A many as 20 Finnish MPs have reported having their homes broken into and their belongings re-arranged, in what could mark a chilling escalation in Russia’s grey-zone warfare.
Speaking at a press conference, Finland’s parliamentary speaker, Jussi Halla-aho, confirmed investigations were underway after a “significant” number of MPs had alerted authorities to suspected break-ins or signs of attempted intrusions.
The first cases were reported to parliamentary authorities on Wednesday, he continued, with investigations gathering pace following reports in Finnish media about the number of incidents in recent days.
Asked whether a foreign power could be behind the break-ins, Finland’s Prime Minister, Petteri Orpo, said it was “very possible”.
Orpo did not directly name Russia when pressed about who could be behind the incidents, but later hinted at the potential for its involvement.
“If someone tries to destabilise Finland, our sense of security, or our support for example for Ukraine, it has the opposite effect. It strengthens our unity,” he said.
Russia has long used home invasions as an intimidation tactic against critics and dissidents, with experts warning Putin could have ordered agents to target other European nations as part of his hybrid war against the West.
What did the home invasions look like?
Finnish authorities have not released extensive details on the break-ins, but Halla-aho told reporters on Thursday many of the incidents involved only slight changes to the interior of the affected properties.
He hinted many of the signs were subtle and could easily be missed by residents who did not know what to look for.
Authorities suspect in some cases marks were left deliberately to tip off residents there had been a break-in, as there were no signs of forced entry to the properties in question.
Finland’s public broadcaster, Yle, cited sources as saying some MPs returned home to discover doors they believed had been left closed suddenly open, while others reported finding lights had been unexpectedly switched on.
Some reports in Finnish media have claimed rubbish was also left in bins belonging to MPs, and that some properties showed more obvious signs of attempts to gain access.
One MP reportedly even returned home to find his toilet had been used and left unflushed.
Was Russia involved?
Helsinki police have been tasked with leading the initial investigation and have so far provided no indication as to the scope of their enquiries.
“The inquiry is at an early stage, and the police have nothing further to comment on at this time,” the force said in a statement.
Halla-aho was also quick to caution against speculation.
“At this stage, there is no information about the motive or who was responsible,” he told Finnish media.
However, Henri Vanhanen, a defence expert with the Atlantic Council who previously served as a special adviser in the European Parliament, suggested the break-ins had all the hallmarks of a Russian intimidation effort.
“Russian security services have a long history of similar activities. Intruding into homes can be used to gain information, but it can also show the target that even their most private space can be accessed,” he wrote in a post on X.
His assessment was backed up by Jane Hardy, a security expert with the Australian Strategic Policy Institute, who described the break-ins as “audacious”.
She noted Orpo would not have framed the potential involvement of foreign actors by mentioning Finland’s support for Ukraine unless there was some evidence linking the incidents to Russia.
“It’s definitely, in my view, an acceleration of grey-zone tactics,” Hardy said.
“What Putin has now said directly, in his threat toward Nato members, [is] that Russia will use its entire range of weapons, including nuclear, and you can read from that, its entire range of grey-zone tactics.”
What could Putin gain from the grey-zone attacks?
While the Finnish break-ins unlikely yielded any useful intelligence for the Kremlin, their personal nature fulfilled an important role in Russia’s hybrid war.
“I think the psychological element is important in the tactical efforts to undermine people’s trust in government,” Hardy explained.
Sowing division within Western nations has long been a key tool for Putin, helping to weaken public support for policies supporting Ukraine and targeting Russian interests.
Targeting politicians could also result in hesitancy to take further steps combatting aggression from the Kremlin, with the break-ins coming at the same time Finland was investing heavily in reinforcing its border with Russia.
The longer the grey-zone attacks proved effective, Hardy suggested, the more likely Putin would be to expand their use.
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