What’s really going on with Reform leading the polls ...Middle East

Reform’s bandwagon is undoubtedly gathering speed. On average the last half dozen polls have put the party on 25 per cent, putting it equal first with Labour. Three of those polls, including a widely publicised poll from YouGov, put the party in the lead, either solely or in tandem with Labour.

Support for Nigel Farage’s party has slowly but surely been rising ever since it won 15 per cent in July’s general election. But the increase in its popularity has been particularly marked – up four points – since the turn of the year.

Meanwhile, the Conservatives find themselves languishing with an average tally of 23 per cent. All but one of the recent polls put Kemi Badenoch’s party in third place.

As in the general election, Reform are securing rich pickings from the Conservatives. On average in the polls 21 per cent of those who voted Conservative in July have now switched to Farage’s party.

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But in contrast to the general election, Reform are now also taking support away from Labour. Eight per cent of those who voted for Keir Starmer’s party in the general election now back Reform. Some polls also suggest that Reform are polling well among those who stayed at home in the election.

However, Reform are far from the only thorn in Labour’s side. The Government is losing support in all directions – to the Conservatives (5 per cent), the Liberal Democrats (9 per cent) and the Greens (5 per cent) as well as Reform.

Disenchantment with Labour is, it seems, spread across the political spectrum.True, this is not the first time Farage has posed a threat to Britain’s traditional parties. But his current incarnation as leader of Reform is proving his most successful challenge yet. Ukip never ran at much more than 18 per cent in the polls in the run-up to the 2015 general election. And while the Brexit Party came first in the European Parliament election in May 2019, even then the party’s average Westminster rating only reached 22 per cent.Those backing Reform have two defining characteristics. First, they are mostly Brexiteers. Indeed, with 43 per cent of those who voted Leave in 2016 now backing Reform, the party is well ahead among those who voted Leave. To that extent, Farage is fishing in familiar waters – and although support for being outside the EU is lower than it was, it is, at 43 per cent, still sufficient to provide a substantial foundation for Reform’s insurgency.

Second, Reform voters are deeply critical of the ability of either the Government or the Opposition to handle the challenges facing Britain.

According to the polls, the top two issues in voters’ minds are, as in the general election, the cost of living/economy and the NHS. On the economy, Survation report that Reform voters give the current Government a competence rating of -72, while Badenoch’s score is -16. On the NHS, the equivalent figures are -68 and -33 respectively. And on immigration, a particular concern of Reform supporters, the numbers are -82 and -35.

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Reform supporters are more critical than Conservative supporters of the current Government and more critical than Labour supporters of the Opposition. Voters turfed the Conservatives out in July primarily because of their record on these issues – and have seen little reason to change their minds since. Some, meanwhile, turned in the election to Labour – often without much enthusiasm – in the hope they could turn things around.

Yet in practice voters have witnessed an economy that has continued to flatline and a Government that is seemingly increasingly desperate to find the elusive levers of growth. At the same time, there is little sign yet that Labour’s attempts to reduce NHS waiting lists have had much effect.

Meanwhile, Nigel Farage has a unique ability to articulate the pessimism and despair many voters feel about the state of their country. That ability is proving a powerful magnet for his party. The challenge he now faces is whether, this third time around, he can sustain and progress his challenge to the traditional political order.

John Curtice is professor of politics at the University of Strathclyde and senior fellow at the National Centre for Social Research and The UK in a Changing Europe

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