it comes to addressing the heated topic of climate change? On that, the outlook is much rhetorical heat – and fog.
Anne McElvoy is host of the Power Play podcast for Politico
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