April non-farm payrolls preview by the numbers: Any signs of layoffs? ...Middle East

Consensus estimate +130K Estimate range +25K to +195KMarch was +228K Private consensus +125K versus +209K priorUnemployment rate consensus estimate 4.1519% Prior unrounded unemployment rate 4.1396%Prior participation rate 62.5%Prior underemployment U6 7.9% Avg hourly earnings y/y exp +3.9% versus +3.8% priorAvg hourly earnings m/m exp +0.3% versus +0.3% priorAvg weekly hours exp 34.2 versus 34.2 prior

ADP report +62K versus +147K prior (lowest in almost 2 years)ISM services employment not yet releasedISM manufacturing employment 46.5 vs 44.7 priorChallenger job cuts 105.44k vs 275.2k prior Philly employment +0.2 vs +19.7 priorEmpire employment -2.6 vs -4.1 prior Initial jobless claims survey week 216K vs 225K prior

Seasonals from BMO:

In April, the headline beat 57% of the time and missed 43% of the timeOn unemployment, the rate has been lower than expected 42% of the time, higher 39% of the time and in line 19% of the time

I'd note that the recent US dollar outperformance is based on the idea that tariffs won't hit as hard and the Fed won't need to rush into cuts. That's a dangerous assumption ahead of a jobs report.

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

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