Mizzou Crystal Ball: Predicting every game for the Tigers in 2026 ...Middle East

The Missouri Tigers have become a consistently decent SEC program under coach Eli Drinkwitz.

Since 2017, the Tigers have won at least 6 games every year except the COVID year in 2020, in which they went 5-5. Yet, some of the national analysis around the SEC this year seems to be “someone needs to take a step back, so I’m picking Missouri to go (insert 5-7 or 4-8).”

That’s lazy.

Sure, the Tigers could end up dipping below .500 this year, but too many analysts have a misguided perception of what Mizzou is.

Here’s the part where I tell you I’m a Missouri graduate, in case that wasn’t obvious. Yes, I’m defensive of my alma mater. But I’m not looking at this season through Tiger-striped glasses.

Will the Tigers win 4 or 5 games? I’d be shocked if they only won 4 games. Could they win 9? I don’t think so. It’s going to be somewhere in the middle.

Let’s talk about Mizzou today, but first… check out the Crystal Ball articles we’ve done thus far:

Now, let’s see what could be in store for the Missouri Tigers in 2026.

One Big Question: Can the defense hold up?

There’s no sugarcoating this. Losing Damon Wilson II to Miami sucks. He was amazing for the Mizzou defense last year, racking up a team-high 9 sacks.

Darris Smith is going to have to step up in a big way as the lead edge rusher to keep this Mizzou defense humming. The secondary is full of transfer players, so the Tigers are going to need to pressure the opposing QB early and often.

In 2025, the Tigers finished fifth in the SEC with 36 sacks. It’ll be tough to repeat that performance without guys like Smith and Langden Kitchen stepping up.

The offense is going to put up points. I’m confident in QB Austin Simmons, the 2-headed running back tandem of Ahmad Hardy and Jamal Roberts and the receiving corps. The offensive line has a couple of studs.

But the defense could take a step back this fall. How much of a step back will determine the ceiling for the Tigers in 2026.

Mizzou Projected Wins Total

Here’s what Kalshi has to say about Mizzou’s win total in 2026:

Want to get in on the fun for football season? Check out where Kalshi is legal.

Game-by-Game Predictions

Here’s how I see the 2026 season going for the Missouri Tigers:

Week 1: vs. Arkansas-Pine Bluff (W)

Mizzou gets the SEC season started on Thursday night and should have absolutely no problems with an overmatched opponent. Even without Ahmad Hardy in the lineup, Jamal Roberts will have a big night and Mizzou should have this victory wrapped up by halftime.

Week 2: at Kansas (W)

I’m never going to pick Mizzou to lose to Kansas. It’s just not going to happen. It pains me to even use a capital “K” to spell Kansas. Road rivalry games aren’t easy, but Mizzou has the more-talented roster and that’ll shine through on the road in Lawrence, especially as the Jayhawks try to get a new starting QB up to speed.

Week 3: vs. Troy (W)

As far as Group of 6 teams go, Troy is always a tricky opponent. But the Tigers are solid at home and Eli Drinkwitz will have his team ready. No upset here.

Week 4: at Mississippi State (W)

I’m of the opinion that this will be the final year in Starkville for Jeff Lebby. That’s not his fault, necessarily. He’s made Mississippi State more competitive than it was under Zach Arnett. But this is a game where Roberts and Hardy (if he’s back in the lineup by this point) should run wild, quieting the Davis Wade crowd and those pesky cowbells.

Week 5: vs. Florida (W)

This is the biggest game of the year for the Tigers, in this writer’s opinion. Jon Sumrall and the Florida Gators come to Faurot Field looking to regain their momentum after starting the year 3-0 but losing in Week 4 at Ole Miss. Drinkwitz knows this is a pivotal game, too. Several tougher games loom large in the following weeks. Mizzou’s offensive line has its best performance of the year so far and the Tigers win by single digits.

Week 6: vs. Texas A&M (L)

Texas A&M makes a return trip to Faurot Field this year, a quirk of switching to a 9-game schedule and refiguring some rivalries. Last year, the Aggies and coach Mike Elko won 38-17 in Columbia. In 2024, the Aggies thumped the Tigers 41-10 in College Station. This team just seems to have Mizzou’s number.

Week 7: at Ole Miss (L)

This will be no easy road trip for the Tigers. Ole Miss will be fully believing its Playoff chances by this point in the season and should be firing on all cylinders with Trinidad Chambliss and Kewan Lacy. Austin Simmons plays well in his return to Oxford, but it isn’t enough to get the Tigers over the hump.

Week 8: OFF

The Tigers enter their bye week with 5 wins, but need to regroup after back-to-back losses.

Week 9: at Arkansas (W)

This rivalry has been one-sided lately, with Mizzou winning 4-straight Battle Line Rivalry contests against Arkansas and 9 of the last 10. Ryan Silverfield should make the Hogs more competitive, but this is still a game the Tigers should win.

Week 10: vs. Texas (L)

Texas is just too good this year. No one on the Mizzou defense is going to be able to stop Cam Coleman. Ryan Wingo should also have a big day against this secondary. And with Damon Wilson II off to Miami, the Tigers will have trouble getting pressure on Arch Manning.

Week 11: at Georgia (L)

This isn’t a spot you want to be in, traveling to Georgia after hosting Texas. The Tigers wouldn’t win this game even if it wasn’t directly after facing the Longhorns, but that just makes me more confident that this will be too tough of an ask for Mizzou.

Week 12: vs. Kentucky (W)

I like Kentucky‘s move to hire Will Stein this offseason, but I don’t think Big Blue Nation will see the benefits of that decision until 2027. I’m predicting a rough year for the Wildcats, so give me the Tigers to pick up win No. 7 in this matchup. Mizzou’s receiving corps of Cayden Lee, Donovan Olugbode and Naeshaun Montgomery show out in this one.

Week 13: vs. Oklahoma (L)

Oklahoma is going to be a problem this year. That defense is stacked at all 3 levels. QB John Mateer was a Heisman contender through the first month of last season before he got injured. The Sooners could really need this game to clinch a Playoff berth. They’ll handle business in CoMo.

2026 Projection: 7-5 (4-5)

The Tigers aren’t going to be pushovers this year. They aren’t going to challenge for the Playoff or anything, but they’ll be a competent team that no one wants to see on their schedule. Eli Drinkwitz and company get to 7 regular-season wins yet again.

12-Team Playoff Berth? No

I do believe that Drinkwitz will be the guy to get the Tigers to the Playoff someday, but he might need to wait until the field expands to 24 teams. He’s had Mizzou on the doorstep before, but this won’t be one of those years. A 7-5 record with a chance to get to 8 wins in a bowl game isn’t the worst thing in the world for the Tigers in 2026.

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