Two weeks ago, we would have been jumping out of our skin for a rumor – even a loose, mostly speculative one like today’s entry – connecting the Chicago Cubs to the best pitcher on the planet, Tarik Skubal. But obviously, a lot has happened over the last two weeks. Specifically, the Cubs have amassed ten straight losses, with two more tough contests still ahead of us tonight (Bubba Chandler vs Jameson Taillon) and tomorrow (Paul Skenes vs Colin Rea).
But there is still a lot of baseball to be played. And even though the losing streak has done more than enough damage already, the Cubs’ playoff odds are still surprisngly healthy according to both PECOTA and Baseball Reference. FanGraphs … not so much. But hey, two out of three ain’t bad.
Either way, let’s check in on this latest rumor and then discuss.
Detroit Tigers starting pitcher Tarik Skubal | David Reginek-USA TODAY SportsTarik Skubal to the Cubs?
According to Jon Heyman, the Chicago Cubs are the team to watch in any trade for Tarik Skubal this season. And, yes, as you’ll see, this was said AFTER they dropped their tenth straight last night in Pittsburgh:
My #1 team to trade for Skubal is the Cubs. They’ve lost ten in a row…certainly hitting is their No. 1 issue, but they lost Cade Horton, obviously a No. 1 pitcher, their No. 1 pitcher. And to me, that makes the most sense for a trade (with the Tigers for Tarik Skubal). I’ve heard that they’re a team floating around a bit; I’m not going to say how much they’ve talked to the Tigers. But we do know that (Tigers President Scott Harris used to work for the Cubs), so he certainly knows Jed Hoyer well, knows their system, probably better than most…. So the Cubs are my No. 1 fit.
The other four teams mentioned by Heyman, in order of likelihood: Padres, Yankees, Dodgers, and Blue Jays. Heyman added that it’s always possible that a team like the Brewers, Braves, or Rays could jump in, but he sees it as less likely. And although he didn’t make this point specifically, there is one good reason for that: the cost.
In case you forgot, Tarik Skubal won a record-setting arbitration case this winter, securing for himself a $32 million salary in 2026, his final year before free agency. And while some of that money will have been paid out by the time he’s dealt, we could still be looking at $15M+ heading over in any deal when the final accounting is done. So, regardless of any obvious fit between the Tigers and a team like the Brewers/Rays/etc, the small market organizations just may not be set up to take on that kind of cash mid-season.
The Cubs, in theory, would be.
They will also be buyers, according to Heyman, who had this to say in a later segment specifically about the Cubs:
“The Cubs are not going to be a seller….The Cubs are going to be a buyer, that’s why I named them as my No. 1 team for Skubal. They are missing their ace, in Horton, who is out for the year. Look, their offense isn’t great, so they may look at offense (via trade), but they have a great defender at every position, so I’m not sure how they improve the lineup on the field. That’s not gonna be that easy. They may just have to live with what they are, which is a great defensive team, average hitting team who’s in a slump right now, and that’s just the way it’s gonna have to be. And they’ll go for Skubal or whomever to bolster that rotation, which hasn’t been great….”
There’s another wrinkle, however, and that’s the fact that Tarik Skubal recently underwent a procedure to remove loose bodies from his elbow. But that recovery is reportedly accelerating much faster than expected, which is what led to the increase in Tarik Skubal trade rumors in the first place (well, that, and the fact that the Tigers are 13-games under .500 and in last place of the AL Central).
Brett opined on this the last time it came up, making a bunch of points that still apply today:
“If the Tigers decide they are out of the race, then there will be absolutely not reason for them not to capitalize and trade Tarik Skubal for the biggest price they can get. He isn’t re-signing in Detroit, realistically speaking, so you’re talking about the Tigers getting only a draft pick after the first round upon his departure in free agency. They could get MUCH MORE than that at the Trade Deadline if he’s healthy.
Fair to start wondering, then: if the Tigers do make Tarik Skubal available in trade, would you want to see the Cubs pay up multiple top prospects to bring him in for the stretch run and, hopefully, a playoff run?
Note that the question is not whether you’d want Skubal on the Cubs. That’d be a hilarious question. He’s one of the two or three best pitchers on the planet, and would be on the short list of players you’d choose to add to the Cubs if you could pick ANY player.
Instead, the question is whether you’d want to see the Cubs pay the steep price to make a short-term move to add Tarik Skubal.
It’s not a question I’m prepared to answer definitively today, because I do think it’ll depend a great deal on the Cubs’ relative playoff positioning come late July, the projected state of the roster down the stretch, and obviously how Skubal is looking after he returns.
But I will say broadly that I’m not opposed to this particular Cubs team paying through the nose to get a true ace for the stretch run. It’s the one big obvious need, and, when things are going right, this is a team that justifies a short-term go-for-it trade. Moreover, so much of the Cubs’ farm system is concentrated among positional talents that may not ultimately find a home on the big league team, and thus would best be used in a trade anyway.
All that said, you know the risks. The Cubs could give up three of their best prospects (or whatever) only to see Skubal get hurt again or uncharacteristically struggle. Or, the Cubs could get great production out of Skubal, but fail in other ways either before or during the postseason. It’s not like the question is “do you trade top prospects to guarantee a World Series run?” That’d be a much easier question to answer!
As for the longer-term implications of acquiring Tarik Skubal ahead of free agency, two things are true: (1) there is ZERO chance he signs an extension before free agency, and (2) that doesn’t mean having him ahead of free agency is worthless if you intend on pursuing him. Those two or three months to show him what it’s like in your organization? In your city? In your ballpark, with your fans? That has value in a free agent pursuit.
… but that only matters if you’re willing to spend at the top of the market to make a truly competitive offer. I have my doubts that the Cubs are going to be willing to offer $400 or $500 million to ANY free agent, much less a pitcher heading into his age-30 season.
So, then, when it comes to the longer-term implications on this topic, I almost completely ignore them. The trade would be about trying to max out your 2026 club. Period.”
For me, if the Cubs are dead-set on adding to this team by way of a starting pitcher, Tarik Skubal might be the ONE rental that makes more sense for the Cubs than paying up for a guy with multiple years of control. Indeed, in a vacuum/compared to any other rental, I’d rather see the Cubs pay more for a cost-controlled starter, who can help fill the gap that will be left next year by outgoing free agents Jameson Taillon, Shota Imanaga, and Matthew Boyd (all free agents) … and, to a lesser extent, Cade Horton, who may not make it back until August, at the earliest.
But Skubal is Skubal. When he’s healthy, and he usually is, he’s the best pitcher you can possibly have on your team right now. And if he comes back and starts pitching well, the Cubs may wind up calling the Tigers to see what’s up.
Of course, I’m not blind to the moment. Entertaining this idea *right now* obviously assumes the Cubs don’t keep on losing … and I don’t just mean this current streak. The offense will have to turn things around in a big way to even begin justifying a move like this. But like I said up top, there’s a lot of baseball left to play. So let’s just see how it goes and take it one step at a time.
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