Week 2 of the college football season is in the books.
Each week, I try to break down 5 prevailing college football narratives that have emerged from the weekend and see if they can be backed up — or refuted — by publicly available data.
Last week, I covered Michigan’s struggling offense, Darian Mensah’s budding Heisman candidacy and the Big Ten’s struggles to start the year, among other topics.
Let’s take a look at 5 more ideas coming out of Week 2
Buying: Oklahoma and Michigan are both bad teams
I didn’t like what I saw from either team in Ann Arbor on Saturday. Michigan did get the win, but it came despite another horrific offensive performance. Michigan’s EPA-per-play slotted in at the 23rd percentile, per Game on Paper. And that’s with an unsustainably good performance on passing downs — 48% success rate. Michigan was in 2nd-and-long all day but found ways to move the chains (at least in the first half).
Michigan won because it recovered all 3 fumbles in this game and picked off John Mateer in the 4th quarter, which set up the game-winning score. If not for that gift from Mateer, I’m not sure Michigan would have scored at all in the second half or overtime. The Wolverines gained just 24 yards on 11 plays in the 4th quarter.
Oklahoma’s outlook on offense is just as bad. Mateer missed open receivers and made poor decisions all day long. Offensive coordinator Ben Arbuckle was late to adjust, calling 16 passes to 15 rushes in the first half despite Mateer’s 7-for-16 start. When Arbuckle finally did lean into the ground game, it was in OU’s 2-minute drill at the end of the first half and the Sooners’ drive stalled out.
I think this is basically the same Oklahoma team that we saw a year ago. The Sooners have an elite defense that will keep them in most games, but their offense is highly suspect and will be reliant on big-play touchdowns. That worked out fine last season, but I’m skeptical OU will be able to get anywhere close to 10 wins again with that formula. Oklahoma is starring down the barrel of a 2-3 start with Georgia and Texas on the docket before mid-October.
OU also looks like it will be at a significant — to put it lightly — quarterback disadvantage in road trips to Starkville, Gainesville and Columbia over the second half of the season. We now have an 11-game sample of Mateer being a well-below-average quarterback at Oklahoma. He has a -5% completion percentage over expected (CPOE), an average depth of target (ADOT) of 7.9, a deep-throw rate of just 19.1%, a rushing success rate of only 44% and a terrible 6.8% sack rate across all of CollegeFootballData.com’s charted games. All of those numbers are well below average for an FBS quarterback over that span.
If OU’s defense doesn’t have anything to play for when those games come, it could get ugly fast. Oklahoma also has one of the worst injury crises in the SEC ongoing with left tackle Michael Fasusi and star linebacker Kip Lewis both banged up.
Selling: Texas needs Arch Manning to be a Heisman-caliber quarterback
Arch Manning and the Texas offense struggled for much of Saturday night’s game against Ohio State. In the end, it didn’t matter — Manning and the Longhorns took better care of the ball in the second half and got hot late, storming back for a 24-23 win over Ohio State in Austin.
The advanced metrics are still pretty lukewarm about Manning, as they were last season. His CPOE so far this year is a slightly-above-average 3.8% with a slightly-below-average ADOT of 8 yards. That’s more or less in line with what he did last season in charted games, too.
Here’s the thing — it might not matter. Texas’s skill talent and defense are so good that if Manning is simply a quarterback who takes care of the ball and keeps the opponent honest with his legs, the Longhorns are going to win a lot of games this season.
Although Texas was fortunate in some ways to pull off a historic comeback against the Buckeyes, the postgame box score says UT deserved every bit of its win. The Longhorns had a superior success rate, equal EPA-per-play totals and were much better on 3rd downs and in the red zone. If not for a couple of flukey first-quarter turnovers by the Longhorns, Texas could have won this game by even more.
That’s despite a relatively pedestrian statline from Manning — 195 yards on 37 pass attempts. If not for some bad drops from Cam Coleman and Ryan Wingo, that line would look a little better, but the point remains. Manning can be a slightly-above-average quarterback and that may be enough for Texas to win it all in 2026.
