Betteridge’s Law of Headlines states that “Any headline that ends in a question mark can be answered by the word no.” And to an extent, that does apply here with Mason Miller and the Chicago Cubs. But I don’t think it’s quite so simple *and* I think it requires some of the context provided by Jeff Passan in the initial rumor to actually dispel.
Plus, even if the Cubs aren’t going to be involved, the moment of the game’s top closer is going to be of SIGNIFICANT interest to most of us, especially because the Cubs should be in the market for high-end relief help.
Mason Miller Time
Okay, first, the rumor, via Jeff Passan on ESPN TV:
Mason Miller is definitely availalable.
Now, does that mean at the end of the day, A.J. Preller, who is one of the most prolific traders of all executives in baseball is going to flip him just a year after acquiring him for Leo De Vries, who is one of the best prospects in baseball? Not necessarily. But it’s not prospects. The Padres need Major League ready starting pitching.
And, if you’re a team like the Seattle Mariners that has a deep rotation already, and, in Ryan Sloan and Kade Anderson, two of the best pitching prospects in baseball on the cusp of being ready for the big leagues, it’s something you have to consider. If you’re the Yankees, and you can pair him with David Bednar, and Tim Hill, and Brent Headrick at the back end of the bullpen, Fernando Cruz, it makes you just so much better and so much deeper.
And Mason Miller … him moving would help make what could be a boring deadline a whole lot more exciting.
Separately, in his article about the top trade candidates earlier today, Passan put it in writing that “the Padres are considering moving” Mason Miller, even going as far as to float a concept they’re trying to push: attaching Xander Bogaerts’ contract to him (which is a terrible idea for the Padres, because it would SEVERELY limit their return).
*Bogaerts is due $25M per year for the next SEVEN years still.
Passan lists the Yankees, Mariners, Phillies, Brewers, Pirates, and Rays as potential landing spots.
Okay, so what about the Cubs?
Let’s start with the case for Miller:
First, obviously, every single team in baseball can use Mason Miller. But the Cubs are especially hurting for impact pitching and velocity in all phases. Their bullpen is a mess, and their closer has 3 saves total this year. And pretty much all of our eggs are in Jacob Webb’s basket.
And seeing as they are actually quite likely to make the playoffs, it’s not like they don’t need him this year as badly as anyone else.
Second, Miller has three more years of control AFTER this one. And considering that I’ve frequently made the case that the Cubs should be among the most aggressive teams for controllable starting pitching, the same argument can be made for a reliever of his quality.
Miller is as close to a sure thing as we have maybe ever seen in this game. He is the definition of dominant and everything the Cubs are lacking right now on the pitching side.
And a reminder: this Cubs window does NOT close at all after this year. There are a lot of outgoing free agents, yes, but a majority of them are not exactly guys you’re stressing about losing too badly. Some are, no doubt. But the Cubs will play next season with Pete Crow-Armstrong, Michael Busch, Nico Hoerner, Dansby Swanson, Alex Bregman, Ben Brown, Justin Steele, Edward Cabrera, Cade Horton (eventually), Daniel Palencia, Matt Shaw, Miguel Amaya, plus the bubble guys/top prospects that don’t get traded like Moises Ballesteros, Pedro Ramirez, Owen Ayers, etc. There’s still a lot of talent in-house.
They’ll need a nice offseason, yes, but they have a ton of money coming off the books. Plus, again, this has been my argument all year: They need to do some of their “buying” at this deadline. Not all over the winter.
And finally, though it feels like playing with fire, there has been a lot of talk about converting Mason Miller into a starting pitcher, which we know they can use above all else (that’d be an offseason thing, but still).
However, as I said upfront, I don’t think this is something we should expect.
For one, the Cubs just don’t really have the (healthy) big-league pitching the Padres are reportedly seeking. Jaxon Wiggins could maybe be considered a top, big-league-ready (ish) pitching prospect, but he’s not remotely the caliber of the two Mariners prospects Passan mentioned. They’re both top-10 prospects in all of MLB and two of the top pitching prospects in the game, bar none. And he’s just one guy.
Meanwhile, I don’t think trading Ben Brown (whose value has also absolutely taken a hit because of the recurring neck injury) makes any sense.
So the point here being: unless the Padres are actually cool with positional prospects, for which the Cubs could make a very compelling package, they just don’t line up.
Separately, this just doesn’t fit Jed Hoyer’s M.O.
Maybe the calculus is different for the literal best reliever in the game, and maybe his aggressiveness on the bullpen over the last two years (trying hard for Tanner Scott and then signing a bunch of guys last winter) signals a change in philosophy. But … I still just don’t see it.
But if Miller is available, that could still help the Cubs.
He’s just one more potential impact reliever on the market, for which the top buyers could position themselves, leaving whatever’s left over for the Cubs. And that could be especially valuable as it now seems that Aroldis Chapman won’t be dealt because of the Red Sox’s 14-game winning streak.
If the Cubs did want to go this route, but didn’t want to pay the king’s ransom for Miller (a ransom we’ve already established they may not even be able to match), I suspect they’d find more ground in discussions with the Astros for Josh Hader.
The Cubs and Astros have made a lot of deals over the last few years. Hader has a history with Craig Counsell. And Hader comes with two more years of control after 2026.
In any case, as Passan mentions, there is a very real chance that Mason Miller could be dealt this deadline, perhaps alongside Tarik Skubal, which means the two literal best pitchers in the game in their field are on the table. And I think that makes for a fascinating next two weeks.
And just as a final thought to really drive this home: Jeff Passan isn’t remotely alone in suspecting Miller is on the block. Both Ken Rosenthal and Bob Nightengale said as much recently.
From Ken Rosenthal:
“The problem for Preller is that his team — .500 and 3 1/2 games back in the NL wild-card race — isn’t very good. The San Diego Padres rank last in the majors in runs per game. Their rotation is 27th in ERA. And while right-handers Nick Pivetta and Joe Musgrove both are tracking toward August returns from elbow injuries, who knows how much help they actually will provide?
The best course for Preller probably is to sell, particularly if he can extract a monster return for closer Mason Miller. Third baseman Manny Machado is 34 with a .708 OPS. Shortstop Xander Bogaerts is 33 with a .648. The Padres’ window already might be starting to close.”
And from Bob Nightengale:
“The San Diego Padres looked like they could be a formidable threat to the Los Angeles Dodgers, and now after the past month are talking about unloading All-Star closer Mason Miller and putting their high-priced stars on the market ….
One year, they’re trading away perhaps the finest prospect in baseball, shortstop Leo De Vries, for Athletics All-Star closer Mason Miller.
The next, they’re talking about trading him away.”
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