If you want to win real money at a golf tournament, the short prices at the top of the board are not where you find it. You find it deeper down. That is exactly why the RBC Canadian Open sleeper picks are worth your attention this week, and why two long shots in particular, Sudarshan Yellamaraju and Zac Bauchou, belong on your radar before the first tee time on Thursday.
The 2026 RBC Canadian Open runs June 11 to 14 at TPC Toronto at Osprey Valley in Caledon, Ontario. It is a par 70 that stretches to roughly 7,389 yards on the championship card. Tommy Fleetwood, Matt Fitzpatrick, Sam Burns, Brooks Koepka, and a few other big names sit at the top of the odds. But this is the final tune-up before next week’s U.S. Open at Shinnecock Hills, the field is missing Rory McIlroy and Scottie Scheffler, and the course is one of the more scorable tests on tour. That combination is what opens the door for a long shot to crash the leaderboard.
Why Long Shots Have a Real Chance at TPC Toronto
This is only the second year the Canadian Open has been played at TPC Toronto, and last year it played about a stroke and a half under par on average. It is a modern parkland layout with wide fairways near 37 yards across, large and fairly flat bentgrass and Poa greens, and water in play on just three holes. In other words, it does not punish mistakes the way a U.S. Open setup does.
When a course plays soft and scorable, the gap between the elite players and the field narrows. A red-hot mid-tier ball striker who gets the putter going can hang around the lead, because he is not getting buried by a brutal setup. Last year five of the top seven players gained four or more strokes putting, which tells you the leaderboard was decided on the greens, not by raw talent off the tee.
Rain is in the forecast Thursday and Friday, which should keep the course soft and receptive early. Wind is the one variable that could tighten scoring, especially Thursday afternoon and Sunday. For long-shot hunters, the soft-and-scorable version is the one you are rooting for, because it gives a sleeper a path to a low number.
Mar 29, 2026; Houston, Texas, USA; Sudarshan Yellamaraju hits a tee shot on the first hole during the final round of the Texas Children’s Houston Open golf tournament. Mandatory Credit: Erik Williams-Imagn ImagesSudarshan Yellamaraju: The Home Long Shot With Upside
Sudarshan Yellamaraju is a rookie and the top Canadian on the FedExCup points list, and he gets to tee it up in his home country’s national open. His odds to win sit in the range of +6500 to +7500 across most sportsbooks, which is firmly in long-shot territory.
Why is he worth a look? Start with the spot. Playing a national open in front of a home crowd is a real edge for a young player who feels comfortable on these grounds, and the energy of the gallery can carry a rookie through a fast start. The course also rewards total driving and putting more than it rewards pure power, which keeps a developing player in the conversation if he keeps the ball in play and rolls it well on the bent and Poa surface.
You should be realistic. Asking any rookie to win outright is a tall order, and the smarter way to back a player at this number is usually a top-20 or a top-40 finish market, or a small each-way sprinkle if your sportsbook offers it. The point is not to bet the farm on Yellamaraju to lift the trophy. The point is that a home-soil long shot at a scorable course is the kind of profile that can return value in the finishing-position markets even if he never sniffs the lead on Sunday.
Zac Bauchou: The Deep Long Shot Trending Up
Zac Bauchou is the deeper play of the two, with outright odds floating around +13000 and stretching even longer at some books. That is a true triple-digit price, the kind of ticket that pays for a long time if it ever hits.
So why single him out instead of the dozens of other names at similar numbers? His approach play has been trending in the right direction, and that matters a lot at TPC Toronto. The course asks for a heavy diet of wedge shots from inside 125 yards plus a chunk of long approaches over 200 yards, with the middle of the bag devalued. A player whose iron game is heating up fits that ask. He has been flying under the radar, which is part of the appeal, because the market has not adjusted his price the way it would for a more familiar name in form.
At a number this long, Bauchou is best treated as a tiny outright sprinkle or a building block in a daily fantasy lineup rather than a core bet. The math on a +13000 ticket is simple. You are going to lose it far more often than not, so the stake should be small enough that a string of misses does not dent your bankroll. But the upside is exactly why deep long shots exist on the board, and a hot approach week on a soft course is the scenario that turns one of these tickets into a memorable payout.
May 23, 2026; McKinney, Texas, USA; Zach Bauchou lines up a putt on the first green during the third round of THE CJ CUP Byron Nelson golf tournament. Mandatory Credit: Raymond Carlin III-Imagn ImagesA Few More Sleepers to Watch
Yellamaraju and Bauchou are the headliners, but they are not the only deeper names worth a glance this week. A handful of others fit the soft, scorable profile.
