ROCHESTER, N.Y. – Sunday evening will bring some dry breaks in between spotty showers. Most of the shower coverage will hang out in the western Southern Tier but expect some spotty showers throughout the overnight hours and towards Monday morning. Temperatures should stay in the 60s throughout Sunday night with a forecasted low temperature of 65 degrees. As the warm front over the lower Great Lakes continues to inch further east, closer to New York State, moisture will continue to increase overnight. Sunday night will stay a little muggy with dew points in the low-60s and relative humidity increasing to between 90 and 100%. Winds overnight will be variable in direction with speeds between 5 and 10 mph.
Rain shower coverage should increase towards Monday morning as heavier showers in the western Southern Tier move northeast toward the Rochester and Finger Lakes. High temperatures on Monday are, again, expected to be slightly below average around 75 degrees. Expect intermittent showers throughout Monday. Thunderstorms are more likely for Rochester in the afternoon and evening hours. Instability remains low around Rochester, so strong storms are not expected at this time. Winds will stay mainly out of the south/southwest between 10 and 15 mph with some storms containing gusts between 20 and 30 mph.
Current data is showing that shower and storm coverage decreases into Tuesday. However, with dew points in the upper-60s, some sunshine increasing instability, and possible lake breeze boundaries enhancing localized lift, it is possible that we could see limited gusty storms. We will stay green on the Threat Tracker for now as we continue to monitor the high-resolution data that will come in through the next 12-24 hours. Additionally, storm coverage will likely increase into Wednesday with a 70% chance for showers and storms. It will likely be very humid through Tuesday and Wednesday along with high temperatures in the mid-80s. A cold front will eventually drop through Wednesday overnight into Thursday morning. The extended periods of rain Monday through Wednesday carry a very small risk for localized flash flooding. The Excessive Rainfall Outlook has Western New York in a marginal (5%) risk area for exceeding flash flood guidance through Wednesday.
First Alert Weather: Spotty showers continue through Sunday evening with stormy weather expected to start off the week WHEC.com.
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