Inside the Numbers: Why Luther Burden III Is So Important to the Bears Offense ...Middle East

Even though the injury to Luther Burden III will keep him out of the preseason, there is an expectation that the wide receiver should be ready to roll when the Chicago Bears begin the regular season against the Carolina Panthers in 34 days.

The expectations for Burden entering his second year as a pro were high. And that Bears Head Coach Ben Johnson said he was buying Luther Burden stock felt telling. To be clear, I’m not dumping my Burden stock because of the injury. If anything, I’d be down to buy more. That said, his absence will be felt. Thankfully, preseason games aren’t a high priority. Still, I found myself digging into the numbers to see how important Burden is to the offense.

After parsing the data, I’ve concluded that having Burden for the regular season opener is far more important than having him appear in an exhibition game. Did I really need the numbers for that? No, probably not. But they do give me a fuller understanding of his value in this scheme.

Jan 4, 2026; Chicago, Illinois, USA; Bears WR Luther Burden III vs. Lions CB Avonte Maddox at Soldier Field. Mandatory Credit: Matt Marton-Imagn Images

These Numbers Capture Luther Burden’s Importance to the Bears’ Offense

Luther Burden III is a key piece of the Chicago Bears offense. And despite the groin injury that will keep him out of the preseason, Burden still seems primed for a breakout based on these numbers.

TARGET SHARE

In Weeks 1-10, Luther Burden III received a 7.4 percent target share. His numbers during that stretch: 23 targets, 19 catches, 249 receiving yards, and one touchdown. That comes out to a full-season pace of 43 targets, 36 catches, 470 receiving yards, and two touchdowns. But starting in Week 11, Burden generated an 18.4 percent target share. The increase in looks led to the wideout posting: 37 targets, 28 catches, 403 receiving yards, and one touchdown. That comes out to a 79-catch, 1,142-yard, 3-touchdown pace on 105 targets. Where can I sign up to lock in those numbers in 2026?

It was an eye-opening turn of events when Burden took off midway through his rookie season. Sure, some of Burden’s in-season emergence could be chalked up to taking over while Rome Odunze was out with an injury. Still, ESPN’s Ben Solak points out that Burden’s 26.8 percent target rate (on a per-route basis) was higher than Odunze’s (20.9%) and was behind only tight end Colston Loveland (29.1%) for the team lead. With DJ Moore’s departure, things were lining up for Burden to get a bulk of those looks. And while he still might, this injury will slow his momentum.

YARDS PER ROUTE RUN

I like to check on Yards Per Route Run leaderboards this time of year for fantasy football purposes. The metric measures the average number of yards a receiver generates each time they run a route, which I use as a tie-breaker of sorts when sorting through wide receiver and tight end targets on my draft board. However, that metric has value when discussing Xs and Os in games that matter. This article on Fantasy Life and this one from Pro Football Focus do a good job contextualizing why this particular stat matters.

When attempting to identify 2026 breakout performers, CBS Sports had Burden down for 2.71 yards per route run in 2025. That number was the third-highest of the 152 wideouts who ran at least 100 routes last season. Meanwhile, ESPN’s metrics had him at 2.92 yards per route run — which tied A.J. Brown for the best number posted by a rookie over the past 15 years. No matter how you slice it, Luther Burden III was explosive and efficient last season. A higher volume of snaps and routes had people dreaming big things were in Burden’s future.

CALEB WILLIAMS’ PASSER RATING

We have spilled a healthy amount of virtual ink on tight end Colston Loveland’s connection with Bears quarterback Caleb Williams. But we should also be doing the same with Luther Burden III. These are QB1’s regular-season numbers when targeting Burden:

46/59 (78%) 651 yards 11.0 yards/attempt 2 touchdowns 0 interceptions 123.9 passer rating

I thought Williams did well targeting Burden in space and on short routes, which allowed the receiver to use his run-after-the-catch skills. But Williams also clearly trusted Burden on deep passes, too. The ability to separate from defenders showed up in a big way, especially down the stretch.

The good news is that Luther Burden III is expected to be back for the team’s Week 1 showdown against the Carolina Panthers. Getting a full 17 games from Burden is of the utmost importance. Here’s hoping the time he misses during training camp and the preseason won’t negatively impact the blossoming connection he has with his quarterback.

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