REPORT: Cubs “Badly Want” Tarik Skubal, Whose Timeline and Cost is Coming into Focus ...Middle East

Earlier this morning, news dropped that the Chicago Cubs have declined Colin Rea’s $7.5 million club option for 2027. And that matters for two reasons: (1) Suddenly, the Cubs have just a little bit more money to spend this offseason (Rea’s salary was a drop in the bucket relatively speaking, but not a totally meaningless amount), and (2) that’s one more rotation spot to fill. Hopefully, with Tarik Skubal. But hold that thought for just a minute.

As a reminder, compared to the 2026 staff, the 2027 Chicago Cubs rotation will be losing Clay Holmes, Kevin Gausman, David Peterson, Matthew Boyd, Shota Imanaga, and now Colin Rea. Likewise, Cade Horton will be out until AT LEAST August, while both Justin Steele and Ben Brown are giant question marks. The former hasn’t pitched in the big leagues in almost two full seasons. The latter may not be able to manage his chronic neck issue while pitching out of the rotation.

So that leaves Edward Cabrera, who struggled and was hurt all season long, and Javier Assad, whom the Cubs do not ever seem eager to start with any consistency. Perhaps the recently acquired Braxton Garrett will play a role at some point as well. But that’s largely beside the point.

So what is the point? No matter how optimistic you are, the 2027 Chicago Cubs have dramatic rotation needs, both in terms of volume and impact. And according to Jeff Passan of ESPN, they have one big idea of how to get things rolling.

Cubs “Badly Want” Tarik Skubal

There’s a heavy dose of brake-pumping in here, but it’s hard to ignore the money quote, given who’s saying it (bolded emphasis mine):

Jeff Passan: Skubal is far and away the best player in this class….The two most obvious suitors are the two teams with the highest payrolls in baseball: The Los Angeles Dodgers and New York Mets. There are bound to be others. The Chicago Cubs badly want Skubal. They also are skeptical that they will be willing to compete at the sort of dollars Skubal is expected to get — well in excess of $300 million, potentially in the $400 million-plus range….the San Diego Padres (also) need a rotation anchor, and arguably the best pitcher in baseball would more than suffice.

I think it’s fair to say that Jeff Passan is one of the two most trustworthy reporters in this industry. If he says the Cubs “badly want” Tarik Skubal, then I believe they badly want Tarik Skubal. And while your instinctual response might be something like … “Sure, who doesn’t want Tarik Skubal?” I don’t think that’s the correct reaction here. Or rather, I don’t think that’s the intent behind Passan’s message.

Passan doesn’t usually just mention teams and free agents that make some sense by connecting his own dots (which is, to be fair, an occasionally useful thing to do). No, to me, this is our first hard reporting that the Cubs’ interest in Tarik Skubal is real.

With that said, Ken Rosenthal disagrees: “Do I expect (the Cubs) to play on Skubal? Mmm. I don’t.” But if they do, what’s the timeline and potential cost? We finally have some idea.

Tarik Skubal’s Asking Price and Timeline

According to Passan, the “expectation” is that Tarik Skubal will sign BEFORE the lockout begins on December 1. That is less than one month from now, which really ramps up the urgency of this reporting. But naturally, Rosenthal again provides the slightest bit of pushback, wondering if Scott Boras might want to see if the Angels, under new ownership, want to get involved, which would happen only after the lockout, when the new owners are officially approved.

As for the cost, it’s right where you’d expect it to be. Jeff Passan says Skubal is expected to get “well in excess of $300 million, potentially in the $400 million-plus range.”

Meanwhile, FanGraphs did their contract projections, with Ben Clemens offering his expert opinion alongside the median and average crowdsourced options. Those played out like this:

Given Skubal’s relative youth (29), high-level success (top-2 pitcher in MLB?), and agent (Scott Boras), one thing is clear: He’s going to get the largest free agent contract ever handed out to a pitcher. So that means beating Yoshinobu Yamamoto’s 12-year, $325 million deal.

Skubal will not get a deal of that length, but eight years and $326 million are sure starting to feel like the absolute floor(s). The Cubs, of course, have never topped even $200 million in any deal, let alone for a pitcher, so in that sense, the resistance from Rosenthal and the brake-pumping from Passan make plenty of sense. If you EXPECT the Cubs to come out on top in the Skubal sweepstakes, you will more than likely be disappointed.

At the same time, this does feel like one of those extremely limited markets, so I would not count the Cubs out entirely. Especially because, as we’ve discussed, the 2027 Cubs arguably need Tarik Skubal more than any other team out there.

Tarik Skubal’s Fit with the Cubs

We’ve discussed this before, but here are a few of my general thoughts on the matter.

First, as we’ve established, the Cubs need impact starting pitching more than arguably any reasonably projected 2027 contender. Second, Skubal is entering just his age-30 season, making a gigantic free agent deal just a little bit more palatable.

Third, the Cubs, under Jed Hoyer, seem to prioritize left-handed starters more often than righties. We suspect it may have something to do with Wrigley Field, but whatever the reason, that sure seems to be a consistent preference. Fourth, Skubal’s high-velo and strikeout profile is exactly what the Cubs have been attempting to acquire (and develop … LOL) for a long time. Obviously, they’d be happy with any starting pitcher whose results are as good as Skubal’s, but the way Skubal achieves his results is very much a target profile for the front office right now.

And lastly, but more generally, this Cubs team still projects to contend in 2027. And seeing as they have a legitimate superstar (PCA) in his prime and another star player (Alex Bregman) aging another step closer to his eventual falloff, there may never be a better time or opportunity for their first massive free agent deal.

Throw in the five years of labor peace that will follow whatever new deal is struck AND all of the money coming off the books this winter, and I really struggle to paint better circumstances for Tom Ricketts to go all in on any free agent. Like, what else would it take? For the player to be only 26? That very rarely happens.

Again, I can’t be clear enough that this Cubs ownership has not once given us a reason to believe they’d actually go to these heights for any free agent, let alone a pitcher whose risk profile is always going to be higher than a position player’s. But they “badly want” him. They need him as much as anybody. His profile fits their goals PERFECTLY. He’s friends with Alex Bregman. And an organization cannot refuse to build around a superstar like PCA.

So, with apologies, I am going to be tracking every single Tarik Skubal rumor closely this offseason, especially these next few weeks, as the expectation of a pre-lockout signing (and the Cubs interest) remains.

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