Richard Nixon famously described Russian strategy with a quote he attributed to Lenin: “Probe with bayonets. If you encounter mush, proceed; if you encounter steel, withdraw.”
Vladimir Putin is said to “loathe” Lenin, but analysts often reach for this quote to explain his approach to Nato: he cannot afford a direct confrontation, so he constantly probes for weakness or division.
Recent US intelligence assessments say Putin may escalate his provocations. Russia’s campaign of smaller incidents – on top of regular and devastating attacks on Ukraine – seems to be getting bolder.
Researchers at the US national security thinktank Foundation for Defense of Democracies say the Kremlin is using hybrid warfare tools to test Nato’s cohesion, readiness, and political resolve.
“Cyberattacks, GPS interference, propaganda, espionage, sabotage, and military provocations allow Russia to pressure its neighbors without launching conventional attacks,” wrote Rear Admiral (Ret.) Mark Montgomery and research fellow Ivana Stradner.
“By keeping its actions below the threshold of open war, Moscow makes it harder for NATO to agree on how and when to respond.”
These are some of the most recent:
Drones in the Baltics
Late on Monday night, two Italian Eurofighter F-2000 fighter jets from the Task Force Air “Baltic Thunder III” scrambled into action after a drone entered Lithuanian airspace.
A suspected Russian military drone was recovered from the Baltic Sea off Poland’s coast on Monday (Photo by various sources / AFP via Getty Images)“The Italian crews intercepted the unmanned aircraft, neutralising it in compliance with the operational procedures established by the Alliance,” Italy’s ministry of defence said in a social media post.
It was the second time in a month: on August 14 Italian crews scrambled to intercept and shoot down a drone in Latvian airspace.
Melinda Haring, senior fellow at the Atlantic Council, told the BBC it was too early to confirm whether the drone had come from Russia, but it was likely.
“[Russia has] also fired drones into Estonia, it’s fired drones into Latvia,” she said. “So going into Lithuania recently is a big deal to the Lithuanians, but this is this is typical behaviour that we’ve seen over the last year.”
Earlier on Monday, the Polish military found a long-range Russian military drone in the sea off the Baltic coast. It was a cheap Gerbera type made of plywood and polystyrene, often used as a decoy during large-scale attacks, but Defence Minister Wladyslaw Kosiniak-Kamysz said it appeared to be a “new model”.
It came less than a week after a mass incursion of 19 similar drones launched from Belarus into Polish airspace on September 10, which the country described as an “unprecedented” direct threat and attempted to shoot out of the sky. Russia denied it had deliberately targeted the country, but Poland’s foreign minister disagreed.
“Russian drones have veered into Polish airspace before – not just drones but also cruise missiles,” he told journalists.
“When one or two drones does it, it is possible it was a technical malfunction. But there were 19 breaches and it simply defies imagination that this was accidental.”
Kosiniak-Kamysz said earlier this month “provocations from Russia … pose a threat in places that have so far been considered safe”.
Flares off Denmark
Also on Monday, a Russian frigate fired two flares towards a Danish military helicopter sent to photograph it in international waters off Denmark , with one narrowly missing the aircraft, the Danish military said, according to Reuters news agency.
Defence Minister Jeppe Bruus said no warning or radio contact was given before the firing of the flares, which came within “a matter of metres” of the Fennec military helicopter.
Russia’s ambassador to Denmark, Vladimir Barbin, accused Danish military helicopters of carrying out multiple “dangerous manoeuvres” near Russian warships in international waters.
Danish PM Mette Frederiksen said on social media: ”Reckless action from Russia towards Danish military during a routine overflight yesterday. Russian actions are meant to intimidate and divide. They will not succeed. We will not waver.”
Passenger trains near Poland
On Sunday morning, a Ukrainian railway train was hit by a jet-propelled mesh drone while sitting at the station in Yahodyn, just a couple of miles from the country’s western border with Poland.
The drone had been detected en route and the train evacuated 15 minutes before it was hit.
Ukraine’s railway authority said it was “quite likely” that the drone’s target had been a diplomatic train that had left the station for Poland shortly before the attack, ahead of schedule. That train’s passengers included security advisers of several EU member states, and former European leaders including Boris Johnson. Former CIA chief David Petraeus was on another train that was at the Yahodyn station at the time of the attack.
Johnson said “I don’t know what warped logic drove Putin” to attack the train.
A train carriage was damaged by a drone strike near the border with Poland on the weekend (Photo by Handout / Ukrainian State Emergency Service / AFP via Getty Images)Estonia’s Foreign Minister Margus Tsahkna said his team had been “stuck at this very border crossing, unable to leave Ukraine because of the Russian drone threat”.
“Russia’s attacks are becoming more intense and moving ever closer to Nato and the EU. Our response must intensify too,” he said.
Ukraine’s Minister of Foreign Affairs Andrii Sybiha said Putin was “knocking directly on the doors of the EU and Nato” and urged “uncompromising” sanctions in response.
Drones over Romania
Last Tuesday, 8 September, four counties in north-east Romania were put on high alert after a Russian jet drone entered the country’s airspace.
The drone was initially detected by Ukrainian radar, but flew over the country, into Moldova and over Chisinau, then into Romania, a member of Nato and the European Union.
Two Spanish F-18 aircraft, serving as Reinforced Air Police at Romania’s Mihail Kogălniceanu Air Base 57, took off to intercept the drone as it flew deeper into the country.
The drone then abruptly changed course, flew back over the Moldovan border and crashed shortly afterwards.
The Atlantic Council’s Melinda Haring said Russia has fired drones 40 times into Romania.
Sabotage in Germany
Germany’s military counter-intelligence agency, known as MAD, issued its annual report on Monday warning Germany is a “prioritised target of Russian espionage activities.”
“The hybrid threat situation in Germany has continued to deteriorate,” MAD said. “These include cyberattacks, drone attacks, attempts at political influence, and disruptive attacks targeting transport, energy facilities and telecommunications.”
It said the potential threat of sabotage by “low-level” agents had increased significantly.
Police deployed an explosive-disarming robot at Leipzig/Halle Airport in Germany after a drone was found nearby (Photo: Axel Schmidt/File Photo)On September 1, EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen spoke with Germany’s Chancellor Merz to discuss the hybrid attack at Leipzig Airport the previous month.
Three drones packed with explosives were found near the airport, including one close to a Ukrainian Antonov plane used to transport munitions.
She said afterwards: “the EU stands in full solidarity with Germany in the face of this attack by Russia. We will keep the EU united despite these escalating and serious acts”.
“Russia is seeking to sow distrust and fear among our societies. But it will fail. And we will stand by Ukraine for as long as it takes.”
Hence then, the article about all the ways russia has provoked nato this month from flares to drones was published today ( ) and is available on inews ( Middle East ) The editorial team at PressBee has edited and verified it, and it may have been modified, fully republished, or quoted. You can read and follow the updates of this news or article from its original source.
Read More Details
Finally We wish PressBee provided you with enough information of ( All the ways Russia has provoked Nato this month – from flares to drones )
Also on site :