Teoscar Hernandez’s shaky 2023 season with the Mariners didn’t establish much of a platform as the outfielder entered free agency for the first time, and the result was one-year, $23.5MM deal with the Dodgers. Hernandez chose the shorter-term contract over some lengthier offers with the intent of hitting well in 2024 and putting him in better position to command a more lucrative long-term pact.
The plan worked, as Hernandez hit .272/.339/.501 with 33 homers over 652 plate appearances. He earned an All-Star nod, Silver Slugger honors, and (most importantly for Hernandez) his first championship ring as Los Angeles captured the 2024 World Series. As one might expect, Hernandez’s first choice was to remain in Dodger Blue, and that ended up being the case when L.A. re-signed him to a three-year, $66MM guarantee. The contract also carries a $15MM club option for 2028 ($6.5MM buyout), and a conditional $15MM club option for 2029 if Hernandez spends 75 days on the injured list due to a surgery for a specific injury.
The Dodgers won another World Series in 2025 with Hernandez putting up decent numbers during that postseason run. Overall, however, the first two years of Hernandez’s contract have looked a lot more like his 2023 than his 2024. Since Opening Day 2025, Hernandez has hit .256/.308/.441 with 41 homers over 1037 PA, translating to a 105 wRC+. The 2026 campaign saw Hernandez increase his batting average and walk rate from 2025 (though his 8.6BB% was still below league average), but his power diminished.
Digging further into Hernandez’s 2026 production, he was hitting pretty well before a hamstring strain sidelined him from the end of May to the end of June. Upon returning from the injured list, Hernandez went into a protracted slump for the next two months before re-adopting his old batting stance, which seemed to get him back on track. Hernandez posted a 1.015 OPS over his final 104 PA of the regular season before cooling off in the playoffs.
While the Dodgers would surely prefer more than a 110 wRC+ from a player making Hernandez’s salary, that’s still a decent level of production for a player entering his age-34 season. So, why exactly is Hernandez a trade candidate, and perhaps the L.A. regular most likely to be playing elsewhere in 2027?
The easy answer: Josue De Paula. The star prospect made his MLB debut this season and showed some glimpses of his potential by posting a 1.081 OPS in his first 41 plate appearances, and he walked twice in three pinch-hit PA during the postseason. The Dodgers thought enough of De Paula that he was called up to the majors straight from Double-A, so while he could start 2027 with Triple-A Oklahoma City, it doesn’t appear as though De Paula has much left to prove against minor league pitching.
Evaluators are mixed at best on De Paula’s defensive skills in the outfield, so he might end up as a designated hitter down the road. With Shohei Ohtani locked into the Dodgers’ DH spot and Kyle Tucker in right field, that leaves just left field as De Paula’s natural landing spot for an extended look in the Show. A platoon between the left-handed hitting De Paula and the righty-swinging Hernandez could work, though even for a stacked Los Angeles roster, that doesn’t seem like the most efficient use of resources.
Between Ohtani, Tucker, Mookie Betts, Freddie Freeman, Will Smith, Andy Pages, and Max Muncy, most of the Dodgers’ everyday lineup is already set. Second base is a little less certain but Tommy Edman (who is signed through at least 2029) is the favorite for playing time at the keystone, plus Hyeseong Kim and Alex Freeland are on hand. Muncy is entering the final guaranteed year of his contract and could also be viewed as a trade candiadate, but he has a longer history with the organization than Hernandez.
As well, the Dodgers don’t have a ready-made third base replacement for Muncy in the way that De Paula or several other top outfield prospects are knocking on the door for big league playing time. This wealth of prospect depth makes it fairly unlikely that Hernandez’s 2028 option will be exercised, so Los Angeles could look to address other needs by trading Hernandez this winter. It’s worth noting that there was some buzz around a Hernandez trade last offseason, though at the time, GM Brandon Gomes and manager Dave Roberts downplayed the seriousness of that speculation.
Now a veteran of 11 MLB seasons, Hernandez’s game is pretty well established. He brings a lot of strikeouts and doesn’t walk much, and he’s a subpar defender in both corner outfield slots despite a good throwing arm. On the plus side, Hernandez is still making plenty of hard contact with solid barrel rates, and it could be that his decreased power this season was an offshoot from his stance change and maybe the lingering impact of his hamstring strain. Playing for a team without a set DH could benefit Hernandez, as he could get some more partial rest days as the designated hitter.
Salary-wise, Hernandez is earning $14.5MM in 2027, with $8MM of that money deferred until at least 2031. Between that $6.5MM and the $6.5MM buyout of the 2028 club option, that puts a $13MM price tag on Hernandez for next season. If he was a free agent this winter, a one-year, $13MM contract is a pretty reasonable result for a 34-year-old, DH-leaning veteran bat coming off a 110 wRC+ season, so that Dodgers probably wouldn’t have to eat any salary to accommodate a trade. Not that payroll is exactly a concern for the big-spending Dodgers, but getting Hernandez’s contract off the books does allow a big of spending relief, or frees up more money Los Angeles can spend elsewhere.
The $13MM cost is reasonable enough that even lower-payroll teams could get involved in trade talks. Trading for Hernandez is an interesting option for clubs who either aren’t enamored with the free agent outfield market, or who aren’t willing to meet the asking prices of such bigger names as Randy Arozarena, Seiya Suzuki, or Teruaki Sato.
The Mariners are a fit on paper, but might not be keen on a reunion in the wake of Hernandez’s 2023 campaign. The Padres, Giants, or Diamondbacks need outfield help but probably aren’t likely to be matching up with their chief NL West rival in trade talks. Beyond this group, the Braves, Phillies, Guardians, Blue Jays, Orioles, Royals (who were linked to Hernandez last winter), White Sox, Twins, Astros, Rangers, Reds, and Cubs are clubs that could all be in need of corner outfield and/or DH production this offseason, plus more teams could suddenly develop a vacancy at those positions as the winter market develops.
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