We’re breaking down this weekend’s top NFL teams from No. 1 to 32, along with their TRACR, which incorporates individual talent on a roster and team performance.
Entering Week 12 of the 2025 NFL season, we’re starting to see some separation between the contenders and pretenders.
That’s because Week 11 was a wild one with the Denver Broncos beating the Kansas City Chiefs, the Los Angeles Rams having their way with Sam Darnold and the Seattle Seahawks and Chicago Bears taking over sole possession of first place in the NFC North.
The Buffalo Bills kept pace with the New England Patriots in the AFC East behind a historic performance from Josh Allen against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
What does this all mean for Week 12? Our power rankings are based on our TRACR model for this week specifically, so they’re focused on how teams will fare in Week 12 rather than how they’ve performed to date or their long-term Super Bowl win probabilities.
Here are this weekend’s top teams from No. 1 to 32, along with their TRACR, which incorporates individual talent on a roster and team performance. We’ve also included each team’s offensive and defensive EVE (efficiency versus expected) ranking.
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1. Philadelphia Eagles (13.83 TRACR)
Expected Record: 13-4 Playoff Probability: 99.7% Super Bowl Win Probability: 18.0% Offensive EVE Rank: 15th Defensive EVE Rank: 8thThe defending champions are not only No. 1 in overall season-long TRACR, but they’re also at the top for Week 12. The Eagles seek their season-high fifth straight win.
Next Three Games: at Cowboys, vs. Bears, at Chargers
2. Detroit Lions (13.43)
Expected Record: 10-7 Playoff Probability: 72.8% Super Bowl Win Probability: 6.6% Offensive EVE Rank: 6th Defensive EVE Rank: 7thJared Goff had completed at least 70.0% of his passes in eight consecutive road starts prior to Sunday’s visit to Philadelphia. He only completed 37.8% of his attempts on Sunday. That particular streak might be over but the Lions are still really good.
Next Three Games: vs. Giants, vs. Packers, vs. Cowboys
3. Green Bay Packers (13.40)
Expected Record: 10-6-1 Playoff Probability: 83.2% Super Bowl Win Probability: 10.9% Offensive EVE Rank: 10th Defensive EVE Rank: 3rdThe Packers avoided their third straight loss, but it was a costly victory over the Giants. Josh Jacobs suffered a knee injury and could miss some time for 6-3-1 Green Bay. Jacobs had become the second Packer to have consecutive seasons with double-digit rushing TDs after Jim Taylor did so in three straight seasons from 1960-62.
Next Three Games: vs. Vikings, at Lions, vs. Bears
4. New England Patriots (12.99)
Expected Record: 13-4 Playoff Probability: 99.7% Super Bowl Win Probability: 12.2% Offensive EVE: 3rd Defensive EVE: 10thIt’s starting to feel like the Tom Brady era again. The Patriots are 9-2 and own the second-highest probability of winning the Super Bowl, according to the Opta supercomputer.
In 11 starts this season, the @Patriots' Drake Maye has:2500+ passing yards250+ rushing yards20+ TD passes70.0+ comp pct.800+ win pctNo other QB in NFL history has put up those numbers over any span of 11 starts in a single regular season. pic.twitter.com/6s2EdZKB1Q
— OptaSTATS (@OptaSTATS) November 14, 2025Next Three Games: at Bengals, vs. Giants, BYE, vs. Bills
5. Los Angeles Rams (12.18)
Expected Record: 12-5 Playoff Probability: 96.0% Super Bowl Win Probability: 7.7% Offensive EVE: 7th Defensive EVE: 5thMatthew Stafford for MVP? He’s building quite the case for himself with the Rams at 8-2. Stafford has 22 touchdowns and no interceptions over his last seven games.
Next Three Games: vs. Buccaneers, at Panthers, at Cardinals
6. Denver Broncos (12.07)
Expected Record: 13-4 Playoff Probability: 99.4% Super Bowl Win Probability: 9.8% Offensive EVE: 27th Defensive EVE: 2ndAll nine of the Broncos’ wins have come in games in which they trailed at some point. They trailed the Chiefs 19-16 on Sunday before coming back to win thanks to a Will Lutz field goal as time expired. It is the longest such streak to begin any season in Broncos franchise history.
Next Three Games: BYE, at Commanders, at Raiders, vs. Packers
7. Kansas City Chiefs (11.67)
Expected Record: 9-8 Playoff Probability: 34.9% Super Bowl Win Probability: 1.4% Offensive EVE: 9th Defensive EVE: 20thThe Broncos are the only team to hold Kansas City under 20 points in at least five straight games since Andy Reid took over as Chiefs head coach in 2013. The 22-19 divisional loss forced the supercomputer to drop their playoff probability way down after falling to 5-5. But it’s hard to count Patrick Mahomes and Co. out.
Next Three Games: vs. Colts, at Cowboys, vs. Texans
8. Dallas Cowboys (11.38)
Expected Record: 8-8-1 Playoff Probability: 20.0% Super Bowl Win Probability: 1.1% Offensive EVE: 11th Defensive EVE: 29thThe Cowboys traded Micah Parsons in the offseason and their defense paid the price. They made a couple of moves since, including adding Quinnen Williams, and looked better on that side of the ball in a 33-16 win over the Raiders. However, a tough stretch is on the horizon.
Next Three Games: vs. Eagles, vs. Chiefs, at Lions
9. Baltimore Ravens (10.88)
Expected Record: 9-8 Playoff Probability: 52.0% Super Bowl Win Probability: 2.4% Offensive EVE: 5th Defensive EVE: 19thYes, Lamar Jackson is back. However, the team’s defense has forced eight turnovers since the start of its four-game winning streak in Week 8. Baltimore had just three takeaways from Weeks 1-7, tied for the second fewest in the NFL over the span (Jets – one).