Prediction Markets College Football SEC Championship Winner (2026) Learn more about Prediction Markets Kalshi Georgia 29% Texas 26% LSU 17% Alabama 7% Ole Miss 4% Oklahoma 4% Tennessee 2% Texas A&M 2% PredictBuying: Mizzou’s offense is legit
Kansas might be bad, but I really liked what I saw from Mizzou’s offense in the Border War on Friday night. Specifically Austin Simmons, who had some preseason hype entering the 2025 campaign with Ole Miss before losing that job to Trinidad Chambliss.
Simmons threw for 292 yards and 3 touchdowns in the win over the Jayhawks on Friday night. He averaged over 10 yards per attempt, too. He posted an 11.7% CPOE while his average depth of target was nearly 12 yards. That’s outstanding against a P4 opponent on the road.
Mizzou’s offense isn’t quite at full strength with Ahmad Hardy still recovering, but the Tigers still have a strong running game. They’re also not suffering from the same new-offensive-coordinator hangover that programs like Oregon and Georgia Tech are enduring early on in 2026.
I’d be interested in buying Mizzou over 7.5 wins at +125 or better at college football prediction markets.
Buying: Kamario Taylor is an elite QB
Allow me to join the Kamario Taylor bandwagon. Mississippi State was only a slight road favorite against Minnesota on Saturday but Taylor was completely dominant in a 38-13 victory. He threw for 227 yards and 3 touchdowns while also rushing for 86 yards against the Golden Gophers.
From an advanced metrics standpoint, Taylor’s stats are really solid. He’s posted a 6% CPOE, an 8.4% deep throw CPOE, a 1.8% sack rate and a 67% rushing success rate. But let’s put the advanced stats down for a second and just watch him throw the rock:
Kamario Taylor is out here slinging it for the Bulldogs. pic.twitter.com/AZeemVz3ra
— CBS Sports College Football (@CBSSportsCFB) September 12, 2026The Kamario Taylor Show pic.twitter.com/jV13lgU2S9
— CBS Sports (@CBSSports) September 12, 2026Completely misread this game.I’ll never doubt Kamario Taylor again. pic.twitter.com/9SRSJfepxL
— Taylor Lewan (@TaylorLewan77) September 13, 2026Absolute seeds, all of them. He’s 6-foot-4 with a rocket arm, incredible pocket presence and, so far, this season, pinpoint accuracy. And he can run. His 18 rushes with a 67% rushing success rate is the best combination of volume and efficiency for any P4 quarterback so far this season.
I don’t know if I can recommend a Kamario Taylor Heisman Trophy ticket for 2026 — I doubt Mississippi State will win enough games for him to get the votes. But I do think Taylor should be a household name in short order and will enter 2027 as a well-deserved Heisman frontrunner.
Selling: Oregon can still be a title contender
Oregon was among the top media picks to win the national title this season and I think those dreams have largely crashed and burned already. Yes, the 12-team field gives the Ducks a little bit of margin for error — but not much. They still have to play at Ohio State and USC. If they play like they did on Saturday against OK State, losses to Michigan, Washington and Nebraska aren’t out of the question either.
What’s gone wrong for the Ducks? The answer is on both sides of the ball. Dan Lanning decided to make internal promotions at OC and DC after Will Stein and Tosh Lupoi were plucked for head coaching jobs this offseason. Both decisions, particularly the choice to elevate Drew Mehringer, appear to be serious mistakes.
Mehringer was a questionable hire to begin with. He previously called plays at New Mexico in 2021 and Rutgers in 2016. His 2021 New Mexico offense ranked 129th out of 130 FBS teams in schedule-adjusted EPA per play. His 2016 Rutgers offense was 120th in that category.
So far in 2026, Dante Moore has a passer efficiency rating that ranks 44th nationally. That’s not even adjusted for the relatively weak schedule Oregon has faced so far this season. Boise State has a competitive program, but OK State had won just 4 of its prior 25 games entering Saturday. Several difficult Big Ten games are still to come. Things are going to get a lot tougher on the Ducks before they get better.
It’s certainly worth noting that Oregon’s defense hasn’t been any good either. The Ducks are 95th in yards per play allowed through 2 games. New DC Chris Hampton only has 2 previous years as a full-time play-caller — in 2021-22 when he was the DC at Tulane.
Pick: Oregon under 8.5 wins (44% on Kalshi)
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