By Zachary Cohen, Jim Sciutto, Tal Shalev, CNN
(CNN) — US forces in the Middle East are prepared to launch new, potentially major, military operations against Iran “within 96 hours of receiving” an order from President Donald Trump, according to two US officials.
Sufficient forces are now deployed in the region to carry out the potential attacks, the sources said. The scope of new US military operations would likely go beyond efforts to simply “mow the lawn” or maintain the status quo by striking radars, launchers and other Iranian assets that can be quickly reconstituted — as has been the case since Trump halted full combat operations earlier this year, the sources added.
“It will be a big effort,” one of the officials told CNN. That view has been echoed by other current and former US officials familiar with internal military planning discussions — some of whom say it is a question of when, not if, Trump will issue a go-order. They believe it could come any time before the end of the year, though most likely after the US midterm elections.
US officials acknowledge challenges, cite potential threat
Iranian forces are now more familiar with US tactics, and it would therefore be harder for the American military to effectively destroy all potential intended targets. However, leaders in US Central Command and the Pentagon have been developing a wide-ranging target list, which includes Iranian energy infrastructure, military sites and nuclear facilities.
Officials say that Trump has not made up his mind on what he will do after the midterms but that he appears to be leaning toward ordering major action. But officials also caution that Trump has appeared in the past to lean toward certain actions only to back off at the last moment.
The White House declined to comment.
A senior Pentagon official told CNN in a statement, “The Department is a planning organization, and its job is to develop and execute military options ordered by the President.”
Recent US intelligence assessments indicate Iran and Houthi rebels are taking the possibility of renewed attacks by the US and potentially Israel very seriously, according to two additional sources familiar with the matter.
If the US and Israel launch new military operations against Iran, Tehran and the Houthis would likely retaliate immediately by targeting American personnel and facilities around the region — and potentially beyond, the sources familiar with those recent US intelligence assessments said.
An unclassified October 23 memo from Director of National Intelligence Jay Clayton to Secretary of State Marco Rubio says US intelligence has found that “Iran has substantially increased efforts to target US personnel” and plotting efforts “have reached advanced stages in both the Middle East and certain other countries,” CNN previously reported.
US intelligence officials believe Iran and the Houthis are unlikely to carry out preemptive escalatory attacks against American personnel or Israel at this point but would not hesitate to respond if Iran is targeted first by US or Israeli forces, one of the sources familiar with the latest American intelligence assessments noted.
But the regional threat posed by Iran and the Houthis is one reason why the US is expected to continue quietly pulling personnel from its embassies across the Middle East in the coming days, the source said.
While the US Embassy in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, is the only American diplomatic facility in the region under ordered departure, one of the sources told CNN that others are expected to receive similar directives and those that do not will be scaled down under a personnel cap.
Additionally, nonessential US military personnel who were expected to deploy to the Middle East as part of the next troop rotation have been told they are no longer being sent, according to a US official, underscoring the possibility of looming regional escalation.
Adm. Brad Cooper, the CENTCOM commander, visited the Strait of Hormuz on Sunday as the US military maintains its blockade on Iranian ports and assists shipping traffic through the critical waterway.
Cooper “observed the current operational environment” while flying over the strait in a helicopter, CENTCOM said, adding that he met with service members who cleared the waterway of Iranian mines.
“We continue to stand shoulder to shoulder with our Gulf partners and the shipping industry,” Cooper said in a news release. “This visit underscores our strong commitment to continued freedom of navigation through the Strait of Hormuz.”
Despite the increase in tankers transiting the strait, oil prices remain high, partly due to the threat of possible Iranian attacks. One US official acknowledged the status quo around the strait is “untenable” for the long term, and barring a last-minute diplomatic breakthrough, is one reason Trump may turn to military action — despite questions about whether the White House has a broader strategy for ending the conflict.
Israel pushing for more strikes
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has been pushing to carry out new attacks against Iran, but US officials have requested he delay until the Trump administration is ready to conduct joint operations, according to two US officials and an Israeli security source.
“Netanyahu really wanted and tried to convince Trump for a joint attack in Iran before the elections, and Trump did not give a green light,” the Israeli security source told CNN.
One reason Trump declined is because Israel Defense Forces chief of staff Eyal Zamir told US Gen. Dan Caine, chairman of the Joint Chiefs, that it would harm the elections in Israel and lead to their postponement, the Israeli security source added.
Israel was preparing for the possibility of launching additional attacks against Iran in the last week or so and had been lobbying US officials to support and complement those new strikes, a third source briefed on the matter told CNN. But senior US officials — including Trump — told Israel to hold off, instead signaling the two countries would launch joint operations soon.
Israel appears to have delayed plans in the immediate term for additional strikes but is building up for potential joint operations with the US — likely after the American midterm elections, all of the sources said.
Israel seemed to agree to delaying new strikes on Iran in part because it needs US support for missile defense, the source briefed on the matter added. Iran and the Houthis would likely retaliate against an attack and Israel’s defensive munitions have been strained during the war.
Recent US intelligence assessments indicate that Netanyahu and his allies still lack a clear strategic objective beyond demonstrating some sort of “progress” and continuing to degrade the Iranian regime, one of the sources familiar with the reports added.
Netanyahu said this week in a speech at an IDF graduation ceremony that his directive to the IDF, the Mossad and other security branches is to topple the regime in Iran.
“The plans are ready, waiting for Trump’s approval, could be after the midterms,” the same source told CNN.
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CNN’s Kevin Liptak contributed to this report.
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