Next Three Games: vs. Jets, vs. Bengals, vs. Steelers
10. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (10.46)
Expected Record: 10-7 Playoff Probability: 79.6% Super Bowl Win Probability: 4.1% Offensive EVE: 23rd Defensive EVE: 23rdThe Buccaneers gave the Bills everything they could handle in a 44-32 loss. They’re still dangerous team, leading the NFC South and having a 68.7% chance of making the playoffs.
Next Three Games: at Rams, vs. Cardinals, vs. Saints
11. Buffalo Bills (10.37)
Expected Record: 11-6 Playoff Probability: 88.6% Super Bowl Win Probability: 4.1% Offensive EVE: 2nd Defensive EVE: 25thWhat can Josh Allen do for an encore? We’ll see as the 7-3 Bills have winnable games coming up on the schedule as they try to keep pace with the AFC East-leading Patriots.
Next Three Games: at Texans, at Steelers, vs. Bengals
12. Los Angeles Chargers (10.00)
Expected Record: 10-7 Playoff Probability: 68.0% Super Bowl Win Probability: 2.4% Offensive EVE: 13th Defensive EVE: 9thThe Chargers to bounce back after they were surprisingly trounced 35-6 at Jacksonville. Justin Herbert left Sunday’s game twice after taking a big hit in the second quarter. The Week 12 bye will come at a good time for the 7-4 Chargers, giving Herbert extra time to recover.
Next Three Games: BYE, vs. Raiders, vs. Eagles, at Chiefs
13. Indianapolis Colts (9.67)
Expected Record: 11-6 Playoff Probability: 91.0% Super Bowl Win Probability: 4.4% Offensive EVE: 1st Defensive EVE: 13thThere shouldn’t be much drama about whether the Colts make the playoffs. They have the fifth-best playoff odds in the NFL at 88.3% and are still a strong AFC South favorite at 62.5%. An 8-2 start puts them in position to finish the season near the top of the standings.
Next Three Games: at Chiefs, vs. Texans, at Jaguars
14. Chicago Bears (9.35)
Expected Record: 10-7 Playoff Probability: 62.2% Super Bowl Win Probability: 2.5% Offensive EVE: 12th Defensive EVE: 30thNow all along atop the NFC North, the 7-3 Bears hope to stay hot this weekend. Will an old nemesis get in their way? Aaron Rodgers’ status is uncertain after suffering a slight break of his left wrist last weekend.
Next Three Games: vs. Steelers, at Eagles, at Packers
15. Pittsburgh Steelers (9.33)
Expected Record: 10-7 Playoff Probability: 64.7% Super Bowl Win Probability: 2.9% Offensive EVE: 22nd Defensive EVE: 21stIt could be Mason Rudolph at the helm on Sunday when the Steelers visit Soldier Field. Pittsburgh, which has gone 2-3 after a 4-1 start, might also be without starting running back Jaylen Warren.
Next Three Games: at Bears, vs. Bills, at Ravens
16. Carolina Panthers (9.27)
Expected Record: 9-8 Playoff Probability: 40.2% Super Bowl Win Probability: 1.3% Offensive EVE: 21st Defensive EVE: 24thThe Panthers have won five of their last seven games and will get a chance to prove they’re a true contender for an NFC playoff spot when they visit the 49ers on Monday night.
Next Three Games: at 49ers, vs. Rams, BYE at Saints
17. Jacksonville Jaguars (8.96)
Expected Record: 10-7 Playoff Probability: 56.3% Super Bowl Win Probability: 1.6% Offensive EVE: 26th Defensive EVE: 6thThe Jaguars have been difficult to figure out. They’ve beaten the 49ers, Chiefs and Chargers but have struggled to beat the Raiders and lost to the Davis Mills-led Texans.
Next Three Games: at Cardinals, at Titans, vs. Colts
18. Houston Texans (8.94)
Expected Record: 9-8 Playoff Probability: 45.4% Super Bowl Win Probability: 2.1% Offensive EVE: 28th Defensive EVE: 1stAfter an 0-3 start, the Texans have won five of their last seven. They’re going after their third straight win at home against the Bills on Thursday Night Football. But this is a difficult stretch.
Next Three Games: vs. Bills, at Colts, at Chiefs
19. Seattle Seahawks (8.84)
Expected Record: 11-6 Playoff Probability: 72.5% Super Bowl Win Probability: 2.4% Offensive EVE: 4th Defensive EVE: 4thSam Darnold and the Seahawks hope to rebound after falling in their NFC West showdown with the Rams. Darnold threw four interceptions – tying a career high – in the 21-19 road loss and his pickable pass rate is an alarming 7.55% since Week 7.
Next Three Games: at Titans, vs. Vikings, at Falcons
20. San Francisco 49ers (8.82)
Expected Record: 10-7 Playoff Probability: 71.7% Super Bowl Win Probability: 2.1% Offensive EVE: 14th Defensive EVE: 11thWith a healthy Run CMC and Kyle Shanahan calling the plays, nobody is ruling out the 49ers. But they’ll have a huge game with wild-card implications on Monday night when they welcome the 6-5 Panthers.
Next Three Games: vs. Panthers, at Browns, BYE, vs. Titans
21. Arizona Cardinals (8.72)
Expected Record: 6-11 Playoff Probability: 0.3% Super Bowl Win Probability:Hence then, the article about nfl power rankings how each team rates heading into week 12 was published today ( ) and is available on The Analyst ( Middle East ) The editorial team at PressBee has edited and verified it, and it may have been modified, fully republished, or quoted. You can read and follow the updates of this news or article from its original source.
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