When it comes to the new Prime Minister’s dealing with his American counterpart Carly Simon’s “Coming Around Again” is the soundtrack, even if Andy Burnham’s dominant key is all about new beginnings. In his first big interview with the BBC, Burnham said that he is prepared to call out Donald Trump and that he would “always put British interests first”.
It is only four months since his predecessor also said: “I will always put the national interest first.” Students of Burnham-speak will note that the new incumbent did elaborate to the BBC that he would be prepared to “voice a different idea that is right for Britain” in dealings with DC – a subtly defiant change. The real question is what that idea would mean. The strains of dealing with an erratic US leader on fronts which affect British economic and security interests are getting wider and more frequent.
One US diplomat who is no Trumpian acolyte nonetheless jokes about Britain’s “Trump angst”. He means that we are constantly talking about how prepared it is to stand up to the American in a way that a psychotherapist would find interesting. But pretty much everything about the crisis in the Strait of Hormuz raises questions for the early Burnham project.
The first is the economic impact of falling out with the presidential administration. As important as devolution may turn out to be, its impact on the economy, growth and the national finances will not be felt quickly – whereas the impact of the Gulf crisis most certainly will. Crude oil prices have hit $100 a barrel and will not trend downward until a ceasefire looks a lot steadier with Tehran than it is.
In the short term, this is an economic tourniquet on the UK which means Burnham’s promised cut on electricity bills for consumers is likely to be cancelled out if oil and gas prices are still rising from October. It also raises pressure for Burnham to defy his Foreign Secretary, and former energy secretary, Ed Miliband’s reluctance to open up the North Sea oil and gas fields for drilling – or at least allow some degree of gas extraction to recommence.
Furthermore, the UK does play a role in the Iran crisis. Assurances that it has “nothing to do with Britain” repeated by the last Labour government turned into a massive row in Cabinet over the “defensive” posture of aiding Gulf allies and allowing the use of US bases while America is at war – decisions which would certainly be seen as offensive by Tehran. Those choices still exist – and will flare up if the hostilities intensify, demanding some daunting judgements from Burnham and will test the Foreign Secretary too.
More broadly, big ticket defence items on which the UK’s security depends are mass produced in the US – F35 Jets from Lockheed in Texas for example, which has the added complication of having several key components provided by Israel – a red rag to a lot of pro-Palestinian sentiment in Labour. The hard truth beyond the soft centre of Burnham’s promises is that ideological comfort zones these days often clash with geopolitical realties and emergencies.
A steady tone is something the UK needs to maintain in its dealings with complex conflict zones and our leaders need the language to deal with difficult powers – including the US itself. One of the main message carriers between DC and London told me bracingly on that score: “Go sort out your own problems with immigration and your economy before you lecture us.”
Let us remember that the reason so many prime ministers since Trump took power in 2016 have tried to woo rather than irritate a maverick, self-interested and punitive US leader is not that they did not want to “stand up for” the national interest, but that the price of getting the manner of this wrong is measured in rapid damage to trade and a drain on the shaky UK economy. There is no EU solution to replace such losses, and even if there were, America is a vital part of our trade geometry in an era when all powers are less open to give and take.
At the end of the upbeat Burnham first week, a blunderbuss promptly headed across the Atlantic, with the restoration of 10 per cent tariffs in another sweeping global move. Downing Street emphasised that the deal on whisky tariffs, a personal boon to King Charles during his US visit, remain unaffected and medical technology and the classic car industry are still outside the levies, so it could all have been worse.
The less palatable version is that after an immense diplomatic push, we are back in many ways at a comparative disadvantage in US trade compared to the EU – in areas in textiles, clothing, chemicals and other luxury and food items. One upside is the continuation of Varun Chandra as the PM’s US chief business advisor and US trade guru – a figure well-trusted in Washington and who stayed clear of the personnel fallout from the Peter Mandelson ambassadorial debacle. Trust matters a lot when so much else is shaky.
Right now, wider relations are rocky. From Washington’s perspective, the UK has acquired an assortment of key ministers on foreign and defence who grate with a reactive administration. That means the President does not know the PM nor does he trust him (this goes both ways). Meanwhile the UK is a security partner in a period of conflict around the crucial Strait of Hormuz, but insists at home it is not involved in the Iran crisis.
Feeling free to disagree with this US President is a necessary skillset, but nowhere near the whole story of the tests and choices which Burnham will face. A lot of them will mean having a hotline to Washington and using it. The guy who picks up can cause sleepless nights. Not keeping communication open and frequent can cause a whole lot more.
Anne McElvoy is co-host of Politics at Sam and Anne’s and executive editor at POLITICO
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