Les Blues host the Azzurri in Lille, where the teams drew in 2024. Will this year’s clash see the same drama? We look ahead to this Six Nations match with our France vs Italy prediction and preview.
France return to Lille this weekend in fine fettle, sitting top of the standings after two rounds with maximum points to their name. Thoughts of a Grand Slam might be in the back of the mind, but against this Italy side they can’t get ahead of themselves. Particularly as the Azzurri arrive with something that has, historically, been rare for them in the Six Nations: belief.
Italy came agonisingly close to victory the last time these sides met on French soil, Paolo Garbisi – rushed by a combination of the shot clock and the ball falling off the tee – hit the post with the last kick of the game to deny the Italians a famous win.
Italy’s form hasn’t been just a flash in the pan, though. Under Gonzalo Quesada they are playing a brand of rugby that is both stylish, pragmatic and, crucially, is delivering results.
Italy defeated Scotland in their opening game and were unlucky not to get more out of their trip to Dublin last weekend, going into the break ahead on the scoreboard for the first time away to Ireland.
But history in this matchup favours Les Bleus. France have won 23 of their 26 Six Nations meetings with Italy, losing only twice – both in Rome, back in 2011 and 2013. Can Italy go one better than their 2024 draw and finally win on French soil?
Where the Game Will Be Won
The battle for supremacy at the set-piece will be vital in this game. France have had it all their own way at the lineout in this Six Nations, winning 27/27 on their own throw. However, Italy have been the biggest disruptors when defending the opposition lineout, coming away with possession from 21% of the throws they’ve faced after the opening two rounds – a Championship-high.
The scrum will also be a fascinating battle. France and Italy are two of three teams to boast a 100% record on their own feed in this Six Nations, although the Azzurri have been more destructive, winning eight scrum penalties, while only England (29%) have won a higher percentage on their opponents’ feed (Italy – 17%).
France have been the best attacking outfit in this year’s Six Nations, their 13 tries already four more than the next best team. Five of those tries have come directly from kick returns – their lethal back three punishing any wayward efforts into the backfield.
However, Italy have been solid defensively. Their tackle success rate of 88.4% is less than one percentage point off Scotland in top spot, but perhaps more importantly, Quesada’s men have been incredibly impactful with their hits, with 11.1% of their tackles being dominant – the best rate of any side.
Italy have the highest rate of ‘low’ tackles, 39.2% of their attempts being on the hips or lower. Could that backfire against a France side who have it in their DNA to free the hands and get the offload away?
Les Bleus have made a staggering 44 offloads after two games – 28 more than Italy, who have made the second most in the competition.
France vs Italy Fantasy Picks
Virtually any French back is likely to accumulate plenty of fantasy points, but if you fancy being a bit different there are some decent options up front too.
Hooker Julien Marchand has scored a try in three of his last four games for France and is solid around the park too, making offloads and winning turnovers – both useful for building the points tally.
Similarly, Charles Ollivon is no stranger to the try line. He’s scored in both rounds and has recorded at least one try for France in each of the last eight calendar years – the only Tier 1 forward to manage that, with just Ardie Savea, Codie Taylor and Jamie George able to semulate that if they cross the whitewash some time in 2026.
Ollivon starts on the bench this weekend, so he could be the perfect supersub.
For Italy, Danilo Fischetti is one of the best props around at the minute and he’s a real option in the front row, making 15 carries this year and gaining more metres-in-contact than anyone in his position (28) – those extra few yards could be all the difference in racking up some extra points.
In the backs, Tommaso Menoncello remains a great option, but perhaps Monty Ioane could get back to his scintillating best this Sunday. He’s made the most offloads of any Italy player this campaign (5, joint-third most overall) and has gained 100+ metres in each of his last two matches against France.
France vs Italy Prediction
Despite Italy’s vast improvement in recent years, the Opta supercomputer still sees France as big favourites in this match, with a 92.2% chance of winning, compared to Italy’s 7.1%.
The supercomputer expects Les Bleus to win by 23 points, with a 41-18 scoreline being most likely.
France vs Italy Lineups
Framce: 15 Thomas Ramos, 14 Theo Attissogbe, 13 Emilien Gailleton, 12 Fabien Brau-Boirie, 11 Louis Bielle-Biarrey, 10 Matthieu Jalibert, 9 Antoine Dupont, 1 Jean-Baptiste Gros, 2 Julien Marchand, 3 Dorian Aldegheri, 4 Thibaud Flament, 5 Emmanuel Meafou, 6 Francois Cros, 7 Oscar Jegou, 8 Anthony Jelonch
Replacements: 16 Peato Mauvaka, 17 Rodrigue Neti, 18 Georges-Henri Colombe, 19 Charles Ollivon, 20 Mickael Guillard, 21 Lenni Nouchi, 22 Baptiste Serin, 23 Pierre-Louis Barassi
Italy: 15 Ange Capuozzo, 14 Louis Lynagh, 13 Tommaso Menoncello, 12 Leonardo Marin, 11 Monty Ioane, 10 Paolo Garbisi, 9 Alessandro Fusco, 1 Danilo Fischetti, 2 Giacomo Nicotera, 3 Simone Ferrari, 4 Niccolo Cannone, 5 Andrea Zambonin, 6 Michele Lamaro, 7 Manuel Zuliani, 8 Lorenzo Cannone
Replacements: 16 Pablo Dimcheff, 17 Mirco Spagnolo, 18 Giosue Zilocchi, 19 Federico Ruzza, 20 Riccardo Favretto, 21 David Odiase, 22 Alessandro Garbisi, 23 Paolo Odogwu
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France vs Italy Prediction: Six Nations 2026 Preview Opta Analyst.
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