Betting against a U.S.-China decoupling requires increasingly long-shot optimism. Looking at the relationship from the U.S. side, such optimism is hard to justify. Looking at the relationship from the Chinese side, there is only marginally more room for it. And even as pessimism mounts bilaterally, China’s economic prospects are dimming. The relationship between the U.S. and China has changed rapidly over the last half-century. For most of this period, the prevailing interpretation was constructive engagement: America benefitted from this relationship geopolitically and economically by bringing China into the Western system. No more. More recently a reappraisal questioning America
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