Like many teams, the Padres aren’t firmly in buyer or seller status as the August 3 deadline approaches. They are 48-48 and 3.5 games back of a playoff spot in the National League. Kevin Acee of The San Diego Union-Tribune writes that people in the organization are saying the club’s performance after the All-Star Break will determine whether they buy or sell. President of baseball operations A.J. Preller spoke to reporters recently, including AJ Cassavell of MLB.com, and his comments reflect that on-the-fence status.
“We’re going to go into the process open-minded to see what’s there and see what can help our club,” Preller said. “We’re going to go in open-minded about whether it’s acquiring players or looking at it if we have to go another direction. All those things are on the table.”
If the club does decide to sell, there would be some obvious candidates. Adrián Morejón, Jason Adam, Miguel Andujar, Lucas Giolito, Griffin Canning, Germán Márquez, Walker Buehler, Ty France and Luis Rengifo are all impending free agents. They should all be available, though most of them won’t have much trade value due to injuries or underperformance, apart from Morejón.
Deciding whether or not to move controllable pieces would be a tougher call, with Mason Miller being the most intriguing option on the roster. Preller was asked about the possibility of a Miller trade and said the clubs plans to keep Miller but also didn’t expressly say the closer is untouchable.
“Obviously, Mason is the best in the game,” Preller said. “So you’re always going to have people that are going to be interested in somebody that’s the best in their craft and at what they do. Since we made the deal last year, he’s performed as good as you could want somebody to perform. We made the deal with the intention that Mason is going to be here for a long time. He’s done an unbelievable job. And our intent is still the same as when we made the deal last year.”
The Padres certainly don’t have to consider a Miller trade this summer. As Preller alluded to, he is considered by many to be the best closer in the game right now. He has a 0.91 earned run average, 48.3% strikeout rate, 8.7% walk rate and 47.6% ground ball rate this year. He is controlled for three seasons beyond the current campaign.
There are reasons why perhaps the Friars might think about it, however. Due to many aggressive trades in recent years, the farm system is in rough shape. Last week, Baseball America ranked the Padres’ farm the worst in the majors. Miller would have massive value right now, given his remaining club control and affordability. He would be the club’s best avenue for restocking that farm system, though they could also target big-league ready players.
They surely wouldn’t get a headliner like the one they gave up to get Miller, as they sent Leo De Vries to the Athletics in that swap. De Vries was, and still is, considered by some to be one of the top five prospects in the league. Those prospects are so rarely moved and the fact that the Padres did pull the trigger points to their unique aggressiveness. If they were to consider a second trade, they would likely have to accept that they would not get a centerpiece like that but could still fetch a big haul of talent, likely spread out among many players.
A trade would open a big hole in the big league roster but that could happen anyway. Major elbow surgeries have become commonplace in the modern game, especially for those with big velocity. Miller is averaging 101.3 miles per hour on his fastball this year, tops in the league among those with at least 30 innings pitched. He already sprained his ulnar collateral ligament in 2023, though he recovered from that injury without surgery.
It would be a bold move to trade Miller just one year after acquiring him but the Padres have done similar reversals before, most notable trading Juan Soto to the Yankees about a year and a half after acquiring him from the Nationals. The deal saw the Padres get Soto and Josh Bell for a five-player package, retroactively headlined by James Wood, CJ Abrams and MacKenzie Gore. When they turned around and sent Soto to the Bronx, the big part of the return was Michael King, though they also got prospect Drew Thorpe and used him as the headliner in a deal to get Dylan Cease from the White Sox.
Preller has not been shy about getting creative to accomplish the team’s goals. Even if they sell at this deadline, they are still going to be a win-now club in the near term while they have big money committed to guys like Fernando Tatis Jr., Manny Machado, Xander Bogaerts, Jackson Merrill and Jake Cronenworth. Theoretically, a second Miller trade could allow them to bring back multiple pieces to help the club in 2027 and beyond. The bullpen would be weakened but they have other arms would could step up in Miller’s absence.
One thing that’s not clear for the Padres is what kind of payroll parameters they’re going to be working with. The club’s payroll peaked in 2023, per Cot’s Baseball Contracts, but has been scaled back since late owner Peter Seidler passed away in November of that year. The tighter pursestrings have seemingly been a factor in the club being so willing to trade from the farm system in recent years. The Seidler family reportedly reached an agreement to sell the club to private equity billionaire José E. Feliciano and his wife Kwanza Jones earlier this year but that sale still hasn’t become official yet.
As part of this week’s All-Star festivities, commissioner Rob Manfred spoke to the media and said the deal will get done, per Acee. However, Manfred declined to provide a timeline and Acee says the deal may not get the official rubber stamp until August.
Feliciano and Jones have deep pockets and it has been speculated by some people in the industry that they could greenlight greater spending once they take control of the club. But if the transfer won’t be complete until after the deadline, it’s unclear how that will impact Preller and what he is able to do while trades are still allowed. Dennis Lin of The Athletic reports that Feliciano and Jones have been in communication with the front office and that the club might have the flexibility to add to the payroll with their deadline moves.
Photo courtesy of Denis Poroy, Imagn Images
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