President Trump’s summer of woes has Democrats daring to hope they might win control of Congress in less than 70 days.
On Tuesday 3 November, Americans will go to the polls and deliver their verdict on the second Trump administration. An unpopular war with Iran, a trade war with Canada, rising gas prices, stubbornly high inflation, and chaotic plans to build a new ballroom at the White House and turn the Lincoln Memorial Reflecting Pool “American flag blue” have left Americans shaking their heads and muttering that this is not what they voted for.
Democrats were always reasonably confident they could capitalise on voters’ frustrations with the economy and win the House of Representatives. Donald Trump’s declaration in May that “I don’t think about Americans’ financial situation” was a ready-made campaign advert for Democrats, delivered gift-wrapped.
But as September’s Labor Day weekend fast approaches in less than two weeks, after which the midterm election campaign begins in earnest, Democrats are now daring to dream that the Senate is within reach too. The Senate map is expanding, claim Democratic strategists, who see a path to victory that could run through multiple states.
President Trump’s approval rating is well below 40 per cent, spelling trouble for Republican candidates, and the respected independent forecaster the Cook Political Report has just moved key Senate races in Texas and Iowa from leaning Republican into the toss-up column. Democrats hold 47 seats in the Senate and must win four more to become the majority party.
If Democrats took control of the House and Senate, Trump would be a lame duck president for the remainder of his term in office, unable to get legislation through Congress without the support of his opponents. Congressional oversight of the Trump administration, now almost entirely lacking, would be stepped up, with aggressive hearings in both chambers into immigration enforcement, the war with Iran, and much else besides. Control of the Senate gives the majority party the ability to confirm federal judges and cabinet nominees; Trump’s controversial nominees in the style of the Secretary of Defence, Pete Hegseth, or Health Secretary, RFK Jr, would not have a hope of being confirmed.
Texas Democratic candidate for the US Senate James Talarico. One respected forecaster has moved the Texas Senate race from leaning Republican into the toss-up column (Photo: Ronaldo Schemidt / AFP via Getty Images)And yet. Before Democrats get too excited about encouraging polling from Senate seats they hope to win in Alaska, Texas, Ohio, Iowa, North Carolina and Maine, Republican strategists are ready with the proverbial jug of cold water. The Republican senator Susan Collins in Maine has a history of outperforming her polls, and Democrats had to scramble to find a candidate to replace their nominee Graham Platner, after his campaign imploded amid a welter of accusations that he was sexually inappropriate with women – accusations he denies. So let’s say for the sake of argument that Democrats can’t win Maine or Ohio but their candidates pull off victories in Iowa, Alaska, Texas and North Carolina – wouldn’t that give the party control of the Senate?
Not so fast, say Republican operatives, who point out that Democrats are also defending seats in two states that Trump won in 2024 – Michigan and Georgia. The Democratic senator Jon Ossoff in Georgia, he who recently coined the viral phrase about President Trump “travelling with Natalie”, looks less vulnerable than he did, according to recent polling. But Michigan is shaping up to be a massive headache for Democrats – and the party’s hopes of winning the Senate may rest on their ability to successfully defend it.
Democrats recently elected progressive Abdul El-Sayed as their Senate candidate for Michigan. His past statements will be fodder for Republicans (Photo: Bill Pugliano/Getty Images)After a closely fought primary election in Michigan defined by divisions over Israel, Democrats elected progressive Dr Abdul El-Sayed as their nominee, who has been critical of Israel and appeared with the controversial streamer Hasan Piker. Piker has been accused of antisemitism – and El-Sayed is under pressure to distance himself from Piker. Republicans, who have more cash on hand currently than Democrats, will spend millions on advertising to make the Michigan Senate campaign a referendum on what they will say are El-Sayed’s extreme left-wing views and links to Piker. As The New York Times’ polling sage Nate Cohn noted, there are clear signs that El-Sayed could underperform a typical Democratic candidate’s vote share by enough to endanger the party’s chances of winning the Michigan Senate seat. Cohn says that historically, candidates of the activist left tend to fare worse than other Democratic candidates. Republicans are determined to define El-Sayed as an activist candidate, and his past statements on defunding the police – which he now says were taken out of context – will be fodder for their ambitions.
Can Democrats really win the Senate? Summer polling always favours the Democrats in Senate races, scoff Republicans. Races tighten as polling day approaches. Yet there is real concern in Republican circles that President Trump’s polling is plumbing new and alarming depths. His instinct to pick fights and double down on unpopular positions is giving Republican candidates no cover – they must either defend and explain his positions, or break with him – which risks incurring the wrath of the still powerful Maga base. If a week is a long time in politics, as British Prime Minister Harold Wilson famously said, then the nine and a half weeks until the midterms is an eternity.
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