Numbers released so far this month:
ADP report +62K versus +147K prior (lowest in almost 2 years)ISM services employment not yet releasedISM manufacturing employment 46.5 vs 44.7 priorChallenger job cuts 105.44k vs 275.2k prior Philly employment +0.2 vs +19.7 priorEmpire employment -2.6 vs -4.1 prior Initial jobless claims survey week 216K vs 225K priorSeasonals from BMO:
ADP looms large ahead of the report and the recent JOLTS number was soft but the initial jobless claims numbers lately haven't shown any sign of layoffs, including today's number which was skewed by New York teachers.
I'd note that the recent US dollar outperformance is based on the idea that tariffs won't hit as hard and the Fed won't need to rush into cuts. That's a dangerous assumption ahead of a jobs report.
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