This week a huge, state-of-the art, nuclear-capable Russian missile emerged from the freezing-cold Sea of Okhotsk, north of Japan, blazing into the dark sky.
Russia’s Ministry of Defence made no secret of the launch, on Wednesday uploading to social media a video complete with stirring music and a close-up of a finger pressing the “launch” button.
The MOD boasted that “the missile’s warheads successfully reached the designated area at the estimated time”: the Chizha test range at Cape Kanin on the eastern coast of the Kanin Peninsula in northern Russia, a few hundred miles from Norway and Finland. It did not say when the test occurred.
The target is a common one for Russian missile tests but the timing of the announcement was curious: barely 24 hours after the president of Finland and prime minister of Norway held tense talks with Vladimir Putin calling for de-escalation in Ukraine – and soon after it was revealed that the UK has an unusual number of its nuclear deterrent submarines at sea.
But while Russia’s missile landed on Europe’s doorstep, experts said it was not just a message to Nato: Putin may also have wanted to put the USA, Korea and Japan on notice.
“The test may be routine, but it sends a signal to the West,” said defence analyst Malcolm Davis. “It can be interpreted as sabre rattling… demonstrating the capability to intimidate and deter.”
What is a Bulava missile?
The Bulava is a new Russian submarine-launched ballistic missile (SLBM) that, like the UK’s Trident missiles, is designed to be launched from underwater. It entered into official service in 2024 after two decades of tests.
About 12m long and 2m in diameter, it can fly more than 8,000km (the distance from London to Beijing, for comparison). Russia has claimed its maneuverability makes it “invulnerable” to anti-ballistic missile defence systems.
The SLBM test launch from the sea off Russia’s far-east coast (Photo by Russia MOD)It can carry at least six nuclear warheads, which separate in flight to hit individual targets with an accuracy of a few hundred metres. Each warhead is reportedly more than 100kt, or more than six times the power of the bomb dropped on Hiroshima.
There have been 35 documented test launches of unarmed Bulava missiles – before this week, the most recent was in October 2024, and the one before that was in November 2023. The last ten tests, since June 2017, were judged successful in hitting their targets. Russia reportedly has more than 120 Bulavas deployed on eight submarines.
What is a Borei-A class submarine?
Russia reportedly has more than 120 Bulavas deployed on eight submarines. The K-553 Generalissimo Suvorov, which launched this week’s test missile, is the country’s third of its Borei-A class submarines, commissioned just under four years ago.
They are replacing Soviet-era submarines as the core of Russia’s nuclear deterrent. Designed in St Petersburg, the subs have featured prominently in recent navy exercises.
The K-553 Generalissimo Suvorov, which launched the test missile (Photo: Russia MOD)Each Borei-A submarine carries 16 Bulava missiles, Tass reported.
‘Credible deterrent’
Most of Russia’s Borei-A submarines are based with its Pacific Fleet, which is considered a “key strategic deterrent” in the Asia-Pacific, Alexander Stepanov, a military expert at the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, told the Russian Tass news agency in August.
“[They] project security capabilities not only to our borderlands and nearby waters, but also de facto provide a strategic umbrella for our closest regional allies – North Korea and China – providing strategic capabilities for jointly deterring US aggression,” Stepanov said.
He noted the recent expansion of offensive weapons capabilities in Korea and Japan.
“The Eastern region is becoming just as significant a strategic concern for Russia as the West.”
Russia’s Northern Fleet also has three Borei-A subs. Over the last month the Northern Fleet staged drills it said were aimed at becoming “masters of the Arctic”, as retreating Arctic ice makes it an increasingly important military and economic corridor.
The missile test was more than just a technical exercise, according to Erwan Halna du Fretay, a defense analyst with Army Recognition Group in Belgium.
“Such launches serve several functions: training crews, verifying weapon systems and demonstrating the credibility of deterrent capabilities,” he said.
Nuclear deterrence includes the concept of “second strike”: the capability to hit an opponent with devastating force even if they hit you first.
Russian submariners prepare for the missile test (Photo: Russia MOD)He pointed out that France launched an unarmed nuclear-capable M5 missile from its submarine Le Vigilant earlier in October.
“Regular demonstrations of nuclear capabilities contribute to the strategic credibility of nuclear-armed states,” he said. “In Russia’s case, this political dimension carries particular weight because of the war in Ukraine and continuing tensions with European Nato members.
“Since the beginning of the conflict, Moscow has repeatedly referred to its nuclear arsenal in its strategic communications, particularly to discourage direct Western military intervention and influence decisions concerning assistance to Kyiv.”
The launch from the Sea of Okhotsk demostrated that Russia can pose a threat to its enemies from the other side of the world, he said.
‘Nuclear readiness’
The test came amid growing tensions between Nato and Russia, with sabre-rattling on both sides.
On Tuesday a US B-52 bomber flew to northern Europe, escorted by British and Norwegian fighter jets, as part of America’s Global Thunder nuclear command and control exercise.
US Strategic Command said the annual exercise is aimed to “enhance nuclear readiness and ensure a safe, secure, effective and credible strategic deterrent force”.
StratCom added it was “not in response to actions by any nation… or current world events”. However the exercise reinforces the credibility of American security guarantees to its allies – coming at a time when US commitment to Nato’s mutual defence agreement is under question.
A finger presses the ‘launch’ button, just below another button that apparently sets the ‘mode’ (Photo: Russia MOD)Last week Nato kicked off Neptune Strike, a series of drills including UK, Italian and Turkish naval groups that “reinforce Nato’s readiness to respond decisively to threats”, according to the official media release. It, too, involved action around the Norwegian Sea. and firing exercises in the Gulf of Finland.
Also on Tuesday Finland’s president Alexander Stubb and Norway’s prime minister Jonas Støre called Russian president Vladimir Putin, for a conversation they described afterwards as a “frank and substantive” discussion on ending the Ukraine war.
“We stressed the importance of de-escalation”, Støre said afterwards.
And the test coincided with an unusual situation for the UK: three of its four nuclear deterrent submarines were out at sea this week, according to The Times. Usually the UK can only manage two, due to the need for regular maintenance on the ageing Trident-armed Vanguard-class submarines. it is five years since three were at sea at once.
However experts told the paper this was not “anything to do with strategic messaging” but rather just a sign of improved maintenance operations.
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