We look ahead to Sunday’s Premier League clash at Emirates Stadium with our Arsenal vs Manchester City prediction and preview. Mikel Arteta is aiming for a third straight home win over his old friend Pep Guardiola.
Arsenal vs Manchester City: The Key Stats
Arsenal have won their last two home league meetings with Manchester City, and the Opta supercomputer gives them a 52.2% chance of making it three in a row. Erling Haaland has scored four goals in six Premier League appearances against Arsenal, while he has 19 goals in 20 league games in London. City have lost five of their last seven Premier League games immediately following a European game in midweek (W2), including a 5-1 loss at Arsenal in February.Arsenal have won their last three Premier League home games by an aggregate score of 9-0. Two of those have come this season. A 5-0 thrashing of Leeds United was followed by the Gunners dispatching Ange Postecoglou’s Nottingham Forest 3-0 last week.
They have won three of their four Premier League matches this season, keeping a clean sheet in each one of those victories. And after a 2-0 defeat of Athletic Club in the UEFA Champions League on Tuesday, the only fixture in which Mikel Arteta’s team have conceded in all competitions in 2025-26 was in the 1-0 loss to Liverpool at Anfield. Even then, it took a stunning free-kick from Dominik Szoboszlai to get the better of David Raya.
The Gunners, then, are in mean form defensively. In fact, only Newcastle United (2.1) have conceded fewer expected goals than Arsenal (2.4) in the division this season.
Arsenal are hunting a fourth straight home league win without conceding since December 2021, while they last won their first three at home in a season without conceding in 1960-61. Up next, it is the might of Manchester City, as Pep Guardiola brings his superstars to Emirates Stadium on Sunday.
After dispatching a sorry Wolves side 4-0 in their opening fixture, City went on to lose their next two matches versus Tottenham and Brighton.
It marked the first time City had lost two of their first three games since the 2004-05 campaign, while it was the fewest points Guardiola had ever collected in his first three league matches of a season.
City put the record straight with a 3-0 hammering of rivals Manchester United in last week’s derby, with Erling Haaland taking a starring role with a second-half double.
Guardiola’s team followed that up with a 2-0 victory over 10-man Napoli in the Champions League, with Haaland and Jérémy Doku on target after Giovanni Di Lorenzo’s red card.
A worry for City, though, on top of the fact that Arsenal have had an extra 48 hours of rest, is that they have lost five of their last seven Premier League games immediately following a European game in midweek (W2), including a 5-1 loss at Arsenal in February. Their previous five such defeats came over a period of 46 games in five years (W27 D14).
While Arsenal have been defensively resilient, they are going up against the team that leads the Premier League for expected goals this season, with City netting eight times from 8.5 xG. Arsenal rank fifth, with 6.5 xG.
Star striker Haaland has led City’s charge. He is the league’s leading scorer, with five goals, while he has also had the most shots (19) and shots on target (eight).
Haaland has scored four goals in six Premier League appearances against Arsenal, while he has 19 goals in 20 league games in London. Among players to play 1,000+ minutes in away Premier League games in the capital, Haaland has the best minutes-per-goal ratio (one every 93 minutes).
Haaland’s goal on Tuesday against Napoli, a looping header from Phil Foden’s delicate assist, saw him reach 50 Champions League goals in just 49 appearances in the competition. That is the fewest games ever required to reach a half-century of goals in the competition, with Ruud van Nistelrooy previously holding the record, with 50 goals in 62 matches.
At the other end, Viktor Gyökeres will be aiming to keep pace with Haaland in the scoring charts. The Sweden international already has three Premier League goals to his name, and he has been clinical with the chances that have come his way.
Gyökeres has had only seven shots, getting three of those on target. The Arsenal forward has the league’s third-highest xG total (2.1).
Of the players to score at least two Premier League goals this term, Gyökeres has the fifth-best shot conversion rate (42.9%). Haaland ranks 14th with 26.3%.
The Swedish striker will be aiming to get the better of new City goalkeeper Gianluigi Donnarumma. He made two saves and kept a clean sheet on his Premier League debut in the Manchester derby. The only shot-stoppers to record a clean sheet in their first two starts for the Citizens are Kasper Schmeichel (August 2007) and Stefan Ortega (May 2023).
Arsenal vs Manchester City Head-to-Head
With Man City winless in four Premier League games against Arsenal, Guardiola could go five games without a top-flight league win against an opponent for the very first time.
Arteta could also become the first manager ever to go five league games unbeaten against Guardiola.
City have lost both of their last two league visits to Arsenal, as many as in their previous 14 beforehand (W7 D5 L2). It is their longest losing run away to the Gunners since April 2009 (4 in a row).
Arsenal have won two of their last four league meetings with City (D2), as many as their previous 22 beforehand (D5 L15). The Gunners could win back-to-back league games against the Citizens for the first time since December 2015.
Arsenal vs Manchester City Prediction
Even with Arsenal’s great recent record against Man City at the Emirates, it is somewhat surprising to see just how much the Opta supercomputer fancies the Gunners here.
Arsenal came out on top in 52.2% of the model’s simulations, while City have a win probability of 23.4%, which is slightly lower than the 24.4% chance of a draw.
Arsenal vs Manchester City Predicted Lineups
Arsenal: David Raya, Jurriën Timber, William Saliba, Gabriel Magalhães, Riccardo Calafiori, Mikel Merino, Martín Zubimendi, Declan Rice, Noni Madueke, Eberechi Eze, Viktor Gyökeres.
Manager: Mikel Arteta
Manchester City: Gianluigi Donnarumma, Abdukodir Khusanov, Rúben Dias, Josko Gvardiol, Nico O’Reilly, Rodri, Bernardo Silva, Tijjani Reijnders, Phil Foden, Jérémy Doku, Erling Haaland.
Manager: Pep Guardiola
Opta Power Rankings
The Opta Power Rankings are a global team ranking system. They assign an ability score to over 10,000 domestic football teams. This score is on a scale between zero and 100, where zero is the worst-ranked team in the world and 100 is the best team in the world.
Ahead of kick-off on Sunday in north London, here is the Opta Power Ranking for both sides.
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Arsenal vs Manchester City Prediction: Arteta Gunning for Third Straight Home Win Over Guardiola Opta Analyst.
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