It's tough to say how the Fed is evaluating these data points because so much is happening so quickly.
Add it all up and economists are forecasting both headline and core CPI up 0.3% m/m. The y/y readings are expected at +2.4% and +2.8%, respectively.
I'd expect some dollar volatility on the release and I can see Fed implied probabilities bouncing around. Currently we're 40% priced for a July 30 rate cut and there are 81 bps priced in for the year ahead.
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