Support for Nigel Farage’s party has slowly but surely been rising ever since it won 15 per cent in July’s general election. But the increase in its popularity has been particularly marked – up four points – since the turn of the year.
As in the general election, Reform are securing rich pickings from the Conservatives. On average in the polls 21 per cent of those who voted Conservative in July have now switched to Farage’s party.
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Read MoreHowever, Reform are far from the only thorn in Labour’s side. The Government is losing support in all directions – to the Conservatives (5 per cent), the Liberal Democrats (9 per cent) and the Greens (5 per cent) as well as Reform.
Second, Reform voters are deeply critical of the ability of either the Government or the Opposition to handle the challenges facing Britain.
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Read MoreReform supporters are more critical than Conservative supporters of the current Government and more critical than Labour supporters of the Opposition. Voters turfed the Conservatives out in July primarily because of their record on these issues – and have seen little reason to change their minds since. Some, meanwhile, turned in the election to Labour – often without much enthusiasm – in the hope they could turn things around.
Meanwhile, Nigel Farage has a unique ability to articulate the pessimism and despair many voters feel about the state of their country. That ability is proving a powerful magnet for his party. The challenge he now faces is whether, this third time around, he can sustain and progress his challenge to the traditional political order.
John Curtice is professor of politics at the University of Strathclyde and senior fellow at the National Centre for Social Research and The UK in a Changing Europe
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