It is a clear advantage to get to host your Wild Card Series. It is an overwhelming advantage not to even have to play in the Wild Card Series. Clubs love to have a dead-bang ace or two at the front of their playoff rotation. Others can rely on an elite bullpen to eat half the game. Some teams enter the postseason with perfect health, and have a path laid out before them with cold opponents and ideal match-ups.
None of that speaks to the 2026 Chicago Cubs.
The Cubs have to head out West tonight to play the hottest team in baseball in their house. The Cubs have to cobble together a rotation, and pray that a week or two of decent back-end bullpen performances are sufficient to lock that group in. The injuries remain numerous, including among some key guys who are expected to play. No one would look at this situation on paper and say the Cubs are even in the general neighborhood of a playoff favorite.
But you never know.
Good luck predicting the precise outcome of an individual pitch, much less an entire game. Sometimes, the 53/47 nature of baseball frustrates the hell out of us, knowing that the Cubs “deserved” to win a particular game, but the fickle and flukey baseball gods took it away for no other reason than their devoted service to randomness. But other times, that ball bounces in their favor. Sometimes, the Cubs are able to score off of THE Mason Miller because an infield dribbler inexplicably stays – and is called – fair.
To borrow the cliche: that’s why they play the games. The Cubs can win this series in San Diego. The Cubs can win a series after that, another after that, and a final one after that. There’s nothing in the laws of physics that says it is impermissible for the unlikely to occur. We see unlikely things in baseball every day.
You get yourself into the postseason, and you go from there. We say it every year in March – crapshoots and whatnot – and there’s no reason to disavow it now that we’re on the doorstep of October. The Cubs got themselves into the dance, and now we see what shakes loose. This is a good baseball team, even if they aren’t going to be a favorite in any series from here.
Maybe a few of those random bounces will fall in their favor this week. You never know.
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