Heading into this season, there was no doubt that Daniel Palencia was THE most important reliever in the Cubs’ Opening Day bullpen. The 26-year-old righty finished his breakout 2025 campaign as the Cubs’ closer, earning a 2.91 ERA in the regular season before a really excellent showing throughout the playoffs. Beyond him, I’d argue, Hunter Harvey was the guy with the most upside. The Cubs signed Harvey to a $6M deal back in December, hoping a healthy Harvey could do what he’s pretty much always done while healthy: Throw heat and get guys out.
Unfortunately, injuries have derailed BOTH of their seasons almost entirely.
Daniel Palencia has twice been on the Injured List, first for a strained lat in April and currently for elbow inflammation, resulting in just 16.2 IP and 3 saves through today (July 26). And the story has been even worse for Hunter Harvey, who hit the IL with triceps inflammation on April 9 and hasn’t been seen since. He’s thrown just 4.0 innings for the Cubs this year. That’s more than $1M earned per inning!
But perhaps their luck — or perhaps the Cubs’ luck — is about to turn.
According to Craig Counsell (via Meghan Montemurro on X), Daniel Palencia (whose injury they’re now identifying as a flexor strain), “had a great bullpen Saturday,” and will “progress to an up-down bullpen Tuesday then a live BP.”
If all that goes well, he’s going to begin his rehab assignment a week from tomorrow!
That puts him on schedule to return to the big league team sometime in early-mid August, with plenty of time to impact the race down the stretch (and hopefully pitch meaningful, high-leverage innings in October).
Once more, and more surprisngly, Montemurro says that Hunter Harvey has “progressed to the same timeline as Palencia.” And Craig Counsell’s comments were again unexpectedly optimistic for a guy who I had all but written off for the rest of the season simply because we hadn’t heard an ounce of progress in months: “[Harvey is] throwing the ball really well so there’s optimism there. Obviously we have a bunch more steps to get to, but right now everything is going well.”
Those are both really big, positive developments for a Cubs pitching staff that is finally starting to heal up and settle in. Remember, Edward Cabrera is also expected back sometime in mid-August, and the early word on Ben Brown is positive, too.
In the meantime, the Cubs bullpen has found a little bit of a rhythm of late, with guys like Ryan Rolison, Jacob Webb, Gavin Hollowell, and Caleb Thielbar turning meaningful opportunities into successful outings for well over a month. Plus, with Javier Assad also now in the bullpen, and Justin Steele/Ben Brown/Colin Rea perhaps eventually emerging there, as well, the Cubs’ crop of relievers could soon look a whooooole lot different, and more intimidating, than it did a couple of months ago.
We’ve still got a ways to go before we get there — and the Cubs should ABSOLUTELY still acquire an impact reliever or two at the deadline, if you ask me — but this is decidedly good news. A bullpen with Palencia, Harvey, and Webb at the back end is just an entirely different animal. Throw in any of those other internal additions plus one or two trades, and you might just wind up with a bullpen that can take you through October.
Again, long way to go, but this has me feeling good on a Sunday afternoon.
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