Matti Schmid: Long off the tee with a solid record on bent and Poa greens, the kind of higher-upside, lower-floor profile that can pop in a big field at a long number. Jackson Suber: A name with a notable gap between the betting models and his price, which is often where deeper value lives. Michael Brennan: A trending ball striker who has been a repeated pick in the betting community for this type of driver-heavy, spike-friendly course.None of these are sure things, and that is the whole point of a sleeper. You are buying upside at a discount, accepting a low hit rate, and keeping the stakes small enough that the long shots stay fun rather than stressful.
How to Actually Bet RBC Canadian Open Long Shots
Backing long shots the right way is as much about structure as it is about picking the correct name. Here is how to approach it.
Keep your stakes small. A long shot is a low-probability bet, so size it as a fraction of what you would put on a favorite. Use finishing-position markets. Top-10, top-20, and top-40 bets give a sleeper more ways to cash than an outright win, and the prices are still generous deeper in the field. Look for each-way options. If your sportsbook offers an each-way market, it pays a portion of the win odds if your player finishes inside the placement spots, which softens the all-or-nothing nature of a long shot. Spread across a few names. Rather than one long shot, a small basket of two or three deeper plays gives you more swings at a big number. Shop for the best price. Long-shot odds vary widely between sportsbooks, and an extra few thousand on the price of a +13000 ticket is real value. Most books are running new-customer offers this week, so it pays to compare.The goal is not to predict the exact winner from the bottom of the board. The goal is to give yourself a cheap shot at an outsized payout while keeping the bulk of your bankroll on the bets you feel best about.
Common Mistakes When Betting Golf Long Shots
The biggest mistake is treating a long shot like a main bet. If you are wagering the same amount on a +13000 sleeper that you put on a +1200 favorite, the math is working against you in a hurry. Size these plays down.
Another common error is chasing the longest number on the board just because it pays the most. Price alone is not a reason to bet a player. You want a long shot with a reason behind it, like a course fit, a form trend, or a favorable spot, not just a big number next to an unfamiliar name.
Finally, do not ignore the weather and the setup. If the wind kicks up and scoring tightens, the soft-and-scorable path that helps these sleepers can close fast. Check the forecast before you lock in your card, and be willing to adjust if the conditions change.
May 24, 2026; McKinney, Texas, USA; Zach Bauchou plays his shot from the second tee during the final round of THE CJ CUP Byron Nelson golf tournament. Mandatory Credit: Raymond Carlin III-Imagn ImagesFrequently Asked Questions
Who are the best RBC Canadian Open sleeper picks for 2026?
Sudarshan Yellamaraju and Zac Bauchou are two of the most interesting long shots this week. Yellamaraju is the top Canadian on the FedExCup list playing in his home national open at odds around +6500 to +7500, and Bauchou is a deeper play near +13000 whose approach play has been trending up. Matty Schmid, Jackson Suber, and Michael Brennan are additional names to watch.
What are Zac Bauchou’s odds to win the RBC Canadian Open?
Bauchou’s outright odds sit around +13000 and stretch even longer at some sportsbooks, making him a true deep long shot. At that price he is best used as a small outright sprinkle or a daily fantasy piece rather than a core bet.
Why is TPC Toronto good for long shots?
TPC Toronto at Osprey Valley played about a stroke and a half under par last year, with wide fairways and large, flat greens. A scorable course narrows the gap between the favorites and the field, and putting was the main separator last year, which gives a hot mid-tier player a real path to the leaderboard.
What is the best way to bet a golf long shot?
Keep the stakes small, consider finishing-position markets like top-10 or top-20 instead of only the outright win, look for each-way options, and spread your money across a couple of names rather than one. Long shots are low-probability bets, so they should make up a small slice of your golf card.
Is Yellamaraju a good bet to win outright?
Winning outright is a long ask for any rookie, so a top-20 or top-40 finish market is usually the smarter way to back Yellamaraju. The home-crowd spot and a scorable course give him upside in the finishing-position markets even if he does not contend for the title.
Responsible Gambling
Betting on golf long shots is supposed to be fun, and the only way to keep it that way is to manage your bankroll. Decide before the week starts how much you are comfortable putting at risk, and treat that number as your entertainment budget rather than money you are counting on to come back.
Long shots lose far more often than they win, so size these bets small and never chase a loss by piling more onto the next ticket. A good rule is to keep any single long shot to a small fraction of your weekly golf budget, which lets you ride out the inevitable cold streaks without doing real damage.
Set limits on your deposits and your time, and step away if the betting stops being enjoyable. Wager only what you can afford to lose, and remember that no pick, sleeper or favorite, is ever a sure thing.
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